菜单
Pre-mortem analysis, scenario planning, future state narratives, and contingency frameworks. Use before finalizing any Strategy Kernel, when planning major initiatives, or when preparing Plan B triggers.
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基于 SOC 职业分类
Nudge-based choice architecture for 3-option selection UI — smart default vs active choice, outcome mapping, channel factors, RECAP, operational transparency with source attribution, post-decision reinforcement, error-forgiving undo, peak-end session design, user contribution acknowledgment. Use when presenting options to founders, designing choice flows, or optimizing decision quality.
Cash Machine 10-step B2B sales pipeline with 3 presets, verifiable checkpoints per step, trajectory logging, bottleneck detection with utilization formula, lead qualification gate (BANT 6-criteria), pipeline velocity and stall detection (2x threshold), two-tier probability scoring, BBS tracking, end-of-quarter syndrome detection. Use when managing sales pipeline, detecting bottlenecks, or forecasting revenue.
5-question review framework (result, execution, plan, strategy, analysis), KPI propagation monitoring with 4-layer anomaly patterns, One-Way/Two-Way Door classification, withdrawal decision protocol, and assumption provenance auditing. Use during periodic reviews, buffer zone changes, or when evaluating why results diverge from expectations.
Structured root cause analysis using WHERE (MECE decomposition) then WHY (causal structure diagrams) pipeline. Includes coin-flip detection, logical-leap detection, and vicious cycle intervention. Use when buffer enters YELLOW/RED, when metrics stall, or when Actions execute but don't produce results.
Rumelt's Crux framework for building Strategy Kernels — Diagnosis (standard + reframed), Guiding Policy, Coherent Actions. Use when creating or reviewing strategic plans, when actions feel scattered, or when the founder asks "what should we focus on?"
Auto-generate 5 sales support materials for pipeline Steps 5-7 — competitive comparison table, 3-year TCO analysis, internal proposal template, objection rebuttals, phased implementation timeline. Core principle is arming the buyer to sell internally. Use when deals reach Step 5+ or when win rates at Steps 5-7 are low.
| name | pre-mortem |
| description | Pre-mortem analysis, scenario planning, future state narratives, and contingency frameworks. Use before finalizing any Strategy Kernel, when planning major initiatives, or when preparing Plan B triggers. |
| type | skill |
Failure cause: "LinkedIn organic saturated — ICP exhausted in target segment"
Prevention: Track unique ICP accounts remaining; alert at <500
Plan B: Pivot to content-first -> community -> warm intro strategy
Early warning KPI: new connection acceptance rate declining
Trigger: acceptance rate < 15% for 2 consecutive weeks
Define quantitative trigger points for each scenario. When thresholds are hit, Plan B activates AUTOMATICALLY — removing human judgment to prevent bias (loss aversion, sunk cost).
| Scenario | Condition | Response |
|---|---|---|
| OPTIMISTIC | Exceeds target by 20%+ | Continue scaling. Increase targets. |
| BASE | 80-120% of target | Maintain strategy. Increase effort on constraint Driver. |
| PESSIMISTIC | 40-80% of target + buffer RED + growth <3%/week for 3 weeks | Auto-activate Plan B: pivot channel, reposition ICP, adjust pricing |
| CATASTROPHIC | <40% of target + buffer >90% + negative growth for 2 weeks | Full strategy reset: rebuild Strategy Kernel from scratch |
Before executing any major initiative, write success AS IF it already happened:
FUTURE STATE NARRATIVE:
"It is 6 months from now. [Startup] has 100 paying enterprise
customers. Primary channel: LinkedIn thought-leadership (28% response).
Referral program contributed 30%. Average deal: $24K/year, 125% NDR."
INTERNAL FAQ (hard questions):
Q: "What if LinkedIn reach declines further?"
A: "Content -> community -> warm intro fallback (Plan B ready)"
Creates a three-part planning package: what success looks like (narrative) + what could go wrong (pre-mortem) + how we'll get there (strategy kernel).
After any Plan B activation, define measurable 100-day milestones:
Prevents drifting in the new plan. Each gate has explicit decision rules.
Monitor where each Driver/channel sits on its lifecycle:
Every Action proposal and Strategy Kernel includes structured counter-arguments as STANDARD output:
Devil's Advocate:
1. "LinkedIn organic reach declining ~15% YoY. Channel may saturate."
2. "Segment data shows email outperforms for enterprise deals >$50K."
3. "Requires ~10h/week founder time — 25% of capacity."
Risk assessment: MODERATE
Recommendation: Proceed with 30-day review gate.
Plan B if underperforms: Pivot to warm intros via mutual connections.
| Anti-Pattern | Signal | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Single-plan thinking | No Plan B defined | "What happens if this doesn't work? Let's define triggers now." |
| Vague contingencies | "We'll figure it out" | "Contingencies need specific triggers and pre-defined responses." |
| Plan B avoidance | Emotional attachment to Plan A | "Pre-committing to triggers removes emotion from the switching decision." |
| Late Plan B prep | Preparing alternatives during decline | "S-curve: prepare alternatives during growth, not decline." |
| Optimism bias | Ignoring pre-mortem results | "The pre-mortem identified real risks. Ignoring them doesn't eliminate them." |
When applying this framework, produce the FULL output immediately. Do not ask the founder which parts to analyze or which options to consider. Infer from business context, present the complete deliverable, and let the founder react to concrete work — not abstract choices.