subscription-lifecycle

# Subscription Lifecycle You optimize every stage of the subscription journey: trial → paid → renewal → cancellation recovery → win-back. ## The Subscription Lifecycle ``` Install → Trial start → [Trial period] → Conversion → Renewal → ... → Cancel → Win-back ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ No convert Voluntary Involuntary Lapsed (nurture) (exit survey) (dunning) (campaign) ``` ## Key Metrics at Each Stage | Stage | Metric | Formula | Benchmark | |-------|--------|---------|-----------| | Trial | Trial start rate | Trials / Downloads | > 20% | | Trial | Trial-to-paid | Conversions / Trials | 25–40% strong | | Retention | Month 1 renewal | M1 renewals / Subscribers | > 70% | | Retention | Month 6 renewal | M6 renewals / Subscribers | > 50% | | Churn | Monthly churn | Lost subs / Start subs | < 5% good; < 2% excellent | | Revenue | MRR | Active subs × monthly price | — | | Revenue | LTV | ARPU / Monthly churn rate | — | | Recovery | Dunning recovery | Recovered / Failed payments | > 30% | | Win-back | Resubscribe rate | Returns / Lapsed | 5–15% | ## Stage 1 — Trial Optimization ### Trial Length | App Type | Recommended trial | Notes | |----------|------------------|-------| | Simple utility | 3–7 days | Value obvious quickly | | Health/fitness | 7–14 days | Habit formation needs time | | Productivity | 7–14 days | Workflow integration | | Education | 7–14 days | First lesson completion | | Entertainment | 7 days | Binge behavior | **Test:** Monthly apps with a 7-day trial vs. 14-day trial — conversion rate may drop slightly but LTV often increases. ### Trial Nurture Sequence Send in-app (or push) messages during the trial to drive activation: ``` Day 0: Welcome — "Your trial has started. Here's how to get the most from it." Day 1: Core feature highlight — "Try [key feature] today" Day 3: Progress / social proof — "Users who do X get 3× better results" Day 5 (7-day trial): Urgency — "2 days left in your trial" Day 6: Value recap — "Here's what you've done / could do with premium" Day 7: Last day — "Your trial ends today" ``` **Rule:** Messages should show value, not just create pressure. ### Trial End — Conversion Moment At trial end, show a paywall that: - Recaps what the user achieved during the trial - Shows the most-used premium features - Offers 3 plan options (monthly / annual / lifetime if applicable) - Highlights savings on annual ("Save 40%") See `monetization-strategy` for paywall design details. ## Stage 2 — Reducing Voluntary Churn ### Why Users Cancel (and How to Fix It) | Reason | Signal | Fix | |--------|--------|-----| | Forgot they subscribed | Low sessions, no activation | Improve onboarding + notification strategy | | Not enough value | Low feature usage | Push underused high-value features | | Too expensive | Price sensitivity | Introduce lower-tier or pause option | | Problem with app | 1-star reviews | Fix the bug, reply to reviews | | Found alternative | — | Monitor competitor installs | | Seasonal use | Churns at same time yearly | Offer a pause option | ### The Cancellation Flow When a user initiates cancellation (iOS — `ManagedSubscriptionGroup`): 1. **Offer a pause** before full cancel: "Pause for 1–3 months instead of cancelling" 2. **Show value recap**: "You've used [feature] X times this month" 3. **Offer a discount**: Only as last resort — 20–30% off for 3 months 4. **Exit survey**: Always ask "Why are you cancelling?" (1 tap, not an essay) **Cancellation exit survey options:** - Too expensive - Not using it enough - Missing a feature I need - Switching to a competitor - Technical issues - Just taking a break ### Engagement Signals to Watch Users at high churn risk: - Sessions < 1 per week (down from higher baseline) - Core feature not used in 14+ days - Push notifications disabled - Last session > 7 days ago Trigger a re-engagement push or in-app message before they cancel. ## Stage 3 — Involuntary Churn (Failed Payments) Involuntary churn accounts for **20–40%** of all subscription cancellations. ### Dunning Strategy | Day | Action | |-----|--------| | 0 | Payment fails silently — Apple/Google retry | | 3 | Apple/Google retry #2 | | 7 | Apple/Google retry #3 — show in-app "Update payment method" banner | | 10 | Send push: "Your subscription couldn't be renewed — tap to update" | | 14 | Grace period ends — subscription suspended | | 15 | Final in-app message: "Reactivate to keep access" | **Grace period:** - iOS: 6 days (configurable up to 16 in App Store Connect) - Android: 3 days (configurable) Maximize grace period length — every extra day recovers more subscribers. ### RevenueCat Integration RevenueCat handles dunning automatically. Key settings: - Enable Billing Retry (iOS) / Account Hold (Android) - Configure grace period to maximum allowed - Use RevenueCat webhooks to trigger in-app messaging at each failure event See `revenuecat.md` integration guide. ## Stage 4 — Win-Back Campaigns Target lapsed subscribers (cancelled or expired in last 30–90 days). ### Win-Back Offer Ladder Start with the softest offer; escalate only if no response: ``` Week 1 after lapse: "We miss you" — highlight new features added since they left Week 3: "Come back for 30% off your first month back" Week 6: "3 months at 50% off — best offer we'll make" Week 12+: Archive — low conversion probability ``` ### Win-Back Channels | Channel | How | |---------|-----| | Push notification | In-app if app still installed | | Email | If email was collected | | Apple Win-Back Offer | Native iOS win-back offer in StoreKit 2 | | Paid retargeting | Meta/Google retargeting to lapsed subscriber list | ### StoreKit 2 Win-Back Offers (iOS 18+) Apple natively supports win-back subscription offers for lapsed subscribers: - Set up in App Store Connect → Subscriptions → Win-Back Offers - Presented automatically in the App Store to eligible lapsed users - No additional code needed beyond StoreKit 2 integration ## Output Format ### Subscription Health Report ``` Lifecycle Metrics ([period]): Trial start rate: [X]% (benchmark: >20%) Trial conversion: [X]% (benchmark: 25-40%) M1 renewal: [X]% (benchmark: >70%) Monthly churn: [X]% (benchmark: <5%) Dunning recovery: [X]% (benchmark: >30%) Win-back rate: [X]% (benchmark: 5-15%) LTV (estimated): $[N] MRR: $[N] Top issues: 1. [Stage] — [metric] is [X]% vs benchmark [Y]% — [recommended fix] 2. [Stage] — [metric] is [X]% vs benchmark [Y]% — [recommended fix] Priority action: [Single highest-leverage change to implement this week] ``` ## Related Skills - `monetization-strategy` — Paywall design, pricing tiers, trial setup - `retention-optimization` — Engagement strategy to reduce voluntary churn - `app-analytics` — Track the metrics above with Firebase + RevenueCat - `onboarding-optimization` — Fix early-stage drop-off that prevents trial starts - `rating-prompt-strategy` — Satisfied subscribers are your best raters