cumulative-tracking

name	cumulative-tracking
description	Track evidence accumulation over time — cumulative meta-analysis protocol design. Budget: 40 studies, 40 effect sizes, 30 web searches.
dependencies	{"tactics":["effect-size-extraction","evidence-synthesis-planning","quality-assessment-protocol"],"sops":["data-extraction-form","effect-size-planning","heterogeneity-source-analysis","inclusion-criteria-design","meta-analysis-synthesis","pico-formulation","publication-bias-assessment","risk-of-bias-assessment","sensitivity-analysis-design"]}

Cumulative Tracking Strategy

Design a cumulative meta-analysis protocol tracking how evidence evolves over time as new studies are published.

Purpose

Cumulative meta-analysis adds studies one-by-one in chronological order, showing when the evidence became conclusive, whether early studies were misleading, and how the pooled estimate stabilized. This strategy produces the protocol for temporal evidence tracking.

Budget

Resource	Floor	Target
Studies identified	28	40
Effect sizes extracted	28	40
Web searches	20	30
Temporal coverage (years)	5	10+
Quality assessments	20	40

Budget gate: cannot exit until 80% of floor met.

State Ledger

<HARD-GATE>
| Metric | Current | Floor | Target | Status |
|--------|---------|-------|--------|--------|
| Studies found | 0 | 28 | 40 | BLOCKED |
| Effect sizes planned | 0 | 28 | 40 | BLOCKED |
| Web searches done | 0 | 20 | 30 | BLOCKED |
| Year range covered | 0 | 5 | 10+ | BLOCKED |
| Quality assessed | 0 | 20 | 40 | BLOCKED |
</HARD-GATE>

Available Tactics

Tactic	When to Use
effect-size-extraction	Extract effect sizes with publication dates
quality-assessment-protocol	Assess quality evolution over time
evidence-synthesis-planning	Plan cumulative pooling approach

Available SOPs

SOP	When to Use
pico-formulation	Frame the temporal evidence question
inclusion-criteria-design	Define eligibility with temporal scope
effect-size-planning	Standardize effect sizes for temporal pooling
data-extraction-form	Template with mandatory date fields
risk-of-bias-assessment	Per-study assessment (track quality trends)
heterogeneity-source-analysis	Time-varying heterogeneity
sensitivity-analysis-design	First-study effect, vintage analysis
publication-bias-assessment	Time-lag bias assessment
meta-analysis-synthesis	Final cumulative protocol assembly

Execution Guidance

1. Frame — Run pico-formulation with temporal dimension explicit
2. Scope — Run inclusion-criteria-design with date range requirements
3. Search — Systematic search emphasizing complete temporal coverage
4. Order — Sort studies chronologically by publication date
5. Extract — Use effect-size-extraction tactic with date metadata
6. Assess — Use quality-assessment-protocol noting temporal trends
7. Plan — Use evidence-synthesis-planning for cumulative model
8. Synthesize — Run meta-analysis-synthesis for final protocol

Ensure no temporal gaps. Flag periods with no publications.

Output Format

protocol:
  question: [PICO with temporal dimension]
  temporal_scope: [start_year - end_year]
  inclusion_criteria: [eligibility with date requirements]
  studies_included:
    - [study, year, effect_size, cumulative_n]
  chronological_order: [sorted study list]
  effect_size_type: [consistent metric across time]
  model: [random-effects with cumulative pooling]
  temporal_analyses:
    - cumulative_forest_plot
    - first_study_effect_test
    - evidence_stabilization_point
    - vintage_regression
  time_lag_bias: [assessment plan]
  quality_trend: [RoB evolution over time]
  reporting: PRISMA-2020 +  

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

Tactic	When to use
effect-size-extraction	Systematically extract effect sizes and conditions from papers for meta-analytic synthesis
evidence-synthesis-planning	Plan the statistical synthesis approach — model selection, heterogeneity strategy, and reporting
quality-assessment-protocol	Methodological quality and bias risk assessment of included studies using validated tools

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
data-extraction-form	Design structured data extraction form for systematic meta-analysis data collection
effect-size-planning	Determine effect size types and calculation methods for meta-analytic synthesis
heterogeneity-source-analysis	Identify and classify sources of between-study heterogeneity (clinical, methodological, statistical)
inclusion-criteria-design	Define inclusion/exclusion criteria for systematic study selection in meta-analysis
meta-analysis-synthesis	Produce final meta-analysis protocol document assembling all planning outputs into PRISMA-compliant protocol
pico-formulation	Construct PICO/PECO framework for the meta-analysis research question
publication-bias-assessment	Plan funnel plots, Egger's test, trim-and-fill, p-curve, and selection model analyses for publication bias
risk-of-bias-assessment	Assess methodological bias using RoB2, PROBAST, or QUADAS-2 validated tools
sensitivity-analysis-design	Design leave-one-out, influence diagnostics, subgroup analyses, and robustness checks