mtnw-medium-term-new-domains

name	mtnw - Medium-Term New Domains
description	Identify entirely new areas worth expanding into over months. Survey adjacent possibilities and assess strategic fit.
output	{"format":"prose"}

Medium-Term New Domains

Input: $ARGUMENTS

---

Step 1: Survey Adjacent Possibilities

Map the landscape of domains that are reachable from the current position.

ADJACENT DOMAINS:
1. [Domain name]: [What it is and why it's adjacent to current work]
2. [Domain name]: [What it is and why it's adjacent]
3. [Domain name]: [What it is and why it's adjacent]
...

Rules:

• "Adjacent" means you have some existing capability, knowledge, or asset that transfers
• Include domains that are genuinely new, not extensions of current work
• Cast wide — list 5-10 possibilities before narrowing
• Include at least one surprising or non-obvious option

---

Step 2: Assess Demand Signals

For each domain, check if there's actual demand.

DEMAND ASSESSMENT:
1. [Domain]:
   - Signal strength: [STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK / SPECULATIVE]
   - Evidence: [What specifically indicates demand]
   - Trend direction: [GROWING / STABLE / DECLINING]
   - Who wants this: [target audience/customer]

2. [Domain]:
   ...

Rules:

• Strong signal = people are already paying for this or actively requesting it
• Moderate signal = clear interest but unproven willingness to pay/adopt
• Weak signal = you think they should want it but evidence is thin
• Speculative = no evidence, just a bet on the future
• Be honest — most ideas have weaker signals than they feel like

---

Step 3: Estimate Investment Required

For each domain, estimate what it would take to enter meaningfully.

INVESTMENT ESTIMATE:
1. [Domain]:
   - Time to minimum viable entry: [months]
   - Resources needed: [people, money, tools, partnerships]
   - Key capabilities to build: [what you don't have yet]
   - Opportunity cost: [what you'd have to stop or slow down]

2. [Domain]:
   ...

Rules:

• "Minimum viable entry" is not "world-class" — it's the smallest version that tests the domain
• Opportunity cost is mandatory — entering a new domain always means less focus elsewhere
• Be specific about capabilities you'd need to build vs. what you already have

---

Step 4: Evaluate Strategic Fit

Assess how well each domain aligns with long-term direction.

STRATEGIC FIT:
1. [Domain]:
   - Alignment with core mission: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]
   - Reinforces existing strengths: [YES / PARTIALLY / NO]
   - Creates new strategic options: [what doors does this open]
   - Risk of distraction: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]

2. [Domain]:
   ...

Rules:

• A domain can have high demand but low strategic fit — that's a trap
• "Creates new strategic options" is valuable — domains that open multiple futures score higher
• High distraction risk requires proportionally higher reward to justify

---

Step 5: Recommend Domains to Enter

Synthesize everything into a recommendation.

DOMAIN RECOMMENDATIONS:
ENTER (high confidence):
- [Domain]: [one-line rationale]

EXPLORE FURTHER (promising but uncertain):
- [Domain]: [what you'd need to learn before committing]

MONITOR (not yet, but watch):
- [Domain]: [what signal would trigger re-evaluation]

SKIP (poor fit despite surface appeal):
- [Domain]: [why]

Rules:

• "Enter" should have strong demand + reasonable investment + good strategic fit
• Limit "Enter" to 1-2 domains — focus matters
• "Skip" is as valuable as "Enter" — it prevents wasted effort
• For each "Explore further," specify a concrete next step

---

Integration

Use with:

• /stcc -> Finish current clusters before expanding into new domains
• /cba -> Do a detailed cost-benefit analysis on any "Enter" recommendation
• /se -> Enumerate the full space of a promising domain before entering
• /ltai -> Consider how AI agents could accelerate domain entry