economic-policy-analysis

name	economic-policy-analysis
description	Fiscal policy, budget analysis, economic forecasting, monetary policy, trade policy for political journalists
license	Apache-2.0

💰 Economic Policy Analysis Skill

🔴 AI FIRST Quality Principle

Apply the AI FIRST principle: never accept first-pass quality. Minimum 2 iterations. Read all output, improve every section. No shortcuts.

Purpose

Provides expertise in analyzing economic policy for political journalists. Covers fiscal policy, budget analysis, economic forecasting, monetary policy, and trade policy to enable sophisticated economic reporting for riksdagsmonitor's political transparency mission.

Core Principles

1. Data-Driven - Base analysis on official statistics and credible forecasts
2. Policy Focus - Link economic data to political decisions and impacts
3. Accessible - Explain complex economics clearly for general audience
4. Distributional - Analyze who wins and loses from policy choices
5. International Context - Compare Swedish policy to global trends

This Skill Enforces

• Fiscal policy analysis - Budget, taxation, spending priorities
• Monetary policy understanding - Central bank actions, interest rates
• Economic forecasting - Growth, inflation, employment projections
• Trade policy - Exports, imports, trade agreements, tariffs
• Distributional analysis - Income, wealth, inequality impacts
• Political economy - How politics shapes economic policy choices

Key Economic Indicators

Macro Indicators

• GDP Growth - Quarterly and annual real growth rates
• Inflation - CPI, CPIF (excluding interest), core inflation
• Unemployment - Total, youth, long-term rates
• Employment - Participation rate, job creation
• Productivity - Output per hour worked, trends
• Trade Balance - Exports minus imports

Fiscal Indicators

• Budget Balance - Deficit or surplus as % of GDP
• Public Debt - Gross debt as % of GDP
• Tax Burden - Total tax revenue as % of GDP
• Spending Composition - By function (healthcare, education, defense)
• Fiscal Stance - Expansionary, contractionary, neutral
• Fiscal Rules - Surplus target, expenditure ceiling, debt anchor

Monetary Indicators

• Policy Rate - Riksbank repo rate
• Inflation Target - 2% CPIF inflation
• Exchange Rate - SEK vs EUR, USD
• Money Supply - M1, M2, M3 aggregates
• Credit Growth - Household and corporate lending

Financial Indicators

• Stock Market - OMXS30 index
• Bond Yields - 10-year government bond
• Credit Spreads - Corporate vs government bonds
• Housing Prices - National and regional trends
• Household Debt - As % of disposable income

When to Use This Skill

Budget Coverage

• Spring and Fall budget proposals
• Budget negotiations and amendments
• Long-term fiscal sustainability analysis
• Distributional impact of budget measures

Economic Forecasts

• Riksbank monetary policy reports (4 per year)
• National Institute of Economic Research forecasts (quarterly)
• Finance Ministry forecasts (budget documents)
• International forecasts (IMF, OECD, EU Commission)

Policy Analysis

• Tax reform proposals and impacts
• Spending priorities and tradeoffs
• Welfare state sustainability
• Economic crisis response measures

International Context

• EU fiscal rules compliance
• Trade agreement negotiations
• Economic sanctions impacts
• Global economic trends affecting Sweden

Examples

Budget Analysis

**Spring Budget: Healthcare Boost, But at What Cost?**

Government's spring budget amendment proposes 8.5 billion SEK healthcare 
increase, but financing strategy raises fiscal sustainability concerns.

**The Numbers**:
- Healthcare spending: +8.5B SEK (2026-2027)
- Tax revenue revision: +12B SEK (stronger growth forecast)
- Spending reallocation: +2B SEK (from infrastructure)
- Net fiscal impact: +6B SEK looser stance

**Economic Context**:
- GDP growth forecast: 1.8% (2026), up from 0.8% (previous)
- Unemployment: 7.2%, stable
- Inflation: 2.3%, above Riksbank target
- Output gap: Still slightly negative (−0.3%)

**Fiscal Rules Compliance**:
- Surplus target (1% over cycle): On track (current: 0.5%)
- Expenditure ceiling: Headroom of 9B SEK remains
- Debt anchor (35% GDP): Current 32%, comfortable margin

**Expert Assessment**:
**Riksbank (unofficial view)**: Concerns about pro-cyclical stimulus. 
Economy recovering, fiscal expansion may overheat. Could complicate 
monetary policy (keep rates higher longer).

**National Institute of Economic Research**: Revenue forecast optimistic. 
Risk of over-estimation. If growth disappoints, creates 5B SEK hole.

**OECD Sweden Review**: Healthcare spending needed, but prefer 
structural reforms over pure spending increase. Efficiency gains possible.

**Distributional Analysis**:
**Winners**: Healthcare workers (wage increases), elderly (reduced wait times)
**Losers**: Infrastructure projects delayed, future taxpayers (if deficit)
**Neutral**: Middle-income taxpayers (no tax changes)

**International Comparison**:
- **Denmark**: 10.5% GDP on healthcare (vs Sweden 10.2%)
- **Norway**: 10.8% GDP (oil wealth allows higher)
- **Finland**: 9.5% GDP (tighter fiscal constraints)
- **Germany**: 11.7% GDP (insurance-based system)

**Verdict**: Politically popular, economically questionable timing. Better 
to pair with efficiency reforms. Risk of overheating economy if growth 
forecast proves optimistic.

*Sources: Government bill 2025/26:100, Riksbank Monetary Policy Report 
January 2026, NIER Conjunctural Report February 2026, OECD Economic 
Survey of Sweden 2025, expert interviews (4 economists)*

Monetary Policy Coverage

**Riksbank Holds Rates, But Signals June Cut**

Sweden's central bank held its policy rate at 2.75% today, but dovish 
language suggests first cut in June as inflation pressure eases.

**The Decision**:
- Repo rate: 2.75% (unchanged, as expected)
- Vote: 5-1 (one dissent for immediate 0.25% cut)
- Forward guidance: "Rate cuts likely starting mid-2026"

**Economic Assessment**:
- Inflation: 2.3% (down from 2.8% in December)
- Core inflation: 2.1% (near target)
- Wage growth: 3.2% (moderating from 4.1%)
- GDP growth: 1.5% forecast (Q4 2025: +0.4%)

**Governor Statement** (Excerpts):
"Inflation approaching target sustainably. Labor market cooling without 
crisis. Conditions for easier policy emerging. But premature to cut now. 
Want confidence inflation stays near 2%."

**Market Reaction**:
- 10-year bond yield: −5 basis points (expectations for cuts)
- SEK: −0.3% vs EUR (weaker on dovish tone)
- OMXS30 stock index: +1.2% (lower rates positive)

**Expert Analysis**:
**SEB Economics**: "Clear signal: June cut almost certain. September 
second cut. Terminal rate 1.5% by end-2026."

**Nordea**: "More cautious. Wage growth still elevated. Risk Riksbank 
waits until September. Total cuts: 75 bp (three cuts) in 2026."

**International Context**:
- **ECB**: Held rates at 3.0%, also signaling June cut
- **Fed**: On hold at 4.5%, divergence with Europe widening
- **Bank of England**: Cut to 4.25% last month

**Political Implications**:
Lower rates help government's re-election prospects:
- Housing market stabilizes (mortgage costs down)
- Consumer spending increases
- Business investment improves
- Opposition attacks on "economic mismanagement" weaken

**Dissent Analysis**:
First Bank Deputy Governor Henry Ohlsson dissented, preferring immediate 
cut. Argues inflation target achieved, unemployment too high (7.2%). 
Riksbank risks "behind the curve" like 2022.

*Sources: Riksbank press conference, Monetary Policy Report February 2026, 
market data (Nasdaq OMX), expert interviews (5 economists), historical 
data from Riksbank*

Remember

• Data first - Start with official statistics (SCB, Riksbank, Finance Ministry)
• Multiple forecasts - Don't rely on single source; compare Riksbank, NIER, OECD
• Distributional impacts - Who wins and loses matters for political journalism
• International context - Swedish economy deeply integrated globally
• Fiscal rules - Understand surplus target, expenditure ceiling, debt anchor
• Political economy - Economic policy choices reflect political priorities
• Accessible language - Explain complex economics clearly
• Uncertainty - Economic forecasts are uncertain; acknowledge this
• Long-term view - Consider sustainability, not just short-term impacts
• Expert diversity - Include range of economic perspectives

🔑 Authoritative data sources (Riksdagsmonitor — 2026-04-24)

IMF is PRIMARY for all economic context. World Bank is retained only for non-economic residue. Follow the provider decision matrix in analysis/imf/README.md § 2 and the full methodology in analysis/methodologies/imf-indicator-mapping.md v2.0.

Claim class	Provider	Access
Real GDP, inflation, unemployment, fiscal balance, debt/GDP, current account, exports/imports growth	IMF WEO	tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts weo … / compare … (CLI via bash, no MCP)
Primary balance, cyclically-adjusted balance, DSA	IMF Fiscal Monitor	same CLI
Monthly CPI, high-frequency rates, money-market rate (IMF proxy for Riksbank policy rate)	IMF CPI / MFS_IR	tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx --path "/data/IMF.STA,CPI,5.0.0/SWE.CPI._T.IX.M?startPeriod=2024-01"
Bilateral trade flows	IMF IMTS (replaces legacy DOTS)	tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx --path "/data/IMF.STA,IMTS,1.0.0/SWE.XG_FOB_USD.{COUNTERPART_ISO3}.A?startPeriod=2023"
Commodity benchmarks (oil, metals)	IMF PCPS	same
Exchange rates (SEK/USD, SEK/EUR, REER)	IMF ER	same
COFOG spending by function (defence, health, education, social protection)	IMF GFS_COFOG	same
Swedish-specific KPIF, AKU labour, regional, budget execution	SCB (pxweb-mcp)	query_table
Governance (WGI, source=75) — rule of law, control of corruption, voice & accountability	World Bank (worldbank-mcp)	get-economic-data with CC.EST, RL.EST, VA.EST, GE.EST, RQ.EST, PV.EST
Environment — CO₂, renewables, forest cover	World Bank	EN.ATM.CO2E.PC, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS, AG.LND.FRST.ZS
Defence historicals (> 15 year trends)	World Bank	MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
Education participation	World Bank	SE.PRM.ENRR, SE.TER.ENRR
Crime / homicide	World Bank	VC.IHR.PSRC.P5

⚠️ Deprecated (do NOT use as primary) — worldbank:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, worldbank:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG, worldbank:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS, worldbank:GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS, worldbank:GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS, worldbank:GC.REV.XGRT.GD.ZS, worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS, worldbank:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS, worldbank:NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, worldbank:NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Replace with their IMF counterpart — full mapping in analysis/imf/indicators-inventory.json → deprecationPolicy.

Vintage discipline (mandatory for projections)

Every WEO / FM projection quote MUST include a vintage tag: (WEO Apr-2026, GGXWDG_NGDP). Current vintage: WEO-2026-04. Stale-vintage citations (> 6 months old) trigger a warning annotation in methodology-reflection.md — see Economic Data Contract § Vintage staleness rule.

Canonical recipes

# Single-country WEO (15-year series with projections)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts weo --country SWE --indicator NGDP_RPCH --years 15 --persist

# Nordic peer-compare (1 batched call, not 5)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts compare --indicator GGXWDG_NGDP \
  --countries SWE,DNK,NOR,FIN,DEU --persist

# Monthly CPI level (post-2026-05 SDMX 3.0 path; CPI dataflow replaces the
# legacy IFS:PCPI_IX series — request SWE.CPI._T.IX.M against IMF.STA/CPI v5.0.0)
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx \
  --path "/data/IMF.STA,CPI,5.0.0/SWE.CPI._T.IX.M?startPeriod=2022-01" \
  --indicator _T.IX --country SWE --persist

# COFOG health spending (SoU committee) — post-2026-05 GFS_COFOG v11.0.0
# uses GF07_T (renamed from G07) and the canonical SECTOR=S13, GFS_GRP=G2MF,
# TYPE_OF_TRANSFORMATION=POGDP_PT (% of GDP) shape
tsx scripts/imf-fetch.ts sdmx \
  --path "/data/IMF.STA,GFS_COFOG,11.0.0/SWE.S13.G2MF.GF07_T.POGDP_PT.A?startPeriod=2015" \
  --indicator GF07_T --country SWE --persist

Rate-limit discipline: IMF advertises ~10 req / 5 s; prefer compare over parallel weo; sleep 1 between invocations; target ≤ 10 IMF calls per article. Full playbook: analysis/imf/agentic-integration.md.

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References

• Statistics Sweden (SCB)
• Riksbank (Swedish Central Bank)
• Finance Ministry Economic Forecasts
• National Institute of Economic Research (NIER/Konjunkturinstitutet)
• OECD Economic Surveys: Sweden
• IMF World Economic Outlook
• European Commission Economic Forecasts

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Use this skill when: Analyzing budgets and fiscal policy, covering monetary policy decisions, reporting on economic forecasts, assessing trade policy, or explaining economic impacts of political decisions for general audience.