菜单
Assumes a project has already failed, works backward to identify the top causes, scores them by likelihood and impact, and outputs a mitigation plan. Use when starting a new project, before a major launch, evaluating risky decisions, or when the user says "pre-mortem", "what could go wrong", "risk analysis", "failure modes", "red team this plan".
Strategy & Decision Intelligence — 8 skills for personal productivity, strategic thinking, and decision-making. Pre-mortem risk analysis, braindump capture to Obsidian vault, morning briefings, priority drift detection, strategy red-teaming, multi-audience stakeholder updates, structured decision logging, and weekly reviews. All skills integrate with the Obsidian vault and knowledge-graph-memory for persistent context. Use when: (1) planning or evaluating a project, (2) capturing thoughts or decisions, (3) generating briefings or reviews, (4) checking strategic alignment, (5) user says "pre-mortem", "braindump", "morning briefing", "drift check", "strategy critique", "stakeholder update", "decision log", "weekly review".
Run a premortem on any plan, launch, product, hire, strategy, or decision. Assumes it already failed 6 months from now and works backward to find every reason why. Produces a revised plan with blind spots exposed. MANDATORY TRIGGERS: 'premortem this', 'premortem my', 'run a premortem', 'what could kill this', 'future-proof this', 'stress test this plan', 'what am i missing here', 'find the blind spots'. STRONG TRIGGERS: 'what could go wrong', 'am i missing anything', 'poke holes in this', 'where will this break', 'devil's advocate this'. Do NOT trigger on simple feedback requests, factual questions, or LLM Council requests. DO trigger when someone has a plan or commitment where the cost of being wrong is high.
Takes raw unstructured thoughts, voice transcript dumps, or stream-of-consciousness text and auto-files them into the right Obsidian vault folders with tags, backlinks, and proper frontmatter. Use when the user says "braindump", "brain dump", "capture this", "dump my thoughts", "I'm thinking about...", or provides a long unstructured block of text to organize.
Captures a decision with context, alternatives considered, and rationale, then links it to the relevant project doc in the vault. Creates a searchable decision record. Use when the user says "decision log", "log this decision", "record this choice", "document why we chose", "decision record", "ADR", or has just made an important decision.
Compares stated priorities against where time and effort actually went, and produces a strategy drift report. Uses git log, vault priorities, and project docs to detect misalignment. Use when the user says "drift check", "am I on track", "priority alignment", "where did my time go", "strategy drift", or wants to audit focus vs intention.
Reads open action items, this week's priorities, and recent vault updates, then produces a focused "start your day" brief. Use when the user says "morning briefing", "daily brief", "what's on my plate", "start my day", "what should I focus on today", or at the start of a work session.
| name | pre-mortem |
| description | Assumes a project has already failed, works backward to identify the top causes, scores them by likelihood and impact, and outputs a mitigation plan. Use when starting a new project, before a major launch, evaluating risky decisions, or when the user says "pre-mortem", "what could go wrong", "risk analysis", "failure modes", "red team this plan". |
Assume the project has already failed. Work backward to find out why.
Gather context — Read the project description, plan, or doc the user provides. If a vault path is given, read it. If the user describes the project verbally, capture the key facts.
Generate failure scenarios — Imagine it is 6 months from now and the project has failed catastrophically. Generate 8-12 distinct failure causes across these categories:
Score each cause — For each failure cause, assign:
Rank and filter — Sort by risk score descending. Present the top 5-8.
Mitigation plan — For each top risk, provide:
## Pre-Mortem: [Project Name]
**Scenario**: It is [date + 6 months]. The project has failed.
### Top Risks
| # | Cause | Category | Likelihood | Impact | Risk | Early Warning |
|---|-------|----------|-----------|--------|------|---------------|
| 1 | ... | Technical | 4 | 5 | 20 | ... |
### Mitigation Plan
#### Risk 1: [Cause]
- **Signal**: ...
- **Action**: ...
- **Owner**: ...
- **By**: ...
If the user has an Obsidian vault, save the output to:
vault/decisions/pre-mortem-[project]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md
Add frontmatter:
---
type: pre-mortem
project: [name]
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
top_risk_score: [highest score]
tags: [pre-mortem, risk, project-name]
---