| name | Lease vs Cash Analyzer |
| description | Use to compute lease structure (cap cost / money factor / residual / acquisition / disposition), compare lease total cost vs cash purchase, decide lease vs buy given buyer's ownership horizon, and check captive lender early-buyout policy. Triggers include "lease or buy", "lease 数学", "compute lease monthly", "money factor markup", "lease cash incentive", "lease vs cash break-even", and Spanish phrase "leasing o compra al contado". |
Lease vs Cash Analyzer
Caveat: this skill is one author's playbook + 5-scenario stress test. Verify state fees / CPO terms / EV credits / dealer practices against current sources before quoting numbers to a dealer or making financial decisions. Not tax, legal, or financial advice.
last_verified: 2026-05-18 (Phase 3C sub-skill split from orchestrator)
Narrow helper: lease structure math, lease-vs-cash break-even, captive lender
policy lookup. Defers the full theory + worked tables to
../orchestrator/references/lease_playbook.md.
When To Use
- Buyer asks "should I lease or buy?" with a concrete vehicle + horizon
- Need to verify a dealer-quoted lease monthly is honest (MF buy-rate check)
- Need lease-end disposition / early-buyout policy for one OEM captive
NOTE — federal §45W lease pass-through is TERMINATED (acquired after 2025-09-30, OBBBA).
The "EV buyer fails §30D AGI cap, so route to §45W lease pass-through" play is dead
for any 2026 lease. Lessor captives can no longer capture the federal $7,500 commercial
credit, so it is not available as cap cost reduction. Any "EV lease credit" a dealer
advertises in 2026 is ordinary OEM lease cash / marketing money, NOT a federal credit —
do not present it as §45W pass-through or count it as a federal incentive. See the
CRITICAL banner in ev-buyer-helper. §45W content below is HISTORICAL only.
When NOT To Use
- General OTD cash math - delegate to
otd-calculator
- EV federal credit status / state rebate stacking - delegate to
ev-buyer-helper first (federal §30D/§25E/§45W all terminated 2025-09-30; state rebates are the only live layer)
- Pure CPO eligibility - delegate to
cpo-eligibility
Core Lease Formula
Monthly = ((CapCost - Residual) / Term) + (CapCost + Residual) * MF + Tax
Variables:
CapCost = MSRP - CapCostReduction - LeaseCash - ManufacturerRebate
+ AcquisitionFee + DealerAddOnsResidual = MSRP * Residual% (typical 50-65% at 36 mo)MF = APR / 2400 (money factor; dealer can mark up buy-rate)Term = 24 / 36 / 39 mo most common
Money Factor Markup Detection
Always ask the dealer for the BUY-RATE money factor explicitly. If quoted MF
exceeds prevailing captive buy-rate by more than 0.00040 (~ 1% APR), the dealer
is marking up. Markup converts to dealer reserve, paid to dealer monthly over
the lease term. Push back: "what is the buy-rate from {captive} on this
vehicle and tier?" If they refuse to share, assume markup.
State Tax-on-Lease Mechanics (4 buckets)
| Bucket | States | Mechanics |
|---|
| Lease-friendly | NJ, FL, CA, NV, WA | Tax on monthly payment only, not on residual buyout |
| Upfront-load (capitalizable) | NY, IL | Full-term tax due at signing; can be capitalized into cap cost |
| Heavy upfront | TX, DC | Tax on FULL cap cost up front, regardless of residual |
| Mixed | most others | Local rules vary; check state_fees.md |
For TX/DC the cash-purchase math frequently wins because the lease tax penalty
front-loads ~$3,500-5,000 on a $40k vehicle.
Lease vs Buy Decision Rules
| Ownership horizon | Mileage | Lean |
|---|
| < 3 yr | 10-12k mi/yr | Lease often wins (low residual exposure) |
| 3-5 yr | 10-12k mi/yr | Break-even; depends on MF vs cash APR + residual % |
| > 5 yr | any | Buy always wins (lease compounding monthly never stops) |
| any | > 15k mi/yr | Buy wins (excess-mileage penalty $0.15-0.30/mi) |
EV Lease §45W $7,500 Captured by Lessor — TERMINATED 2025-09-30 (HISTORICAL)
No longer available. OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) terminated the federal §45W
Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit for any vehicle acquired after 2025-09-30, on the
same date as §30D / §25E. A lessor can no longer capture a federal $7,500 credit on a
2026 EV lease, so the lease pass-through below is $0 of federal money and must NOT
be added to cap cost math or presented to a buyer as a federal incentive. Any 2026
"EV lease credit" line is ordinary OEM lease cash / marketing money — treat it as a
negotiable OEM incentive, not a federal credit. Retained below for pre-cutoff
(acquired on/before 2025-09-30) reference only. See the CRITICAL banner in
ev-buyer-helper.
Historically, the lessor (captive finance company) captured the federal Commercial Clean
Vehicle Credit, NOT the lessee. Pass-through varied by OEM (pre-cutoff only):
| OEM | Typical pass-through (HISTORICAL) | Notes |
|---|
| Hyundai / Kia / GM | Full $7,500 via cap cost reduction | Standard, advertised |
| Toyota / Honda / Ford | $4,500 - $7,500 | Varies by trim, region, promo |
| BMW / MB / Audi | $3,500 - $5,000 | Lowest pass-through |
This was historically useful for EV buyers who failed §30D AGI cap (single > $150k /
MFJ > $300k) or for vehicles that failed §30D MSRP / final-assembly tests (no AGI / MSRP
cap on §45W). All three credits are now terminated, so this routing no longer exists.
See ../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md § §45W.
Captive Lender Rules
| Captive | Early buyout | Mileage purchase | Lease assumption |
|---|
| Subaru Motors Finance (SMF) | After 1 payment | $0.15/mi at signing | Allowed; $500 fee |
| Toyota Financial Services (TFS) | After 6 mo | $0.15/mi | Allowed; ~$50 fee |
| Honda Financial Services (HFS) | After 6 mo | $0.15/mi | Allowed |
| Hyundai Capital | Day 1 (most flexible) | $0.20/mi | Allowed |
| Ford Credit | After 6 mo | $0.20/mi | Allowed |
| GM Financial | After 6 mo | $0.25/mi | Allowed |
| Chrysler Capital | After 90 days | $0.25/mi | Allowed |
| BMW Financial | After 4 payments | $0.25/mi | $500 fee |
Disposition fee at lease-end: $350-$495 typical. Often WAIVED if buyer leases
or buys another vehicle from the same OEM within 30 days of return.
Acquisition fee at signing: $595-$895. Sometimes capitalizable, sometimes paid
out of pocket - depends on captive. Always shown on the lease worksheet.
Lease Cash Conversion Trick
When the manufacturer offers lease cash but no cash-buyer rebate of comparable
size, the lease-then-buyout path captures the lease cash. Pattern:
- Lease the vehicle for 24 mo with manufacturer lease cash applied as cap
cost reduction.
- Confirm captive allows early buyout from day 1 (Hyundai) or after the
minimum waiting period.
- Exercise buyout at lease-end residual (or earlier per captive policy).
- Net cost = (24 mo of lease payments) + (residual buyout) + (taxes per
state); compare against a hypothetical cash purchase day 0.
Often saves $1,500-$3,500 on Hyundai/Kia/Subaru where lease cash > cash
rebate. Watch for: acquisition fee, disposition fee (waived if you buy out),
and any "lease loyalty" lockouts the captive may apply.
Worked Example
2026 Ioniq 5 SEL, 36mo / 12k mi lease (2026 acquisition — federal §45W is $0,
TERMINATED 2025-09-30):
- MSRP: $51,150
- Residual (55%): $28,133
- Money factor: 0.00125 (~3.0% APR equivalent)
- Federal §45W pass-through: $0 (TERMINATED 2025-09-30 — not available in 2026)
- OEM lease cash (if advertised, ordinary marketing money, verify on worksheet): varies;
treat as a negotiable OEM incentive, NOT a federal credit. Assume $0 for this example.
- Acquisition fee: $650
- Adjusted CapCost: 51,150 + 650 = $51,800
Monthly base = (51,800 - 28,133) / 36 = $657.42
Rent charge = (51,800 + 28,133) * 0.00125 = $99.92
Pre-tax monthly = $757.34
Apply NJ tax (lease-friendly, monthly only) at 6.625%: $50.17
Final monthly: ~$808
Historical contrast (pre-2025-10-01 acquisition only): with the §45W -$7,500 cap cost
reduction that used to exist, adjusted CapCost was $44,300, pre-tax monthly ~$540,
final ~$575. That ~$233/mo gap is the value the now-terminated federal credit used to
deliver. It is gone for any 2026 lease.
Cash alternative for same buyer:
- MSRP $51,150, negotiated to $48,000, plus TTL ~$3,000 = ~$51,000 OTD
- No federal credit on either side (§30D / §25E / §45W all terminated 2025-09-30)
- 36-mo TCO at lease (2026): 36 * $808 = $29,088 + $0 residual exposure (return car)
- 36-mo TCO at cash: $51,000 - resale ~$30,000 = $21,000 net depreciation
Without the federal credit the lease's monthly is much higher, so cash purchase now
generally wins on 36-mo TCO and clearly wins at 6+ years. Check live state rebates
(via ev-buyer-helper) as the only remaining incentive layer.
Cross-References
../orchestrator/references/lease_playbook.md - full formulas, residual
tables by OEM, region-specific MF charts, all 50-state tax mechanics../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md § §45W commercial credit
- full pass-through tables and lessor list (HISTORICAL: §45W terminated 2025-09-30;
see
ev-buyer-helper CRITICAL banner — no federal lease credit on 2026 acquisitions)
../orchestrator/references/state_fees.md - state TTL components for the
cash-comparison side../orchestrator/SKILL.md Critical Rule #4 - never quote a lease monthly
to the buyer without showing the MF + residual + cap cost breakdown
Output Contract
After every lease analysis, return to the operator:
Lease vs Cash analysis - <timestamp>
Vehicle: <year make model trim>, MSRP $<n>
Lease offer:
Term: <n> mo / <n>k mi
MF: 0.<nnnnn> (buy-rate <n>.<n>0%, markup <yes/no>)
Residual: <n>% = $<n>
CapCost (adjusted): $<n>
Monthly (pre-tax): $<n>
Monthly (with state tax): $<n>
Cash alt: $<n> OTD, 36mo NPV $<n>
Verdict: LEASE / BUY / BREAK-EVEN
Captive policy: early buyout <when>, disposition $<n>
