| name | efrt - Effort Estimation |
| description | Estimates how much effort something will take. Decomposes into subtasks, applies three-point estimation, adds buffers, and compares to reference classes. |
| output | {"format":"prose"} |
Effort Estimation
Input: $ARGUMENTS
Step 1: Decompose into Subtasks
Break the work into concrete, estimable pieces.
WORK ITEM: [What is being estimated]
DEFINITION OF DONE: [What counts as complete]
SUBTASKS:
1. [Subtask 1] — deliverable: [what it produces]
2. [Subtask 2] — deliverable: [what it produces]
3. [Subtask 3] — deliverable: [what it produces]
...
DEPENDENCIES: [Which subtasks depend on others?]
DECOMPOSITION CONFIDENCE: [Are these subtasks well-defined enough to estimate?]
Step 2: Three-Point Estimate Each Subtask
For each subtask, estimate optimistic, likely, and pessimistic effort.
SUBTASK 1 — [name]:
Optimistic: [time/effort — everything goes right]
Likely: [time/effort — normal conditions]
Pessimistic: [time/effort — significant obstacles]
Expected: [weighted average: (O + 4L + P) / 6]
SUBTASK 2 — [name]:
Optimistic: [time/effort]
Likely: [time/effort]
Pessimistic: [time/effort]
Expected: [weighted average]
[Repeat for all subtasks]
RAW TOTAL: [Sum of all expected values]
Step 3: Add Buffer for Unknowns
Account for things you cannot see yet.
KNOWN UNKNOWNS:
- [Thing you know you don't know 1]
- [Thing you know you don't know 2]
UNKNOWN UNKNOWN RISK: [LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH]
LOW = well-understood work, multiply by 1.2x
MEDIUM = some novelty, multiply by 1.5x
HIGH = significant unknowns, multiply by 2.0x
BUFFER MULTIPLIER: [1.2x / 1.5x / 2.0x]
BUFFERED TOTAL: [raw total * multiplier]
Step 4: Reference Class Comparison
Compare to similar past work for a sanity check.
REFERENCE CLASS: [What category of work is this similar to?]
COMPARABLE EXAMPLES:
1. [Past work 1] — actual effort: [what it took]
2. [Past work 2] — actual effort: [what it took]
3. [Past work 3] — actual effort: [what it took]
REFERENCE CLASS AVERAGE: [typical effort for this kind of work]
COMPARISON: [How does your estimate compare? Within range or outlier?]
ADJUSTMENT: [If your estimate differs significantly, adjust or explain why]
Step 5: Final Estimate
FINAL ESTIMATE: [time/effort]
CONFIDENCE RANGE: [low end] to [high end]
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: [How confident: 50%? 80%? 90%?]
BIGGEST RISK TO ESTIMATE: [What could blow this estimate up?]
WHAT WOULD MAKE IT FASTER: [Conditions that could reduce effort]
WHAT WOULD MAKE IT SLOWER: [Conditions that could increase effort]
RECOMMENDATION: [Commit to this estimate? Or gather more info first?]
Integration
Use with:
/benf -> Pair effort with benefit for ROI calculation/ratn -> Build a rationale around the estimate for stakeholders/ctgp -> Estimate effort for filling category gaps
