| name | benf - Benefit Estimation |
| description | Estimates the benefits of an action or investment. Lists direct, indirect, and downstream benefits, quantifies where possible, and calculates expected value. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
Benefit Estimation
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Step 1: Identify All Potential Benefits
Cast a wide net. Include direct, indirect, and downstream effects.
ACTION/INVESTMENT: [What is being evaluated for benefits]
DIRECT BENEFITS (immediate, obvious results):
1. [Benefit 1] — who gains: [beneficiary]
2. [Benefit 2] — who gains: [beneficiary]
INDIRECT BENEFITS (second-order effects):
1. [Benefit 1] — mechanism: [how it arises from the direct benefits]
2. [Benefit 2] — mechanism: [how it arises from the direct benefits]
DOWNSTREAM BENEFITS (long-term, compounding effects):
1. [Benefit 1] — timeline: [when it materializes]
2. [Benefit 2] — timeline: [when it materializes]
TOTAL BENEFITS IDENTIFIED: [count]
Step 2: Quantify Where Possible
Put numbers on benefits that can be measured. Be honest about precision.
QUANTIFIABLE BENEFITS:
1. [Benefit] — estimated value: [number + unit]
Basis: [How did you arrive at this number?]
2. [Benefit] — estimated value: [number + unit]
Basis: [How did you arrive at this number?]
NON-QUANTIFIABLE BENEFITS:
1. [Benefit] — qualitative impact: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
Description: [Why it matters even though you can't put a number on it]
2. [Benefit] — qualitative impact: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
Description: [Why it matters even though you can't put a number on it]
Step 3: Estimate Probability
Not all benefits are certain. Assess the likelihood of each materializing.
BENEFIT PROBABILITIES:
1. [Benefit] — probability: [0-100%] — confidence in probability: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
Rationale: [Why this probability]
2. [Benefit] — probability: [0-100%] — confidence in probability: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
Rationale: [Why this probability]
CORRELATED BENEFITS: [Which benefits rise and fall together?]
INDEPENDENT BENEFITS: [Which benefits materialize regardless of others?]
Step 4: Calculate Expected Value
For quantifiable benefits, compute expected value. For non-quantifiable, provide a qualitative roll-up.
EXPECTED VALUE (quantifiable):
1. [Benefit]: [value] x [probability] = [expected value]
2. [Benefit]: [value] x [probability] = [expected value]
TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE: [sum]
QUALITATIVE EXPECTED VALUE:
- High-probability, high-impact: [list]
- High-probability, low-impact: [list]
- Low-probability, high-impact: [list — these are the wildcards]
Step 5: State Total Benefit
TOTAL QUANTIFIED BENEFIT: [number with units]
CONFIDENCE RANGE: [low end] to [high end]
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: [50% / 80% / 90%]
KEY QUALITATIVE BENEFITS: [Top 2-3 that matter but can't be numbered]
BIGGEST UPSIDE RISK: [What could make benefits much larger than estimated?]
BIGGEST DOWNSIDE RISK: [What could make benefits fail to materialize?]
TIME TO REALIZE: [When do benefits start showing up?]
BENEFIT HALF-LIFE: [How long do the benefits last before they decay?]
Integration
Use with:
/efrt -> Pair with effort for a full ROI picture/cba -> Formal cost-benefit analysis using this benefit estimate/ratn -> Build a rationale around the benefits for stakeholders
