token-pick

<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via signal scoring, edge calculation, conviction tiers, and a skip-day branch --> > **${var}** — Focus area or thesis (e.g. "AI tokens", "election markets", "contrarian bets"). If empty, scans broadly. Read `memory/MEMORY.md` for context. Read the last 7 days of `memory/logs/` and grep for prior `Token Pick` entries — extract the symbols and market questions already picked. **Hard dedup gate**: do not re-pick the same token or the same prediction market unless there is a materially new catalyst that you can name in one sentence. ## Goal Produce ONE token call and ONE prediction-market call per day, each with a numeric signal/edge score and a conviction tier. If neither qualifies for at least MEDIUM conviction, send a short "no picks today" message rather than forcing a weak pick. ## Steps ### 1. Fetch token data ```bash # Trending coins curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search/trending" \ ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"} # Top 250 by market cap with 24h and 7d changes curl -s "https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=250&page=1&sparkline=false&price_change_percentage=24h,7d" \ ${COINGECKO_API_KEY:+-H "x-cg-demo-api-key: $COINGECKO_API_KEY"} # BTC + ETH 24h/7d for relative-strength benchmark (extract from the markets call above; no extra request needed) # DEX-side cross-confirmation (no auth, optional but preferred) curl -s "https://api.dexscreener.com/latest/dex/search?q=trending" ``` If any curl returns empty or errors, retry once with **WebFetch** for the same URL. Track per-source status (`cg=ok|fail`, `dex=ok|fail`) — surfaced in the output footer. ### 2. Fetch prediction markets ```bash # Top events by 24h volume (events group multi-outcome questions) curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?active=true&closed=false&order=volume_24hr&ascending=false&limit=30" # Newer markets gaining traction curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=startDate&ascending=false&limit=20" ``` WebFetch fallback on failure. Track `poly=ok|fail`. ### 3. Score every candidate token (0–10 scale) For each token in the top 250 (and the trending list), compute a signal score: | Signal | Points | |---|---| | 24h price change > 0 | +1 | | 7d price change > 0 | +1 | | Both 24h and 7d > +5% | +2 (in addition to above) | | Appears on CoinGecko trending list | +2 | | Volume/MarketCap ratio ≥ 0.10 | +2 | | Volume/MarketCap ratio ≥ 0.20 (replaces above) | +3 | | Outperforming BOTH BTC and ETH on the 7d | +2 | | Confirmed on DexScreener trending/gainers (cross-source) | +1 | | Matches `${var}` thesis when set | +1 | Drop candidates with market cap < $20M (too pumpable) unless `${var}` explicitly targets micro-caps. Drop any token already picked in the last 7 days (per dedup gate) unless you can name a fresh catalyst. Pick the highest-scoring token. Use **WebSearch** to surface the most likely catalyst and at least one named risk (regulatory, unlock, narrative-faded, exchange listing, etc.). ### 4. Score prediction markets — edge calculation For the top ~10 markets by 24h volume that pass the dedup gate (and `${var}` filter when set), do this for each: 1. Read the question and current YES price (`price`/`outcomePrices`). 2. Use **WebSearch** to gather 1–3 recent data points relevant to the resolution. 3. Estimate a **fair YES probability** as a single number (your best calibrated guess, not a range). State the 1–3 inputs you used. 4. Compute `edge = |fair − current_price|` as percentage points. 5. Liquidity gate: require 24h volume ≥ $50k AND market not resolving in < 24h (no last-minute mean-reversion roulette). Pick the market with the largest edge that clears the gate. If you cannot defend a fair-value estimate within ±10% (insufficient public info), discard and try the next market. ### 5. Conviction tiers | Tier | Token criterion | Market criterion | |---|---|---| | HIGH | signal score ≥ 7 | edge ≥ 10pp | | MEDIUM | signal score 4–6 | edge 5–10pp | | SKIP | signal score < 4 | edge < 5pp | **Skip-day branch**: if BOTH the chosen token and the chosen market land in SKIP, do not synthesize a pick. Send the skip message (step 6b) and log accordingly. This is a feature — forcing low-conviction picks degrades the signal of the whole feed. ### 6a. Notification — normal day (under 4000 chars) Send via `./notify`: ``` *Daily Pick — ${today}* *Token: SYMBOL* [HIGH | MEDIUM] signal X/10 Price: $X.XX (±X.X% 24h / ±X.X% 7d) | mcap $XB | vol $XM (vol/mcap X.XX) Score breakdown: [trending+2, vol/mcap+3, RS vs BTC/ETH+2, narrative+1] = 8/10 Catalyst: [one sentence — what's driving this right now, named source/event] Risk: [one sentence — concrete risk, not generic "could go down"] Vs recent picks: [first time / repeat with new catalyst: ...] *Market: "Question?"* [HIGH | MEDIUM] edge Xpp Current: YES X¢ / NO Y¢ | 24h vol $Xm | resolves: DATE Fair YES: ~Y% (inputs: [src1], [src2], [src3]) Thesis: [one sentence — why the market is wrong, action implied] Risk: [one sentence — what could make your fair-value estimate wrong] sources: cg=ok|fail, dex=ok|fail, poly=ok|fail not financial advice — pattern-matching only ``` If only one of the two pick types qualifies, send just that one section (omit the other entirely — do not include a HIGH and a SKIP in the same message). ### 6b. Notification — skip day ``` *Daily Pick — ${today}* — no picks Token signals weak today (best: SYMBOL @ score 3/10). Markets either thin liquidity or no defensible edge ≥ 5pp (best: "Question?" edge 2pp). Tomorrow. sources: cg=ok|fail, dex=ok|fail, poly=ok|fail ``` If all sources failed, send `TOKEN_PICK_NO_DATA` with the source-status line — do not invent picks from cached intuition. ### 6c. Offer a deep-dive (force-reply — normal-day only) Only after a **normal-day** send (6a) — never on the skip-day (6b) or the no-data path (weak signals → no pick, so no offer). This skill is `read-only`, so it can't run the deep report itself; instead it offers to hand off to **token-movers** (write mode), which owns the single-token deep report and the `deep-dive:` handler. Because `force_reply` and inline buttons can't share one message, send this as a SEPARATE `./notify` AFTER the 6a pick: ```bash ./notify "Want a deeper report on a token? Reply with a ticker or contract." \ --force-reply --placeholder "e.g. WIF" \ --context "token-movers::deep-dive" ``` The `token-movers::deep-dive` marker routes the operator's reply to **token-movers** as `var="deep-dive:<their text>"`; token-movers strips the `deep-dive:` prefix and produces the single-token deep report. **Dedup.** token-pick runs once daily, so one offer per run is already once-per-day. Being `read-only`, it can't write a `FORCE_REPLY_OFFERED` marker — but it already reads recent logs, so if today's log already carries a `FORCE_REPLY_OFFERED: deep-dive` line (e.g. token-movers offered earlier today), SKIP this offer to avoid double-nagging. ### 7. Log to `memory/logs/${today}.md` ``` ### token-pick - **Token:** SYMBOL — $price (±X% 24h) — tier HIGH/MEDIUM/SKIP — score X/10 - **Token thesis:** [one line, including catalyst] - **Market:** "Question?" — YES X¢ — tier HIGH/MEDIUM/SKIP — edge Xpp - **Market thesis:** [one line, including fair-value estimate] - **Sources:** cg=ok|fail, dex=ok|fail, poly=ok|fail - **Notification sent:** yes (normal | skip | no-data) ``` Append symbol + market question on a single line for easy grep next-day dedup, e.g.: ``` TOKEN_PICK_DEDUP: SYMBOL | "Will X happen by Y?" ``` ## Network note There is no network sandbox — `curl` works, with **WebFetch** as the fallback for any URL fetch (CoinGecko, DexScreener, Polymarket all work without auth). For an auth'd API, call `./secretcurl` with a `{ENV_NAME}` placeholder (the key is injected via `requires:`). On total source failure, send the no-data notification rather than silent fail. ## Environment Variables - `COINGECKO_API_KEY` — CoinGecko API key (optional, increases rate limits) ## Constraints - **Never force a pick.** If signals are weak, the skip message IS the output. - **Never re-pick** the same token or market within 7 days unless you can state a new catalyst in one sentence. - **Show your work**: every score must show the breakdown; every edge must show the inputs. - Liquidity gates (mcap ≥ $20M for tokens, 24h vol ≥ $50k for markets) are hard floors — ignoring them turns the feed into a degen casino. - One token + one market max. Never bundle "honorable mentions" — that defeats the discipline.