菜单
Analyze Fed rate policy using 12-month inflation trends, employment data, yield curve signals, and market stress to forecast the next likely Fed move.
用 Codex 或 Claude 帮你安装 复制这段 Prompt，粘贴到 Codex、Claude 或其他助手里，让它检查 Skill 页面并帮你完成安装。
Produce an end-of-day market recap covering index performance, sector rotation, notable movers, and key headlines to frame the next session.
Run a pre-market scan across indices, sectors, sentiment, and upcoming catalysts to produce a structured morning briefing with directional bias.
Build a comprehensive macroeconomic dashboard covering rates, inflation, labor, yield curve, and market sentiment to identify the current macro regime.
Analyze sector performance across timeframes, detect risk-on vs risk-off rotation, and identify overweight/underweight sector picks with technical confirmation.
Guidance on using stock and crypto market data tools effectively -- when to use which tools, how to interpret results, and how to combine data sources
Run a pre-trade risk assessment scoring volatility, technicals, short interest, earnings proximity, and market regime into a 0-8 risk flag system.
基于 SOC 职业分类
| name | fed-watch |
| description | Analyze Fed rate policy using 12-month inflation trends, employment data, yield curve signals, and market stress to forecast the next likely Fed move. |
Act as a rates strategist. Collect current and historical inflation data, employment indicators, yield curve levels, and market stress signals to assess the Fed's likely policy direction. Focus on what the data tells us about the next move.
Prerequisite: This skill requires FRED_API_KEY to be configured. Without it, only market indices and sentiment data are available.
Announce at start: "Running Fed Watch -- collecting rate history, inflation trends, employment data, and market stress indicators."
| Tool | Parameters | Priority |
|---|---|---|
fred_indicator | series_id=fed_funds | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator_history | series_id=fed_funds, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator_history | series_id=cpi, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today, units=pc1 | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator_history | series_id=core_pce, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today, units=pc1 | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator | series_id=unemployment | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator | series_id=initial_claims | ENRICHMENT |
fred_indicator | series_id=treasury_2y | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator | series_id=treasury_10y | REQUIRED |
fred_indicator | series_id=nonfarm_payrolls (NFP data may be 2-4 weeks old) | ENRICHMENT |
tradingview_market_indices | (default) | REQUIRED |
fred_economic_calendar | limit=10 | ENRICHMENT |
DO NOT proceed to analysis until ALL REQUIRED calls return. ENRICHMENT failures are acceptable.
Cross-reference the collected data across four dimensions:
Determine whether the weight of evidence points to the Fed's next move being a hike, cut, or extended hold.
DO NOT reproduce raw tool output. Synthesize and interpret.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | x.xx% |
| Last Change | +/-xx bps on YYYY-MM-DD |
| 2Y Treasury | x.xx% |
| 10Y Treasury | x.xx% |
| 2Y-10Y Spread | +/-xx bps |
| 2Y vs Fed Funds | +/-xx bps (market pricing signal) |
| Month | CPI (YoY%) | Core PCE (YoY%) |
|---|---|---|
| (show 4-6 data points spanning the 12 months to illustrate the trajectory) |
List releases from the economic calendar that directly influence Fed decisions (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP, FOMC).
Stance: HAWKISH / DOVISH / ON HOLD
Confidence: HIGH / MODERATE / LOW
Provide 3-5 sentences of reasoning. State what conditions would change the outlook. Note any divergence between what the data suggests and what the market is pricing.
Data from TradingView and Yahoo Finance is 15-minute delayed. CBOE and sentiment data is end-of-day. Verify critical levels with real-time data before executing trades.
