القائمة
Estimate task duration from an AI-assisted development perspective rather than traditional human developer estimates
التثبيت باستخدام Codex أو Claude انسخ هذا Prompt والصقه في Codex أو Claude أو مساعد آخر ليراجع صفحة Skill ويثبّتها لك.
استنادا إلى تصنيف SOC المهني
Run the 7-step Artificial Critical Thinking pass — Materiality → Hypothesise → Alternatives → Disconfirmers → Audit priors → Severity → Commit-with-marker
Challenge what you think is right — alternative hypotheses, missing data, evidence quality, bias detection, falsifiability, and adversarial review
Step-back protocol — restate, generalise, specialise, invert, ask why, pre-mortem, check stakeholders, and audit framings before solving
Build knowledge bases that build software — research before code, teach before execute
Two-phase brain upgrade — mechanical install via shared core, then LLM-led semantic reconciliation
Clear documentation through visual excellence
| name | alex-effort-estimation |
| description | Estimate task duration from an AI-assisted development perspective rather than traditional human developer estimates |
| tier | extended |
| applyTo | **/*estimate*,**/*effort*,**/*planning*,**/*roadmap*,**/*tracker* |
| currency | "2026-04-22T00:00:00.000Z" |
Convert human developer estimates to AI-assisted timelines.
Last Updated: April 2026
| Unit | Time | Use For |
|---|---|---|
| ⚡ Instant | < 5 min | Single edit, lookup, generation |
| 🔄 Short | 5-30 min | Multi-file change, docs, skill |
| ⏱️ Medium | 30-60 min | Feature, test suite, debugging |
| 📦 Session | 1-2 hours | Major feature, release |
| 🗓️ Multi-session | 2+ hours | Large refactor, new system |
| Task Type | Human → Alex | Multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Research | 8h → 45m | ×0.10 |
| Code generation | 4h → 35m | ×0.15 |
| Documentation | 4h → 25m | ×0.10 |
| Skill creation | 2h → 15m | ×0.12 |
| Refactoring | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
| Bug fix (known cause) | 2h → 35m | ×0.30 |
| Bug fix (unknown) | 4h → 2h | ×0.50 |
| Architecture design | 8h → 2h | ×0.25 |
| Test writing | 4h → 1.5h | ×0.40 |
| New feature (S) | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
| New feature (M) | 2d → 3h | ×0.20 |
| New feature (L) | 1w → 6h | ×0.15 |
| Release process | 4h → 1h | ×0.25 |
Formula: Alex Time = Human Estimate × Multiplier + Bottlenecks
| Activity | Why Fast |
|---|---|
| Research | Semantic search vs browsing |
| Boilerplate | Generated, not typed |
| Multi-file edits | Parallel in one pass |
| Code review | Instant pattern recognition |
| Learning new tech | Bootstrap learning skill |
| Documentation | Generated from code/context |
These take real time regardless of AI:
| Bottleneck | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Test execution | ×1.0 | Parallelize, fast feedback loops |
| Build/compile | ×1.0 | Incremental builds, caching |
| Human approval | Variable | Batch decisions, async review |
| External APIs | Variable | Mock for dev, timeout handling |
| CI/CD pipeline | ×1.0 | Optimize pipeline, parallel jobs |
| Context loading | ×0.8 | Pre-read relevant files |
| Task | Human Est. | Alex Est. | Bottleneck |
|------|------------|-----------|------------|
| [Task] | [Xh/d] | [⚡🔄⏱️📦🗓️] | [None/Test/Approval/Build] |
Example:
| Task | Human | Alex | Bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add new API endpoint | 4h | 🔄 30m | None |
| Write integration tests | 3h | ⏱️ 1.5h | Test execution |
| Deploy to staging | 2h | 📦 1.5h | CI pipeline |
| Code review cycle | 2h | ⏱️ 2h | Human approval |
| Total | 11h | 📦 5.5h | - |
| Task Type | Human | Alex | Factor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Documentation | 4h | 25m | 10× | METHODOLOGY doc: 400 lines in ~30 min |
| Skill creation | 2h | 15m | 8× | 65 skills created, many in single sessions |
| Code generation | 4h | 30m | 8× | Slash commands, refactors |
| Research + synthesis | 8h | 45m | 10× | 62 project analysis in ~20 min |
| Architecture decisions | 8h | 2h | 4× | Root cause analysis + recommendations |
| Bottleneck | Why | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| External dependencies | Can't control | CookProject blocked by book formatting |
| Unrealistic scope | Must be discovered | Altman-Z-Score, KalabashDashboard |
| Task | Human Est. | Actual Alex | Bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|
| Update engine to 1.109 | 30m | ⚡ 5 min | None |
| Consolidate 9→3 agents | 4h | 🔄 20 min | None |
| Create 6 slash commands | 2h | 🔄 15 min | None |
| Refactor dream to shared | 4h | ⏱️ 45 min | Testing |
| Test all features | 2h | ⏱️ 1h | Human testing |
| Release process | 4h | 📦 1h | CI/approval |
| Total | 16.5h | 📦 2.5h | - |
Acceleration factor: 6.6×
| Good Sign | Bad Sign |
|---|---|
| Clear "done" definition | Vague scope |
| Quick win potential | External dependencies |
| Daily incremental work | Big-bang delivery |
| Defined acceptance criteria | "We'll know it when we see it" |
| Alex Estimate | Scope Health |
|---|---|
| ⚡ Instant | Perfect — ship it |
| 🔄 Short | Good — single session |
| ⏱️ Medium | OK — plan breaks |
| 📦 Session | Consider splitting |
| 🗓️ Multi-session | Split required |
❌ Instant everything — Testing and approval take real time
❌ Skip review — Speed without quality is waste
❌ Ignore iteration — First attempt isn't always right
❌ Forget context — Reading workspace takes time
❌ No buffer — Edge cases and clarifications happen