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基于 SOC 职业分类
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| name | hypothesis-formulation |
| description | Campaign: transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses |
| version | 1.0.0 |
| category | hypothesis-formation |
| type | campaign |
| input | Ranked gaps + insights + tensions (from gap-prioritization or an upstream repo) |
| output | Structured hypothesis set + falsifiability criteria + boundary conditions |
| strategies | ["deductive-hypothesis-generation","inductive-hypothesis-generation","abductive-hypothesis-generation","competing-hypothesis-construction","hypothesis-operationalization"] |
| tactics | ["theory-mechanism-extraction","anomaly-driven-abduction","falsifiability-audit","competing-hypothesis-matrix"] |
| dependencies | {"campaigns":["research-question"],"strategies":["abductive-hypothesis-generation","competing-hypothesis-construction","deductive-hypothesis-generation","hypothesis-operationalization","inductive-hypothesis-generation"],"sops":["context-checkpoint","context-init","hypothesis-formation-quality-gate-check","hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection","hypothesis-synthesis"]} |
Transform insights and gaps into structured testable hypotheses — answering "how do we turn an insight into a testable hypothesis?"
Not met → stop, recommend completing gap-prioritization or upstream work first.
Transform a vague "there's a gap here" or "this phenomenon is interesting" into a precise, falsifiable hypothesis with boundary conditions. The output is not a "solution" but a "testable proposition."
| Strategy | When to Use | Reasoning direction |
|---|---|---|
| deductive-hypothesis-generation | The domain has mature theory, and the gap is a deviation between theoretical prediction and reality | Theory → prediction |
| inductive-hypothesis-generation | The domain lacks theory but has abundant empirical observations or data patterns | Data → regularity |
| abductive-hypothesis-generation | An anomalous phenomenon that existing theory cannot explain has been observed | Anomaly → best explanation |
| competing-hypothesis-construction | Need to maintain openness and avoid confirmation bias | Multiple explanations in parallel |
| hypothesis-operationalization | A directional hypothesis exists and needs to be formalized into a testable form | Vague → precise |
CC selects autonomously based on input characteristics (whether there is theoretical support, whether there is anomalous data, hypothesis maturity). Can be combined serially.
| Tier | Hypothesis yield | Theory/mechanism | Falsifiability | Competing hypotheses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | ≥2 structured hypotheses | ≥2 relevant theories | 1 falsification scenario per hypothesis | Optional |
| M | ≥3 structured hypotheses | ≥3 theories + ≥5 mechanisms | ≥1 scenario + boundary conditions per hypothesis | ≥2 competing hypotheses |
| L | ≥5 structured hypotheses |
| ≥5 theories + ≥8 mechanisms |
| Complete falsifiability audit |
| ≥3 competing hypotheses + discriminating predictions |
Each hypothesis must contain:
Each campaign run must produce:
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Strategy | When to use |
|---|---|
| abductive-hypothesis-generation | Strategy: Inference to the best explanation in the face of anomalies |
| competing-hypothesis-construction | Strategy: Construct multiple competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon |
| deductive-hypothesis-generation | Strategy: deduce hypotheses from existing theory |
| hypothesis-operationalization | Strategy: refine a working hypothesis into a precise, testable form |
| inductive-hypothesis-generation | Strategy: induce and distill hypotheses from data/observations |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| SOP | When to use |
|---|---|
| context-checkpoint | Append research process and results to the current Phase's context file. Covers both process and results with genuine substance. Use this skill at plan-designated checkpoint points — typically after each strategy completes or at key decision nodes within a research Phase. |
| context-init | Create a new context file for a research Phase. Called once at Phase start to initialize the file that subsequent context-checkpoint calls will append to. Use this skill whenever a new research Phase begins and a fresh context file is needed. |
| hypothesis-formation-quality-gate-check | Shared SOP: General quality-gate check (format completeness, logical consistency) |
| hypothesis-formation-saturation-detection | Shared SOP: judge whether the current activity has reached information saturation |
| hypothesis-synthesis | SOP: synthesize all intermediate products into a final structured hypothesis set |
Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.
| Campaign | When to use |
|---|---|
| research-question | Campaign: Refine hypotheses into precise, framed research questions |
