hvh-high-volatility-handler

name	hvh - High Volatility Handler
description	Handle goals and plans in rapidly changing environments where conditions shift faster than normal planning cycles.
output	{"format":"prose"}

High Volatility Handler

Input: $ARGUMENTS

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Overview

Standard planning assumes relative stability. High-volatility environments break this — conditions change faster than plans can adapt. This procedure adjusts planning horizon, decision speed, information gathering, and commitment level to match the rate of change.

Step 0: Assess Volatility

Dimension	Low	Medium	High	Extreme
Change rate	Months	Weeks	Days	Hours
Predictability	Forecastable	Trend-visible	Surprises common	Chaotic
Impact of being wrong	Minor	Moderate	Major	Critical
Information lag	Real-time	Hours	Days	Unreliable

Volatility type:

• Market: prices, demand, competition shifting
• Technical: technology, platforms, tools changing
• Political: regulations, policies, power dynamics
• Environmental: conditions, resources, access changing
• Social: public opinion, team dynamics, relationships

Steps

Step 1: Shorten Planning Horizon

1. Standard planning horizon ÷ volatility factor = adjusted horizon
   • Low volatility: plan 6-12 months
   • Medium: plan 1-3 months
   • High: plan 1-4 weeks
   • Extreme: plan 1-3 days
2. Beyond the horizon: have directions, not plans
3. Replace detailed long-term plans with strategic intent + adaptation rules

Step 2: Build Decision Speed

1. Pre-decide: what decisions can be made now for common scenarios?
2. Create if-then rules: "If [condition], then [action] without further analysis"
3. Identify who can decide without escalation
4. Set a maximum decision delay for each decision type
5. Accept: faster decisions with less information beats slow decisions with more

Step 3: Increase Information Frequency

1. What are your leading indicators? (things that change before outcomes change)
2. How often do you check them? Double the frequency.
3. Set tripwires: "If [indicator] crosses [threshold], reassess immediately"
4. Diversify information sources (single source = single point of failure)
5. Distinguish signal from noise (more data ≠ better data in volatile environments)

Step 4: Reduce Commitment Size

1. Break large commitments into smaller, reversible ones
2. Prefer: options over commitments, experiments over launches, pilots over rollouts
3. Keep reserves: don't commit 100% of resources
4. Build exit ramps into every plan
5. Cost of changing course should be low by design

Step 5: Create Contingencies

1. For each plan element, ask: "What if this becomes impossible/irrelevant tomorrow?"
2. Maintain 2-3 alternative paths for critical objectives
3. Identify resources that can be redirected quickly
4. Pre-negotiate flexibility where possible (contracts, partnerships, commitments)

Step 6: Execute with Frequent Reassessment

1. Execute current plan
2. At each checkpoint (per shortened horizon):
   • Has anything changed that invalidates the plan?
   • Are tripwires triggered?
   • Is the direction still right even if tactics need adjusting?
3. Adapt or continue — don't agonize, decide and move

VOLATILITY ASSESSMENT:
Environment: [description]
Volatility: [low/medium/high/extreme]
Type: [market/technical/political/environmental/social]

Adjusted approach:
- Planning horizon: [timeframe]
- Decision speed: [target response time]
- Check frequency: [how often]
- Commitment size: [maximum before checkpoint]
- Contingencies: [N alternatives maintained]

When to Use

• Startups in fast-moving markets
• Crisis periods
• Political uncertainty affecting plans
• Technology transitions
• Any situation where "the plan" keeps becoming obsolete

Verification

• Volatility type and level assessed
• Planning horizon adjusted to match
• Decision speed increased (pre-decisions, if-then rules)
• Information gathering frequency increased
• Commitments sized to be reversible
• Contingencies prepared