gop-good-outcome-analysis

name	gop - Good Outcome Analysis
description	Systematically identify, define, and maximize the probability of good outcomes for any situation, plan, or decision.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Good Outcome Analysis

Input: $ARGUMENTS

---

Step 1: DEFINE GOOD

Before analyzing, establish what "good" means here.

1. Good for whom? List all stakeholders.
2. Good on what dimensions? (Financial, health, relationships, growth, freedom, etc.)
3. Good over what timeframe? (Immediate, 1 year, 10 years, lifetime?)
4. Good compared to what? (Status quo, alternatives, ideal?)

GOOD OUTCOME DEFINITION:
For: [stakeholders]
Dimensions: [what matters]
Timeframe: [when]
Baseline: [compared to what]

---

Step 2: ENUMERATE GOOD OUTCOMES

List every positive outcome that could result. Be exhaustive.

For each:

1. What specifically happens?
2. How good is it? (Nice / Good / Great / Transformative)
3. How likely is it? (Unlikely / Possible / Likely / Very likely)
4. Is it a direct result or a downstream effect?

GOOD OUTCOMES:
1. [outcome] — [magnitude] — [likelihood] — [direct/downstream]
2. ...

---

Step 3: OUTCOME DEPENDENCIES

Map which good outcomes enable other good outcomes:

• Does outcome A make outcome B more likely?
• Are any outcomes mutually exclusive?
• Is there a keystone outcome that unlocks many others?

OUTCOME CHAIN:
[keystone outcome] -> enables [outcome B] + [outcome C]
[outcome B] -> enables [outcome D]

Identify the keystone outcome — the one good thing that makes everything else more likely.

---

Step 4: WHAT MAKES GOOD OUTCOMES HAPPEN?

For each high-value outcome:

1. Preconditions — What must be true first?
2. Actions — What specific actions increase probability?
3. Timing — When does the window open/close?
4. Resources — What is needed?
5. Dependencies — What else must succeed first?

---

Step 5: OBSTACLES TO GOOD OUTCOMES

For each high-value outcome:

1. What could prevent it?
2. What usually prevents it in similar situations?
3. What is the most likely failure mode?
4. Is the obstacle removable?

---

Step 6: MAXIMIZE

GOOD OUTCOME STRATEGY:

Keystone outcome: [the one that unlocks the most]

Actions to maximize probability:
1. [highest-leverage action]
2. [second-highest]
3. [third]

Obstacles to remove:
1. [most critical obstacle] -> [how to remove]

Expected good outcomes if strategy succeeds:
- [primary good outcome]
- [secondary good outcomes]
- [downstream positive effects]

What "great" looks like: [best realistic case]
What "good enough" looks like: [minimum acceptable positive outcome]

---

Integration

Use with:

• /ogo -> Check for obvious good outcomes you might be missing
• /obo -> Balance with obvious bad outcome analysis
• /br -> Work backward from the good outcome
• /fla -> Identify what could prevent the good outcome
• /eth -> Ensure the good outcome is ethically sound