prediction-markets

name	prediction-markets
description	Use when user asks about event probabilities, prediction market odds, what people are betting on, Polymarket or Kalshi prices, sports markets, wallet identity / clustering, or wants to find markets on a specific topic (elections, crypto, sports, macro events). Predexon v2 endpoints (canonical cross-venue markets, sports, wallet identity, keyset pagination) live in production as of 2026-05.
triggers	["polymarket","kalshi","dflow","prediction market","event probability","betting odds","what are people betting on","election odds","crypto market odds","binance futures","yes/no market","implied probability","sports markets","wallet identity","wallet cluster","cross-venue markets","predexon"]

Prediction Markets

Real-time prediction market data via BlockRun (powered by Predexon v2). Covers canonical cross-venue markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun, dFlow, sports, and Binance Futures.

Quick Decision Table

User wants...	Method	Path	Cost
Canonical cross-venue markets	client.pm(path)	"markets"	$0.001
Venue-native flattened listings	client.pm(path)	"markets/listings"	$0.001
Resolve canonical outcome ID	client.pm(path)	"outcomes/{predexon_id}"	$0.001
Search across all venues	client.pm(path, q=...)	"markets/search"	$0.005
Active Polymarket events	client.pm(path)	"polymarket/events"	$0.001
Polymarket events (keyset paginated)	client.pm(path, pagination_key=...)	"polymarket/events/keyset"	$0.001
Polymarket markets (keyset paginated)	client.pm(path, pagination_key=...)	"polymarket/markets/keyset"	$0.001
Specific Kalshi market	client.pm(path)	"kalshi/markets/TICKER"	$0.001
Sports categories	client.pm(path)	"sports/categories"	$0.001
Sports markets (by league/sport)	client.pm(path, league=...)	"sports/markets"	$0.001
Wallet identity (single)	client.pm(path)	"polymarket/wallet/identity/{wallet}"	$0.005
Wallet identity (bulk, up to 200)	client.pm_query(path, body)	"polymarket/wallet/identities"	$0.005
Wallet on-chain cluster	client.pm(path)	"polymarket/wallet/{address}/cluster"	$0.005
dFlow markets	client.pm(path)	"dflow/..."	$0.001-$0.005
Binance Futures	client.pm(path)	"binance/..."	$0.005

Instructions

1. Initialize

import os
from pathlib import Path

chain_file = Path.home() / ".blockrun" / ".chain"
chain = chain_file.read_text().strip() if chain_file.exists() else "base"

if chain == "solana":
    from blockrun_llm import setup_agent_solana_wallet
    client = setup_agent_solana_wallet()
else:
    from blockrun_llm import setup_agent_wallet
    client = setup_agent_wallet()

2. List Active Events

# All active Polymarket events
events = client.pm("polymarket/events")
for event in events.get("data", events if isinstance(events, list) else [])[:10]:
    print(f"{event.get('title', '?')} — {event.get('slug', '')}")

3. Search by Topic

# Search Polymarket for a topic
results = client.pm("polymarket/search", q="bitcoin ETF")
for market in results.get("data", results if isinstance(results, list) else [])[:10]:
    title = market.get("title", "?")
    # Outcome prices are in the market object
    print(f"{title}")
    for outcome in market.get("outcomes", []):
        print(f"  {outcome.get('title', '?')}: {outcome.get('price', '?')}")

4. Specific Kalshi Market

# Get a specific Kalshi market by ticker
market = client.pm("kalshi/markets/KXBTC-25MAR14")
print(f"Market: {market.get('title', market.get('ticker', '?'))}")
yes_price = market.get("yes_bid", market.get("yes_price", "?"))
no_price = market.get("no_bid", market.get("no_price", "?"))
print(f"YES: {yes_price} | NO: {no_price}")

5. Structured Query (POST)

Use for complex filtering — active markets only, sorted by volume, with pagination.

# Polymarket: active markets sorted by volume, limit 20
data = client.pm_query("polymarket/query", {
    "filter": "active",
    "limit": 20,
    "order": "volume",
})

# Kalshi: all markets in a specific series
data = client.pm_query("kalshi/query", {
    "series_ticker": "KXBTC",
    "limit": 50,
})

6. Canonical Cross-Venue Markets (v2)

Predexon v2 unifies markets across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun behind canonical IDs. One call returns the same question regardless of venue.

# All canonical markets (filter by venue, status, category, league, event_id)
markets = client.pm("markets", venue="polymarket", status="active")
for m in markets.get("markets", [])[:10]:
    print(f"{m.get('predexon_id')} — {m.get('title')}")

# Flattened venue-native listings (each row = a tradable listing on one venue)
listings = client.pm("markets/listings", category="elections")

# Resolve a canonical outcome ID across venues
detail = client.pm("outcomes/PXM-12345")
print(detail.get("title"), detail.get("venue_listings"))

7. Sports Markets (v2)

# List sports categories (NBA, NFL, MLB, soccer leagues, …)
categories = client.pm("sports/categories")

# Sports markets grouped by game — filter by league or venue
nba = client.pm("sports/markets", league="NBA", status="open")
for game in nba.get("markets", [])[:10]:
    print(f"{game.get('title')} @ {game.get('start_time')}")
    for venue in game.get("venue_listings", []):
        print(f"  {venue.get('venue')}: {venue.get('price')}")

8. Keyset Pagination (v2)

For large Polymarket result sets, prefer keyset pagination over offset. It is stable across writes and faster on big tables.

# First page
page = client.pm("polymarket/markets/keyset", limit="100")
markets = page.get("markets", [])
next_key = page.get("pagination", {}).get("next_key")

# Subsequent pages
while next_key:
    page = client.pm("polymarket/markets/keyset", limit="100", pagination_key=next_key)
    markets.extend(page.get("markets", []))
    next_key = page.get("pagination", {}).get("next_key")

9. Wallet Identity & On-Chain Clustering (v2, Tier 2)

Cross-context wallet labels (ENS, Twitter, Discord, portfolio metrics) plus on-chain relationship graph data — exposed as three endpoints. All Tier 2 ($0.005/call).

# Single wallet identity
ident = client.pm("polymarket/wallet/identity/0xabc...")
print(ident.get("ens_name"), ident.get("twitter"), ident.get("portfolio_value"))

# Bulk identity lookup (POST, up to 200 wallets per call)
batch = client.pm_query("polymarket/wallet/identities", {
    "addresses": ["0xabc...", "0xdef...", "0x123..."],
})
for row in batch.get("results", []):
    print(row.get("wallet"), row.get("label"))

# Cluster — discover wallets connected via on-chain transfers + identity proofs
cluster = client.pm("polymarket/wallet/0xabc.../cluster")
for related in cluster.get("cluster", []):
    print(related.get("wallet"), related.get("relationship_type"), related.get("confidence_score"))

Common Workflows

"What are people betting on in crypto right now?"

events = client.pm("polymarket/search", q="crypto bitcoin ethereum")
for e in events.get("data", [])[:5]:
    print(e.get("title", "?"))
    for o in e.get("outcomes", []):
        print(f"  {o.get('title')}: {o.get('price')} (implies {round(float(o.get('price', 0))*100)}%)")

"Track a smart wallet's identity + cluster"

seed = "0xabc..."
ident = client.pm(f"polymarket/wallet/identity/{seed}")
cluster = client.pm(f"polymarket/wallet/{seed}/cluster")
print(f"{ident.get('label')} (ENS {ident.get('ens_name')})")
print(f"  Cluster size: {len(cluster.get('cluster', []))} wallets")

"What's the probability of X event?"

# 1. Search for the event
results = client.pm("polymarket/search", q="US election 2026")

# 2. Get specific market details
if results.get("data"):
    market_id = results["data"][0].get("id", results["data"][0].get("slug"))
    detail = client.pm(f"polymarket/events/{market_id}")
    print(detail)

"Show me all active Kalshi markets"

data = client.pm_query("kalshi/query", {"limit": 50, "status": "open"})
markets = data.get("markets", data.get("data", []))
for m in markets[:10]:
    print(f"{m.get('ticker')} — {m.get('title')}: YES={m.get('yes_bid')} NO={m.get('no_bid')}")

Data Case Study: Sentiment Signal from Markets

Prediction markets are often better probability estimates than polls or pundit takes. Pattern:

import json

# 1. Find relevant markets
crypto_markets = client.pm("polymarket/search", q="bitcoin price end of year")

# 2. Extract implied probabilities
for market in crypto_markets.get("data", [])[:3]:
    print(f"\n{market.get('title', '?')}")
    for outcome in market.get("outcomes", []):
        p = float(outcome.get("price", 0)) * 100
        print(f"  {outcome.get('title')}: {p:.0f}% implied probability")

# 3. Save for later analysis
with open(os.path.expanduser("~/.blockrun/data/markets_snapshot.json"), "w") as f:
    json.dump(crypto_markets, f, indent=2, default=str)

Notes on Response Shape

Predexon returns raw API responses. Structure varies by exchange:

• Polymarket: usually { "data": [...] } or { "events": [...] }
• Kalshi: usually { "markets": [...] } with ticker, yes_bid, no_bid fields
• Print raw response first when exploring a new path: print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)[:1000])

Requirements

• BlockRun SDK: pip install blockrun-llm
• USDC wallet funded (client.get_balance())
• Kalshi tickers: format is KXBTC-25MAR14 (series + expiry date)