Track rising, peaking, and fading crypto/tech narratives with quantitative mindshare + velocity signals and explicit positioning calls
schedule
0 14 * * *
commits
true
tags
["crypto","research"]
requires
["XAI_API_KEY"]
permissions
["contents:write"]
Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on prior narrative observations.
Read the last 3 days of memory/logs/ — specifically any prior ### narrative-tracker entries — to (a) avoid re-reporting the same narratives without new info, and (b) detect phase transitions vs the last run.
Goal
Produce a decision-grade narrative map: every narrative gets a mindshare score, a velocity arrow, a sentiment tag, named drivers, and an explicit position call. Classification without a position call is noise.
Steps
1. Ingest signals
a. X/Twitter narratives — X.AI API (primary). The primary signal is a direct curl to the X.AI Responses API with Grok's x_search tool — see ## Fetching below for the full contract. XAI_API_KEY is injected into this skill's environment via requires:; it is present and valid, so this path is required whenever the key check prints KEY_PRESENT. Set the Bash tool timeout to ≥180000 when running the curl (x_search takes 30-120s) and capture the HTTP status:
FROM_DATE=$(date -u -d "3 days ago" +%Y-%m-%d 2>/dev/null || date -u -v-3d +%Y-%m-%d)
TO_DATE=$(date -u +%Y-%m-%d)
# Presence check uses the ${VAR:+x} modified expansion, NOT a bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare# form trips the Bash secret-expansion analyzer; the :+ form does not (it never puts the value on the line).
[ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET
# Build the JSON payload to a file with jq (do NOT hand-assemble it), then POST the file.# TWO SEPARATE commands on purpose: the jq (which interpolates $PROMPT/$FROM_DATE/$TO_DATE)# is kept OUT of the ./secretcurl command — never pipe jq into secretcurl, and never put a# $VAR in the secretcurl line, or the Bash permission analyzer blocks the network call.# The `>` redirect to /tmp is fine in read-only mode (it is not a repo path; nothing reverts it).
PROMPT="Search X for the dominant crypto and tech narratives from ${FROM_DATE} to . Return 12-15 distinct narrative threads. For each: 1) short label, 2) 3-5 representative @handles driving it, 3) 2-3 tweet permalinks, 4) rough mention-volume descriptor (niche / growing / saturating / cooling), 5) the strongest one-line bear case against it."
jq -n --arg p --arg fd --arg td \
\
> /tmp/xai-nt-payload.json
HTTP=$(./secretcurl -s -o /tmp/xai-nt.json -w --max-time 150 -X POST \
-H \
-H \
-d @/tmp/xai-nt-payload.json)
Run that block verbatim (do not hand-reassemble the JSON — the jq -n builder exists precisely so quoting/expansion can't break; keep the jq and the ./secretcurl as two separate commands). The echo "xai http=$HTTP ..." line must appear in your output — it is your proof the call ran. On HTTP=200 with a non-empty body, parse /tmp/xai-nt.json with jq -r '.output[] | select(.type == "message") | .content[] | select(.type == "output_text") | .text' and use that as the primary narrative signal (SOURCE=api).
b. WebSearch / WebFetch fallback (last-resort only). You may reach for this only after you have shown an xai http=<code> line proving Path A actually ran and returned a non-2xx code (or an empty body, or timed out). If you have no xai http= line, you did not run the call — go back and run it. Reach for the fallback only when Path A genuinely fails — KEY_UNSET, a non-2xx HTTP code, an empty parse, or a timeout. It is lower quality (WebSearch favours old high-engagement posts) and is never co-equal with Path A. Log the fetch failure to memory/logs/${today}.md recording the true reason — key-unset | http-<code> | empty | timeout — never "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set (a slow curl is a timeout, not a missing key). Then compile narratives via WebSearch (crypto narrative ${TO_DATE}, AI agent crypto trend this week) and WebFetch on individual tweet URLs; discard anything older than the 3-day window.
c. Quantitative reference points (supplement). Independently of the fetch path, cross-check mindshare against external quantitative benchmarks with one WebSearch: DefiLlama narrative tracker OR Kaito mindshare leaderboard. Pull 1-2 concrete numbers (project name, metric, link) to calibrate the mindshare scores in step 2. This is a calibration cross-check, not a narrative source. Do not paraphrase — extract facts.
d. Memory diff. Extract narrative labels mentioned in the last 3 days of ### narrative-tracker log entries. You'll compare against them in step 4.
2. Score each narrative
For each distinct narrative (merge near-duplicates aggressively — "AI agents" and "agentic crypto" are the same), assign:
Field
Scale
How to decide
Mindshare
1-5
1 = fringe, 3 = known in the sector, 5 = dominating timelines. Base on count of distinct drivers + whether you had to dig or it surfaced unprompted.
Velocity
↑↑ / ↑ / → / ↓ / ↓↓
Compared to the 3-day window or prior log entries. ↑↑ = tripled in attention, ↓↓ = was loud 3 days ago, now absent.
Phase
Emerging / Rising / Peak / Fading
Use the velocity + mindshare combo. Emerging = low mindshare, high velocity. Peak = high mindshare, flat/down velocity. Fading = high mindshare last week, now ↓.
Sentiment
Bull / Mixed / Bear / Cope
Cope = bag-holder energy, bear narratives dressed as bull takes.
Drivers
2-3 named
Accounts, projects, or funds amplifying it. Include @handles.
Bear case
1 line
The sharpest argument against. If the consensus is obviously right, say so and mark "no contrarian edge".
Position
FRONT-RUN / RIDE / FADE / WATCH / IGNORE
FRONT-RUN = emerging + contrarian edge. RIDE = rising, not yet peaked. FADE = peak with weak fundamentals or reflexivity flip. WATCH = unclear. IGNORE = mindshare 1-2 with no catalyst.
Drop any narrative that ends up IGNORE unless it's structurally important — noise reduction is the goal.
3. Detect transitions
Compare today's narratives to the last 3 days of logs:
NEW — narrative wasn't in prior logs at all
PROMOTED — phase moved up (e.g. Emerging → Rising)
DEMOTED — phase moved down
DEAD — was in prior logs, now absent from all signals
Transitions are the highest-value output — the point of a daily tracker is to catch inflection points, not re-report the zeitgeist.
4. Flag reflexivity
For each narrative, flag if the story itself is moving outcomes:
Token prices moving on narrative alone (no fundamentals shift)
Projects rebranding/pivoting to ride the narrative
VCs publicly endorsing to manufacture legitimacy
Prediction markets or on-chain flows reflecting narrative belief
Only flag explicit cases with a concrete example. "Reflexivity" without evidence is hand-waving.
5. Format the notification
Keep under 4000 chars. Lead with transitions and reflexivity — those are the decisions. Classification goes below.
If absolutely nothing new or notable (no transitions, no reflexivity, no FRONT-RUN/FADE calls): send a one-line update instead of the full template — *Narrative Tracker — ${today}*: no phase transitions, map unchanged from <last_date>.
6. Send via ./notify
7. Log to memory/logs/${today}.md
Append a ### narrative-tracker section with the full structured output (not just the notification — include all narratives considered, even IGNOREd ones, so future diffs work). If a full run produced nothing actionable, log NARRATIVE_TRACKER_OK with the narrative labels seen (so tomorrow's diff still has a baseline).
Guidelines
Quantitative over vibes. Every narrative gets mindshare 1-5 and a velocity arrow — no exceptions. If you can't score it, drop it.
Transitions > classification. A daily tracker's value is catching moves, not listing the weather.
Named drivers only. "Crypto Twitter is excited about X" is not a driver. "@handle + @handle + @fund" is.
Position calls are mandatory for Emerging/Rising/Peak narratives. If signals are genuinely ambiguous or contradictory, WATCH is an acceptable call — but never omit a position entirely and never invent conviction you don't have.
Ruthless dedup. Same narrative under two labels = one narrative. Merge, don't split.
Call out cope. Manufactured narratives, coordinated shilling, and dead-cat bounces get tagged explicitly.
Prioritize topics tracked in MEMORY.md over generic market chatter.
Fetching
XAI_API_KEY is injected into this skill's environment (declared in requires:). It is present and valid. The primary fetch path is a direct curl to https://api.x.ai/v1/responses with Authorization: Bearer {XAI_API_KEY} (model grok-4.3, "tools":[{"type":"x_search"}]). There is no network sandbox blocking this — earlier versions of this skill claimed there was, and that is stale and false. Just make the call.
Rules:
Check, don't assume. Run [ -n "${XAI_API_KEY:+x}" ] && echo KEY_PRESENT || echo KEY_UNSET (the ${VAR:+x} form, not bare $XAI_API_KEY — the bare form trips the secret-expansion analyzer and falsely reads as unset). If KEY_PRESENT (it will be), Path A (the curl in step 1a) is required before any fallback.
Allow enough time. The x_search call typically takes 30-120s. When you invoke the Bash tool for the curl, set the tool's timeout to at least 180000 (180s) and keep --max-time 150 on the curl so it fails cleanly rather than hanging. A slow curl is not a missing key — never treat a timeout as key-unavailable.
Capture the HTTP status so the fallback decision is fact-based (see the skeleton in step 1a). HTTP=200 with a non-empty parsed body → use it.
Fall back only on a real failure, recording the true reason — key-unset (only if the check printed KEY_UNSET), http-<code> (non-2xx), empty (200 but nothing parsed), or timeout. Never write "XAI_API_KEY unavailable" when the key was set.
WebSearch / WebFetch are last-resort fallbacks only — lower quality, never primary or co-equal. Do not reach for them while the key works.
Environment Variables Required
XAI_API_KEY — X.AI API key for Grok's x_search tool. Declared in requires:, so it is injected into this skill's environment and is the primary fetch path for the narrative signal (step 1a). If it is ever unset, the skill degrades to WebSearch/WebFetch at lower quality.
Notification channels configured via repo secrets (see CLAUDE.md).
