inventory-thresholds

name	inventory-thresholds
description	Concrete rules for reorder timing, festival stock multipliers, dead-stock identification, low-stock display thresholds, and inventory display caps. Used by inventory-planner every daily run — never decide by feel.

Inventory Thresholds

All numbers below are tuned for an Indian dropshipping store on a Dropdash supply chain (3-7 day domestic restock, 10-20 day overseas restock). Replace LEAD_DAYS with the SKU's actual restock lead time when computing.

1. Reorder point (RoP)

RoP_units = velocity_per_day × (LEAD_DAYS + safety_days)
safety_days = 3 (default)  | 7 (for top-3 SKU by revenue)  | 14 (during festival window T-21 to T-7)

When current inventory drops to RoP, flag for reorder.

SKU class	LEAD_DAYS	safety_days	Effective trigger
IndiaMART (domestic)	5	3	velocity × 8 days of stock
Dropdash partner-stocked	4	3	velocity × 7 days of stock
AliExpress agent	17	3	velocity × 20 days of stock
Local manufacturer	10	3	velocity × 13 days of stock

Use the SKU's recorded supplier route (Notion Product Pipeline → Notes URL or supplier metafield).

2. Festival stock multipliers

Apply these BEFORE computing RoP during the festival window. Multiplier applies to forecast velocity, not current velocity.

Festival	Window applies	Multiplier	Pillar product types affected
Diwali (PEAK)	T-21 to T-3	3.0×	Everything; especially gifting, decor, electronics
Raksha Bandhan	T-14 to T-3	2.0×	Gifting, accessories, beauty
Independence Day	T-7 to T-0	1.4×	Broad
Hariyali Teej / Karwa Chauth	T-14 to T-3	2.2×	Apparel, gifting (regional N)
Onam	T-14 to T-3	2.2×	Regional S
Christmas + NYE	T-14 to T-3	1.8×	Gifting, gadgets
Mother's Day	T-7 to T-0	1.5×	Gifting, beauty
Bhai Dooj	T-7 to T-0	1.6×	Gifting
Valentine's	T-14 to T-0	1.6×	Gifting, accessories

For SKUs not in the affected pillar for a given festival, no multiplier is applied — but flag them anyway because spillover demand happens.

Pitru Paksha (Sep, ~16 days, varies by year) — apply a 0.7× multiplier for celebratory products (per the indian-dropshipping skill). Don't reorder during this window unless RoP is breached on its own.

3. Stockout severity bands

Days of stock remaining	Severity	Action
≥14 days	🟢 Healthy	None
8-13 days	🟡 Reorder soon	inventory-planner flags; ops-planner schedules reorder
4-7 days	🟠 Reorder now	Operator alert; consider pausing scaling on this SKU
1-3 days	🔴 Stockout imminent	ads-manager pauses ad sets for this SKU; emergency reorder if possible
0 days (out)	🚫 Archive product	Set product status to archived (not 0 inventory) to avoid Meta algorithm punishment; flag for reactivation when restocked

4. Dead-stock identification

A SKU is dead stock if all true:

• 0 sales in last 30 days
• Inventory > 20 units (cost-of-capital threshold)
• Not currently in a planned festival window (a SKU might be intentionally held for an upcoming push)

Action options for dead stock (operator decides):

• Clearance discount: 30-40% off via ops-planner discount creation, push for 14 days
• Bundle: pair with an active SKU, push as a duo
• Supplier return: if supplier accepts (Dropdash sometimes does)
• Retire: archive product, write killed-product post-mortem

5. Display rules (storefront-side)

Inventory level	Display behaviour
≥50 units	Standard "In stock" badge
11-49 units	"In stock" + delivery ETA shown
5-10 units	Show "Only X left" — but only if X is real, never fake urgency
1-4 units	Show "Only X left", elevate ad-set frequency cap to milk last sales
0 units	Product set to archived; not displayed

Never display inventory above 200 as a hard cap on storefront — caps are visual ("In stock"), not numeric. Numeric inventory >200 in Shopify is fine for backend but should not be exposed to buyers.

6. Inventory cap on Shopify backend

Set realistic numeric inventory in Shopify too. Range: 50-200 units for normal SKUs. Anything outside this range looks fabricated:

• Below 50 — looks like stockout coming, may suppress purchase
• Above 200 — looks fake; the audit caught Vacuum Cleaner at 1,799 (clearly fabricated)

Exception: during festival prep, set to whatever the festival multiplier requires (could legitimately be 500+ for a Diwali peak).

7. Dropdash sync drift detection

Per inventory-planner's daily check:

• For each Dropdash-vendored SKU, compare updatedAt against the timestamp of our last metafield/tag write (logged in Notion Daily Standup Log if available, else last commit on the harness)
• If updatedAt > our_last_write AND tags contain DropDash.Entity.Shopify.TagsViewModel → drift confirmed, store-manager re-applies

8. Auto-execute boundary

inventory-planner may execute automatically:

• Flag stockout, reorder-soon, dead-stock to operator
• Compute reorder quantities and dates per skill
• Log inventory snapshots to Notion

inventory-planner must propose and wait for operator approval:

• Archiving a SKU (even if dead-stock)
• Bulk inventory adjustments >5 SKUs at once
• Discount code creation for clearance
• Supplier-return requests