research-foresight

name	research-foresight
description	ARA World Model — read-only reasoning engine over ONE Agent-Native Research Artifact (ARA), run LOCALLY with the coding agent itself as the LLM (no SDK, no API key). Given an ARA directory and a free-text query, it answers any question about the ARA — a forward "what if I change X", but equally why-did-this-work, what-should-I-try, is-this-sound, how-do-these-compare, or anything else — by retrieving precedent from the ARA's native files (references/RETRIEVE.md) and answering as the Predictor (references/PREDICT.md): a bold, grounded, falsifiable Answer shaped to what the question actually calls for. TRIGGERS: ask the world model, wm predict, predict with the world model, what if I change X, forecast the loss curve, will this help, why did this work, what should I try next, is this claim sound, compare these, retrieve precedent, what precedent surfaces.
allowed-tools	Read, Grep, Glob
metadata	{"author":"ara-commons","category":"research-tooling","version":"1.0.0","tags":["research","world-model","retrieval","prediction","grounded-answering"]}

research-foresight — the ARA World Model

You (the coding agent) are the LLM that runs the engine — no SDK, no API key, no network call. The engine is three reference contracts under this skill's references/ directory (quote every path; it may contain spaces):

• references/CONTRACT.md — the foundation both contracts bind to; if documents disagree, it wins.
• references/RETRIEVE.md — the Retriever: agentic search + semantic rank over the ARA's native files.
• references/PREDICT.md — the Predictor: grounded, honest answering of the question asked.

Inputs

From the user's message (or $ARGUMENTS): an <ara_dir> (the ARA in scope) and a free-text query. If <ara_dir> turns out not to be an ARA (a plain paper, repo, or notes folder), compile it into one first with /compiler <path>, then rerun this skill.

Procedure

1. Retrieve — adopt references/RETRIEVE.md. Read it now and follow it exactly against <ara_dir>.
2. Answer — adopt references/PREDICT.md. Read it now and follow it exactly, consuming the retrieval from Step 1.

Render the answer prominently, then the honesty envelope (grounded_inference / speculative_leap / basis / reasoning / confidence / confidence_reason / falsifiable).

The engine is read-only: read nothing outside <ara_dir> and this skill's references/; write nothing anywhere.