renewal-risk-review

name	renewal-risk-review
description	Use when preparing a renewal or forecasting a renewal cycle — produces a written per-account risk review from leading indicators, naming the risk, the evidence, the play, and the walk line so renewals are worked early instead of scrambled the week they're due.

Renewal Risk Review

A playbook for walking into a renewal already knowing whether it's at risk and what you'll do about it. The failure mode it prevents: a renewal worked the week it's due, discovered to be in trouble too late to save, and a forecast that's really just a hope.

Assess the risk on evidence

1. Start from the account's health score and its trend, then go past the number to the leading indicators: is core-feature adoption flat or falling, is the champion still in seat, are there unresolved escalations, has usage dropped since last quarter.
2. Weigh the relationship honestly — a strong champion can carry a shaky product story, and a departed champion can sink a healthy-looking account. Note who signs and who influences.
3. Classify the renewal: safe, at-risk, or likely-loss, with the specific evidence behind the call. "Feels fine" is not a classification.

Build the play before the conversation

4. For each at-risk renewal, name the single biggest threat and the play to counter it — re-establish adoption, rebuild the champion relationship, resolve the outstanding pain, or demonstrate unrealized value.
5. Assign the play to an owner with a due date comfortably ahead of the renewal date. Renewals are won in the quarter before they're due, not the final week.
6. Prepare the ask and the levers: what you're proposing, what you can flex (term, scope, timing), and — decided in advance — the walk line past which a save costs more than the account is worth. Concessions above that line go up for approval.

Forecast and track

7. Roll the per-account calls into a cycle forecast: expected renewal value, at-risk value, and the interventions behind each save, so leadership sees where the number actually stands.
8. Track each at-risk account to its outcome and feed the result back — did the play work, was the signal visible earlier — so the score and the next forecast get sharper.
9. Log the review, the play, and the outcome on the account's Task; a renewal without a written review is one being run on memory.

Quality bar

• Every renewal classified on named leading indicators, not sentiment.
• Each at-risk account has a play, an owner, and a due date ahead of renewal.
• The walk line is decided before the negotiation, not during it.
• The forecast rolls up from evidence and is tracked to outcome.

Output format

Renewal risk review: per-account classification (safe / at-risk / likely-loss) with evidence → biggest threat and the counter-play with owner and due date → ask, levers, and pre-set walk line → cycle forecast (expected / at-risk value) tracked to outcome.