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estimation

Name: Estimation
Author: aj-geddes

// Guides the user through risk-based task estimation using decomposition, three-point estimates, and PERT formula. ALWAYS trigger on "estimate", "how long will this take", "time to complete", "sizing", "scope this", "effort estimate", "how many hours", "story points", "project timeline", "when will this be done", "cost estimate", "level of effort". Use when sizing any work item, feature, or project.

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stars:8

forks:6

updated:2026年3月10日 10:15

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SKILL.md

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estimation

description

Guides the user through risk-based task estimation using decomposition, three-point estimates, and PERT formula. ALWAYS trigger on "estimate", "how long will this take", "time to complete", "sizing", "scope this", "effort estimate", "how many hours", "story points", "project timeline", "when will this be done", "cost estimate", "level of effort". Use when sizing any work item, feature, or project.

Estimation

Process

1. Decompose Exhaustively

Break tasks until each piece is < 8 hours and estimatable with confidence.

Task: "Add user authentication"
  ├─ Database schema (2h)
  ├─ API endpoints (16h) → decompose further
  ├─ Password handling (8h)
  ├─ JWT tokens (19h) → decompose further
  ├─ Middleware (14h) → decompose further
  ├─ Testing (23h) → decompose further
  └─ Integration (22h) → decompose further

Rule: If you can't estimate confidently, decompose further.

2. Identify Unknowns

unknowns:
  technical:  ["Never used bcrypt", "Don't know JWT refresh pattern"]
  domain:     ["Password rules unspecified", "SSO needed later?"]
  external:   ["DBA review has 2-day SLA"]
  resource:   ["Frontend dev availability uncertain"]

Every unknown adds risk. Quantify it.

3. Three-Point Estimate

For each atomic task:

Estimate	Meaning
Optimistic (O)	Everything goes perfectly
Realistic (R)	Normal conditions, typical hiccups
Pessimistic (P)	Murphy's Law applies

"Implement password hashing"
O: 1h  (copy existing pattern)
R: 3h  (read docs, test, handle edge cases)
P: 8h  (version issues, need alternatives)

Rule: If P > 3x R, decompose further.

4. Calculate PERT

Expected = (O + 4*R + P) / 6

Example: (1 + 4*3 + 8) / 6 = 3.5h

5. Apply Risk Buffers

Risk Level	Multiplier	When
Low	1.0-1.2x	Well-understood, clear requirements
Medium	1.2-1.5x	Some unknowns, moderate complexity
High	1.5-2.0x	New tech, unclear requirements
Critical	2.0-3.0x	Multiple unknowns, bleeding-edge

Risk categories:

Category	Multiplier	Triggers
Technical	1.3-2.0x	New lang/framework, complex algorithms, perf requirements
Domain	1.4-2.5x	Unclear requirements, regulatory, stakeholder disagreement
External	1.5-3.0x	Third-party deps, vendor timelines, cross-team
Resource	1.2-2.0x	Availability uncertain, skills gap, access issues

6. Add Integration Buffer

Integration is where 50% of bugs live. Always add 20-30%.

Subtasks total: 40h
Integration buffer (25%): 10h
Final: 50h

Anti-Patterns

Anti-Pattern	Problem	Fix
"2 Hours"	"I have no idea"	Use three-point + PERT
Secret Padding	Destroys trust	State explicit buffer: "5h + 5h buffer"
Ignoring Integration	Underestimate 30-50%	Always add integration buffer
Forgetting Testing	"Done" != done	Include test time (often 1:1 with dev)
No Confidence Level	False precision	Use ranges: "45h +/- 5h"

Communication Template

[ESTIMATE] (+/-[UNCERTAINTY]) assuming [ASSUMPTIONS]

Breakdown:
- Component 1: Xh
- Component 2: Yh
- Integration: Zh

Confidence: [High/Medium/Low] (XX%)

Assumptions:
1. [Critical assumption]

Risks:
- [Risk]: [impact] / [mitigation]

Dependencies:
- [External dependency]

Unknowns:
- [Unknown] - [how to resolve]

Validation Checklist

Before finalizing any estimate:

When to Re-Estimate

Requirements change -- re-decompose affected components
Unknown resolved -- update with actual findings
Overrun > 20% -- stop and reassess remaining work
Dependency changes -- adjust timeline
Team changes -- different skills = different estimates

Script

Run the interactive PERT estimation helper:

skills/estimation/scripts/estimate.sh
# or
./scripts/estimate.sh [--output filename]

References

references/decomposition-examples.md -- full worked examples
references/risk-analysis.md -- risk assessment framework
references/communication-guide.md -- stakeholder communication patterns
scripts/estimate.sh -- interactive PERT estimation script

related-skills.json

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package.json

"author": "aj-geddes"

"repository": "aj-geddes/unicorn-team"

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项目管理专家商业与金融运营类职业13-1082L4

estimation

Estimation

Process

1. Decompose Exhaustively

2. Identify Unknowns

3. Three-Point Estimate

4. Calculate PERT

5. Apply Risk Buffers

6. Add Integration Buffer

Anti-Patterns

Communication Template

Validation Checklist

When to Re-Estimate

Script

References

同仓库更多 Skills

同仓库更多 Skills

Estimation

Process

1. Decompose Exhaustively

2. Identify Unknowns

3. Three-Point Estimate

4. Calculate PERT

5. Apply Risk Buffers

6. Add Integration Buffer

Anti-Patterns

Communication Template

Validation Checklist

When to Re-Estimate

Script

References