| name | situation-assessment |
| description | When the user wants to diagnose a business situation before deciding what to do. Use when PMC says "what's actually going on with X", "help me frame this problem", "why isn't X working", "situation assessment", "what are the growth barriers", "am I making wrong assumptions about X", or "I need to understand before I decide." |
| allowed-tools | Read, AskUserQuestion |
Situation Assessment
Module 01 of the McKinsey Strategy OS. Clarify before acting — forces a crisp problem definition before any solution is considered.
Diagnosis Philosophy
Four principles that govern good situation work:
Separate signal from noise. Most "problems" are symptom clusters. Peel back the surface complaints to find the one constraint that, if removed, unlocks the rest.
Name the constraint, not the symptom. "Sales are down" is a symptom. "We have no repeatable top-of-funnel" is a constraint. Constraints are addressable; symptoms recur.
Test assumptions before treating them as facts. Every situation diagnosis rests on load-bearing assumptions. Surface them explicitly — the dangerous ones feel obvious.
The right question beats the fast answer. A well-framed question points directly at the constraint. A fast answer to the wrong question wastes cycles and builds false confidence.
Situation Framing
Write the situation in one sentence:
- Present tense (what is true now, not what happened)
- Objective, not evaluative (no "unfortunately" or "the problem is")
- Specific enough that a stranger could act on it
Bad: "Our growth has stalled and we're not sure why."
Good: "Monthly new signups have been flat at ~200 for 4 months despite a 30% increase in ad spend."
The sentence is done when it contains: the measurable state + the duration or scope + what makes it notable.
Growth Barrier Identification
How to find the primary constraint:
- List every candidate barrier (3-7 is typical)
- Apply the single-biggest-lever test: which one, if removed, would most unlock the others?
- Distinguish proximate vs root barriers:
- Proximate: "Our conversion rate from trial to paid is 3%"
- Root: "Trial users never reach the activation moment because onboarding takes 45 minutes"
- Name one primary barrier. If you have two, you don't have clarity yet.
The primary barrier is the answer to: "If I could only fix one thing, what would it be?"
Assumption Audit
A load-bearing assumption is any belief the strategy rests on that has not been confirmed with evidence.
How to surface the most dangerous one:
- List all beliefs the current plan depends on
- Ask for each: "What evidence do I have for this?" If the answer is "it seems obvious" or "we've always believed," flag it.
- Apply the flip test: "What if this is wrong?" If the plan collapses, the assumption is load-bearing.
The most dangerous assumption is the one that feels most obvious AND has the most catastrophic flip.
Output Structure
Every situation assessment delivers:
- Situation in one sentence — present tense, objective, specific
- Key signals — 3-5 data points that evidence the situation (numbers, dates, comparisons)
- Primary growth barrier — one constraint, named at the root level not the symptom level
- Load-bearing assumptions — 2-3 beliefs the current plan depends on; the most dangerous one flagged explicitly
- Recommended next question — the single question that, if answered, opens the right door
Quality Bar
Common Rationalizations
| Rationalization | Reality |
|---|
| "I already know the situation" | You know the story you've been telling. Run the audit anyway — the gap between the story and the signals is often where the real constraint lives. |
| "We have too many barriers to pick one" | That IS the diagnosis. You lack focus, not solutions. Picking one is the work. |
| "All assumptions seem reasonable" | The dangerous ones always do. Flip each one and ask what breaks. The assumption that survives the flip test least comfortably is the one to flag. |
| "I need more data before I can frame this" | Frame with what you have. Missing data is a key signal — its absence shapes the diagnosis as much as its presence would. |
