菜单
What will competitors do? — Competitive method progress prediction and time window analysis
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Strategy: Dialectic engine retuned for truth-seeking, not survival. A defender steelmans a claim into its MOST falsifiable form, a critic attacks to refute it, a judge classifies the exchange into BROKEN/CORROBORATED/UNFALSIFIABLE — the judge does NOT pick a winner or score persuasiveness. Methods: Irving debate (repurposed), Toulmin argumentation, Mayo severe testing.
Campaign: Logical extreme and boundary testing via reductio ad absurdum and edge-case analysis. Core question: Does this artifact collapse under logical limits and boundary conditions? Methods: Lakatos 1976, Dutilh Novaes 2016, BVA, Flyvbjerg Critical Case, Popper.
Campaign for mapping argument structures — extract claims, link evidence, assess strength, synthesize positions. Produces argument graphs in the wiki vault.
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基于 SOC 职业分类
| name | competitive-scenario |
| description | What will competitors do? — Competitive method progress prediction and time window analysis |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | experiment-execution |
| type | strategy |
| sops | ["scenario-driver-identification","competitive-move-prediction","timeline-projection","scenario-impact-assessment","robustness-scoring","scenario-synthesis"] |
| tactics | ["strategy-robustness-testing"] |
| dependencies | {"sops":["competitive-move-prediction","robustness-scoring","scenario-driver-identification","scenario-impact-assessment","scenario-synthesis","timeline-projection"],"tactics":["strategy-robustness-testing"]} |
Competitive Intelligence Scenario Planning. Predict competitor progress, publication timelines, and methodological breakthroughs that could affect our research positioning. Assess time windows of opportunity and first-mover advantages.
Key principles:
Identify competitive drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification
Predict competitor moves → spawn competitive-move-prediction (×3-5 competitors)
Project timelines → spawn timeline-projection
Assess impact → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (per competitive scenario)
Score robustness → spawn robustness-scoring
Synthesize → spawn scenario-synthesis
| Step | Token Budget | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Driver identification | 8K | Competitor-focused |
| Move prediction | 10K × N | N = 3-5 key competitors |
| Timeline projection | 12K | Multi-horizon |
| Impact assessment | 10K × N | Per competitive scenario |
| Robustness scoring | 8K | Competitive positioning |
| Synthesis | 12K | Strategy recommendations |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Tactic | When to use |
|---|---|
| strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| competitive-move-prediction | Predict competitor progress, publications, and strategic moves |
| robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis |
| scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning |
| scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions |
| scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work |
| timeline-projection | Extrapolate research landscape timelines using trend analysis and milestone projection |