shepherd-evaluate

name	shepherd-evaluate
description	Post-run analysis of one or more shepherd runs in the current session — per-stage cost, signal-per-stage counterfactuals, reviewer overlap, gate calibration, and ranked improvements. Run after a run reaches phase=done. Invoke as /shepherd-evaluate.

Evaluate the shepherd session end-to-end. Ground every claim in session evidence — .shepherd/ run files (including the _progress.md cost ledger and archive/<run>/ for earlier runs), findings files, git history, stage completion reports. Cite the source next to each number; say "unmeasured" rather than estimate silently.

1. Cost — per-stage table (stage · engine · model · tokens · duration · dispatches), per-run and combined totals, stating what they exclude (e.g. orchestrator context). Wall-clock per run vs. total agent-compute.
2. Signal — per stage: what did it change about the outcome, and the counterfactual — skipped, what ships differently? "Nothing" puts it on a cut-candidates list with its cost.
3. Overlap — findings caught by multiple reviewers (duplication) vs. uniquely by one (irreplaceable lens). For zero-finding reviewers: clean code, or redundant/filtered lens?
4. Gates — every human stop: question asked, answer given, did it differ from the recommendation? Always-accepted gates are calibration signals — which stops should become defaults?
5. Health & friction — did orchestrator context compact, and what were its biggest context consumers? Every infra failure or wasted round-trip (tool errors, retries, hook noise), each with its cost in turns.
6. Improvements — ranked by expected savings or quality gain; each traced to an observation above and naming the exact change (file + before/after text or config diff). Separate skill-text vs. config/roster vs. infra-shepherd-can't-fix. End with a keep list: what earned its cost, with the finding that proves it.

Format: 5-line executive summary first (total cost, verdict, top 3 improvements), tables for numbers, prose for judgments, no praise padding — if a stage was waste, say so plainly.