// Run Monte Carlo simulations for Finance Guru portfolio strategy. USE WHEN user mentions monte carlo OR run simulation OR stress test portfolio OR probability analysis OR income projections OR margin safety analysis. Supports 4-layer portfolio (Growth, Income, Hedge, GOOGL) with auto-detection of current values from Fidelity CSV.
| name | MonteCarlo |
| description | Run Monte Carlo simulations for Finance Guru portfolio strategy. USE WHEN user mentions monte carlo OR run simulation OR stress test portfolio OR probability analysis OR income projections OR margin safety analysis. Supports 4-layer portfolio (Growth, Income, Hedge, GOOGL) with auto-detection of current values from Fidelity CSV. |
Monte Carlo simulation engine for Finance Guru's 4-layer dividend income + margin living strategy. Runs 10,000 market scenarios to project income probabilities, margin safety, and portfolio outcomes over 28 months.
| Workflow | Trigger | File |
|---|---|---|
| RunSimulation | "run monte carlo", "simulate portfolio", "stress test" | workflows/RunSimulation.md |
| IncorporateBuyTicket | "include buy ticket", "add ticket to simulation" | workflows/IncorporateBuyTicket.md |
Example 1: Run standard Monte Carlo simulation
User: "Run the monte carlo simulation with current portfolio"
-> Invokes RunSimulation workflow
-> Auto-detects portfolio values from notebooks/updates/Portfolio_Positions_*.csv
-> Runs 10,000 scenarios with v3.0 4-layer model
-> Outputs JSON summary + full CSV + Excel to fin-guru-private/fin-guru/analysis/
Example 2: Incorporate a buy ticket into simulation
User: "Run monte carlo with my new buy ticket from 12-31"
-> Invokes IncorporateBuyTicket workflow
-> Reads buy ticket from fin-guru-private/fin-guru/tickets/buy-ticket-2025-12-31-*.md
-> Parses YAML frontmatter + Execution Summary table from the canonical ticket format
-> Adjusts starting portfolio values based on ticket allocations
-> Runs simulation with updated positions
Example 3: Stress test margin safety
User: "What's my margin call probability?"
-> Invokes RunSimulation workflow
-> Focuses on margin_call_rate and margin_ratio metrics
-> Reports 5th percentile (worst case) margin ratio
All outputs saved to fin-guru-private/fin-guru/analysis/:
monte-carlo-v3-{date}.json - Summary statisticsmonte-carlo-v3-full-results-{date}.csv - All 10,000 scenariosmonte-carlo-v3-analysis-{date}.xlsx - Excel workbook with chartsSimulation parameters are set in fin-guru-private/strategies/dividend_margin_monte_carlo.py:
v3.0 (Jan 2026) - Full 4-layer portfolio:
Fixes applied:
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