threat-modeling

name	threat-modeling
description	Systematic threat analysis using STRIDE and MITRE ATT&CK frameworks following Hack23 ISMS Threat Modeling Policy
license	Apache-2.0

Threat Modeling Skill

Purpose

This skill ensures systematic identification, analysis, and mitigation of security threats using structured methodologies as defined in the Hack23 ISMS Threat Modeling Policy. It applies to all systems, applications, and data flows within the organization.

Rules

Threat Modeling Process

MUST:

• Perform threat modeling during design phase of all new systems and features
• Use STRIDE framework (Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation, Information Disclosure, Denial of Service, Elevation of Privilege)
• Map threats to MITRE ATT&CK framework techniques
• Document threat model in version control alongside architecture docs
• Review and update threat models when architecture changes
• Assign risk ratings (Critical, High, Medium, Low) to identified threats
• Define mitigation strategies for all High and Critical threats
• Track threat model findings as security requirements

MUST NOT:

• Skip threat modeling for "simple" or "low-risk" features
• Perform threat modeling after implementation
• Ignore threats rated Medium or Low
• Treat threat modeling as one-time activity
• Document threats without corresponding mitigations

STRIDE Framework Application

Spoofing Identity (S):

• MUST implement strong authentication (MFA for privileged access)
• MUST protect authentication credentials in transit and at rest
• MUST validate identity at every trust boundary
• MUST log authentication events

Tampering with Data (T):

• MUST protect data integrity using cryptographic hashing or digital signatures
• MUST implement input validation to prevent injection attacks
• MUST use secure transport protocols (TLS 1.2+)
• MUST implement audit logging for data modifications

Repudiation (R):

• MUST implement comprehensive audit logging
• MUST protect log integrity (append-only, tamper-evident)
• MUST log user actions with sufficient detail for accountability
• MUST implement time synchronization (NTP)

Information Disclosure (I):

• MUST classify all data according to Data Classification Policy
• MUST encrypt sensitive data at rest and in transit
• MUST implement proper access controls
• MUST sanitize error messages and logs

Denial of Service (D):

• MUST implement rate limiting and throttling
• MUST design for scalability and resource limits
• MUST implement DDoS protection for public-facing services
• MUST monitor resource utilization

Elevation of Privilege (E):

• MUST implement principle of least privilege
• MUST separate administrative and user functions
• MUST validate authorization at each access point
• MUST implement secure session management

MITRE ATT&CK Mapping

MUST:

• Map identified threats to relevant ATT&CK techniques
• Reference ATT&CK tactic and technique IDs in threat documentation
• Use ATT&CK for threat intelligence and red team exercises
• Update mappings when ATT&CK framework is updated
• Consider both ATT&CK for Enterprise and ATT&CK for Cloud

Example Mappings:

• Credential Dumping → T1003
• Phishing → T1566
• SQL Injection → T1190
• Data Encrypted for Impact → T1486

Data Flow Diagrams (DFD)

MUST:

• Create DFDs showing all data flows between system components
• Identify trust boundaries in DFDs
• Mark sensitive data flows
• Document external entities, processes, data stores, and data flows
• Use DFDs as basis for threat identification

Components:

• External Entity (user, external system)
• Process (application, service, function)
• Data Store (database, file system, cache)
• Data Flow (network traffic, API call, file access)
• Trust Boundary (authentication point, network boundary)

Attack Trees

MUST:

• Build attack trees for High and Critical assets
• Identify multiple attack paths to achieve attacker goals
• Estimate attack difficulty and likelihood
• Prioritize mitigations based on attack tree analysis
• Update attack trees when new threats emerge

Threat Risk Rating

Risk Formula: Risk = Likelihood × Impact

Likelihood Ratings:

• High (3): Easily exploitable, well-known attack, no skill required
• Medium (2): Moderate skill required, some barriers to exploitation
• Low (1): Expert skill required, significant barriers

Impact Ratings:

• Critical (4): Complete system compromise, data breach, financial loss >$100k
• High (3): Significant data loss, system unavailability, financial loss $10k-$100k
• Medium (2): Limited data exposure, degraded service, financial loss $1k-$10k
• Low (1): Minimal impact, no data loss, financial loss <$1k

Risk Score Matrix:

• 9-12: Critical (immediate action required)
• 6-8: High (action required within 30 days)
• 3-5: Medium (action required within 90 days)
• 1-2: Low (accept or monitor)

Threat Mitigation

MUST:

• Define specific mitigations for each identified threat
• Assign mitigation responsibility
• Track mitigation implementation status
• Test that mitigations are effective
• Accept residual risk formally for threats that cannot be fully mitigated

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Eliminate: Remove the vulnerable feature or functionality
2. Reduce: Implement controls to reduce likelihood or impact
3. Transfer: Use insurance or third-party services
4. Accept: Formally accept residual risk with executive approval

Examples

Example 1: STRIDE Analysis for Authentication

## Component: User Login API

### Data Flow Diagram

[User] --username/password--> [Login API] --SQL query--> [Database] [Login API] --session token--> [User]

### Trust Boundaries
- Internet → Web Server
- Web Server → Database

### STRIDE Analysis

**S - Spoofing:**
- Threat: Attacker guesses weak passwords
- Risk: High Likelihood (3) × High Impact (3) = 9 (Critical)
- Mitigation: 
  - Implement strong password policy (12+ chars, complexity)
  - Implement account lockout after 5 failed attempts
  - Implement rate limiting (max 10 attempts/minute/IP)
  - Log all authentication attempts
- ATT&CK: T1110 (Brute Force)

**T - Tampering:**
- Threat: MitM attack captures credentials
- Risk: Medium Likelihood (2) × High Impact (3) = 6 (High)
- Mitigation:
  - Enforce TLS 1.2+ for all connections
  - Implement HSTS headers
  - Use secure session cookies (HTTPOnly, Secure, SameSite)
- ATT&CK: T1557 (Man-in-the-Middle)

**R - Repudiation:**
- Threat: User denies performing actions
- Risk: Low Likelihood (1) × Medium Impact (2) = 2 (Low)
- Mitigation:
  - Log all authentication events with timestamp, IP, user agent
  - Protect log integrity (append-only S3 bucket)
  - Implement log retention for 1 year
- ATT&CK: T1070 (Indicator Removal on Host)

**I - Information Disclosure:**
- Threat: SQL injection exposes user data
- Risk: Medium Likelihood (2) × Critical Impact (4) = 8 (High)
- Mitigation:
  - Use parameterized queries exclusively
  - Implement input validation (allowlist)
  - Run database with least privilege account
  - Implement Web Application Firewall (WAF)
- ATT&CK: T1190 (Exploit Public-Facing Application)

**D - Denial of Service:**
- Threat: Attacker floods login endpoint
- Risk: High Likelihood (3) × Medium Impact (2) = 6 (High)
- Mitigation:
  - Implement rate limiting (per IP and per account)
  - Use CAPTCHA after 3 failed attempts
  - Implement CDN with DDoS protection
  - Set up auto-scaling
- ATT&CK: T1498 (Network Denial of Service)

**E - Elevation of Privilege:**
- Threat: SQL injection bypasses authentication
- Risk: Medium Likelihood (2) × Critical Impact (4) = 8 (High)
- Mitigation:
  - Use ORM or parameterized queries
  - Implement principle of least privilege for database access
  - Separate admin and user authentication paths
  - Implement security testing in CI/CD
- ATT&CK: T1068 (Exploitation for Privilege Escalation)

Example 2: Attack Tree for User Account Compromise

Goal: Compromise User Account
|
+-- [OR] Steal Credentials
|   |
|   +-- [AND] Phishing Attack
|   |   +-- Send phishing email (Easy)
|   |   +-- User clicks malicious link (Medium)
|   |   +-- User enters credentials (Medium)
|   |   → Mitigation: Security awareness training, email filtering, MFA
|   |   → ATT&CK: T1566 (Phishing)
|   |
|   +-- [AND] Password Guessing
|   |   +-- Obtain username (Easy)
|   |   +-- Guess weak password (Medium)
|   |   → Mitigation: Strong password policy, account lockout, rate limiting
|   |   → ATT&CK: T1110 (Brute Force)
|   |
|   +-- [AND] Database Breach
|       +-- SQL injection (Hard)
|       +-- Extract password hashes (Medium)
|       +-- Crack hashes (Hard)
|       → Mitigation: Parameterized queries, strong hashing (bcrypt), WAF
|       → ATT&CK: T1190 (Exploit Public-Facing Application)
|
+-- [OR] Session Hijacking
    |
    +-- [AND] XSS Attack
    |   +-- Find XSS vulnerability (Hard)
    |   +-- Inject JavaScript to steal session cookie (Medium)
    |   → Mitigation: Input validation, output encoding, HTTPOnly cookies, CSP
    |   → ATT&CK: T1185 (Browser Session Hijacking)
    |
    +-- [AND] Session Fixation
        +-- Provide victim with known session ID (Easy)
        +-- Victim authenticates with fixed session (Medium)
        → Mitigation: Regenerate session ID on login, use secure random IDs
        → ATT&CK: T1185 (Browser Session Hijacking)

Example 3: Threat Model Document Template

# Threat Model: [System Name]

## Document Control
- **Version:** 1.0
- **Date:** 2026-02-10
- **Author:** Security Team
- **Status:** Approved
- **Classification:** Internal

## 1. System Overview

### Purpose
[Brief description of system purpose and business value]

### Architecture
[High-level architecture diagram]

### Data Classification
- **Public:** Product catalog
- **Internal:** User activity logs
- **Confidential:** User PII, payment information
- **Restricted:** Encryption keys

## 2. Assumptions and Dependencies

### Assumptions
- Users access system via HTTPS only
- Database is hosted in secure AWS VPC
- All users complete security training annually

### Dependencies
- AWS (infrastructure)
- Stripe (payment processing)
- SendGrid (email delivery)

## 3. Data Flow Diagrams

### Level 0: Context Diagram

[User] --HTTPS--> [Web Application] --TLS--> [Payment Gateway] [Web Application] --TLS--> [Database]

### Level 1: Detailed Flow
[Include detailed DFD with trust boundaries]

## 4. STRIDE Analysis

[For each component, perform STRIDE analysis as shown in Example 1]

## 5. Threat Summary

| ID | Component | Threat | STRIDE | Risk | ATT&CK | Status |
|----|-----------|--------|--------|------|--------|--------|
| T-001 | Login API | Password guessing | S | Critical (9) | T1110 | Mitigated |
| T-002 | Login API | SQL injection | I, E | High (8) | T1190 | Mitigated |
| T-003 | Web App | XSS | I, T | High (6) | T1185 | In Progress |

## 6. Mitigation Plan

| Threat ID | Mitigation | Owner | Due Date | Status |
|-----------|------------|-------|----------|--------|
| T-001 | Implement account lockout | Dev Team | 2026-02-15 | Complete |
| T-002 | Use parameterized queries | Dev Team | 2026-02-20 | Complete |
| T-003 | Implement CSP headers | DevOps | 2026-02-25 | In Progress |

## 7. Residual Risks

[List any accepted risks with executive approval]

## 8. References
- [Secure Development Policy](https://github.com/Hack23/ISMS-PUBLIC/blob/main/Secure_Development_Policy.md)
- [Risk Assessment Methodology](https://github.com/Hack23/ISMS-PUBLIC/blob/main/Risk_Assessment_Methodology.md)

Related ISMS Policies

This skill implements requirements from:

• Threat Modeling Policy - Primary policy for threat analysis
• Secure Development Policy - Security-by-design requirements
• Risk Assessment Methodology - Risk rating and treatment
• Information Security Policy - Overall security framework

Related Documentation

• SECURITY_ARCHITECTURE.md - Security architecture patterns
• THREAT_MODEL.md - System threat models
• Risk Register - Identified risks and treatments

Compliance Mapping

ISO 27001:2022

• A.5.7 Threat intelligence
• A.8.9 Configuration management
• A.8.25 Secure development life cycle
• A.8.28 Secure coding

NIST Cybersecurity Framework 2.0

• ID.RA-1: Asset vulnerabilities are identified and documented
• ID.RA-3: Threats, both internal and external, are identified and documented
• PR.DS-5: Protections against data leaks are implemented

CIS Controls v8.1

• Control 18: Penetration Testing
  • 18.3 Perform Periodic Red Team Exercises
  • 18.4 Conduct Periodic Purple Team Exercises

Enforcement

Threat modeling compliance is verified through:

• Architecture reviews: All new systems must have approved threat model before development
• Security gate: Threat model must be updated before production deployment
• Quarterly audits: Random sampling of systems to verify threat models exist and are current
• Metrics: Track percentage of systems with current threat models (target: 100%)