financial-modeling

name	financial-modeling
description	Build financial models — assumption documentation, revenue/cost drivers, scenario toggles, sensitivity tables, and model validation. TRIGGER when: user says /financial-modeling, needs to build a financial model, or asks about forecasting and scenario analysis.
argument-hint	[business or project to model]
user-invocable	true

Financial Modeling

Process

Step 1: Define Model Purpose

Purpose	Type	Complexity
Fundraising	3-statement + projections	High
Project evaluation	DCF / NPV	Medium
Budget planning	Revenue + expense forecast	Medium
Scenario analysis	Toggle-based projections	Medium

Step 2: Document Assumptions

Category	Assumption	Source	Sensitivity
Revenue growth	X% YoY	Historical + market	High
Gross margin	X%	Last 4 quarters	Medium
CAC	$X	Last 12 months	High
Churn rate	X% monthly	Cohort analysis	High

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Driver	Formula	Y1	Y2	Y3
New customers	Spend / CAC	X	X	X
Churned	Base × churn	X	X	X
Revenue	Customers × ARPU	$X	$X	$X

Step 4: Build Cost Model

Category	Type	Driver	Y1	Y2	Y3
COGS	Variable	Revenue × margin	$X	$X	$X
Engineering	Semi-fixed	Headcount × salary	$X	$X	$X
S&M	Variable	CAC × new	$X	$X	$X

Step 5: Add Scenarios

Scenario	Growth	Churn	Burn Rate
Bear	X%	X%	$X/mo
Base	X%	X%	$X/mo
Bull	X%	X%	$X/mo

Step 6: Validate

Check	Method
Formula audit	Trace to source
Sense check	Match industry benchmarks
Stress test	Extreme inputs
Historical fit	Replicate actuals

Output Format

## Model: [Name]
### Assumptions: [table]
### Projections: [3-5 year summary]
### Scenarios: [Bear/Base/Bull]
### Sensitivity: [key drivers]

Quality Checklist

• Assumptions documented with sources
• Formulas reference assumptions (no hardcoded numbers)
• Scenarios toggleable
• Stress-tested
• Balance sheet balances (if applicable)

Edge Cases

• For SaaS, model MRR/ARR with cohort-based churn
• For marketplaces, model both supply and demand sides
• For fundraising, include dilution impact