stock-researcher

name	stock-researcher
subcommand	stage
description	Module 2: Weinstein stage classification and 0-100 fundamental scoring for all holdings. Use when the user says "/stock-researcher:stage", "stage analysis", "stock stages", "earnings analysis", "which stocks to trim", "fundamental scoring", or "rebalancing". Writes stage/concall fields to JSON.

Module 2 — Stage & Earnings Analysis

MCP Tools used

• mcp__kite__get_holdings
• mcp__kite__get_historical_data

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Stage Framework — Weinstein Stages

Compute MAs from daily candle close values:

MA	Lookback	Role
50 MA	last 50 closes	Short-term trend
150 MA	last 150 closes	Medium-term trend
200 MA	last 200 closes	Stage divider
200 MA slope	(200MA today) − (200MA 30 days ago)	Rising vs falling

Stage Rules

Condition	Stage
close_today > ma50 > ma150 > ma200 AND slope200 > 0	Stage 2 ✅
— ma50 rose above ma200 within last 20 candles	→ Stage 2A (fresh breakout)
— all 3 MAs aligned 20+ candles consistently	→ Stage 2B (established)
abs(pct_above_200ma) < 5 AND slope flat	Stage 1 🔵 (basing)
Price crossing ma200 repeatedly, slope flattening	Stage 3 ⚠️ (topping)
close_today < ma50 < ma150 < ma200 AND slope200 < 0	Stage 4 🔴 (downtrend)
< 50 trading days data	INSUFFICIENT DATA

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Step 1 — Holdings (from Step 0)

Use data from mcp__kite__get_holdings() already called in SKILL.md Step 0.

Step 2 — Fetch candles + WebSearches (parallel)

If Module 1 already ran, reuse its candle data. Otherwise fetch all stocks in one parallel batch:

mcp__kite__get_historical_data(instrument_token=<token>, from_date="<today-365d> 00:00:00", to_date="<today> 23:59:59", interval="day")

Fire all earnings + concall WebSearches simultaneously:

WebSearch("<STOCK_NAME> quarterly results revenue profit concall Q4 FY26 OR Q3 FY26 management guidance site:screener.in OR site:trendlyne.com OR site:moneycontrol.com")

Trusted sources only: screener.in, trendlyne.com, tickertape.in, moneycontrol.com, economictimes.indiatimes.com, businessstandard.com, bseindia.com, nseindia.com

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Step 3 — Concall AI Summary (13-section card per stock)

For each stock, produce:

1. Company Overview (8-10 bullets: business, revenue model, moat)
2. One-Line Summary (single most important investor takeaway)
3. Guidance & Outlook (8-10 points with specific numbers)
4. Strategic Updates (8-10 points: acquisitions, capex, new products)
5. Earnings Triggers (8-10 re-rating catalysts)
6. Risks (8-10 using management's own words where possible)
7. Key Q&A (8-10 most revealing analyst exchanges)
8. Management Consistency (compare last 3 calls: promise vs actual)
9. Investor Verdict (3-5 sentences: tone, guidance credibility, trust)

Management credibility rating: ⭐ to ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ based on guidance delivery track record.

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Step 4 — Risk Flags Per Stock

Risk Type	Flag when
Valuation	PE > 50x
Concentration	Weight > 15%
Stage	Stage 3 or 4
SME / Liquidity	Symbol ends with -SM
Earnings momentum	2+ quarters declining PAT growth
Debt	D/E > 1 (non-financials)
Near 52W high	Within 5% — resistance zone
Near 52W low	Within 10% — structural weakness

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Step 5 — Fundamental Scoring (0–100)

A. Earnings Growth (0–10)

4Q all accelerating→10 | 3of4 growing→8 | 2of4→5 | flat→3 | declining 2+Q→1 | declining 3+Q→0

B. Management Credibility (0–10)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐→10 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐→8 | ⭐⭐⭐→5 | ⭐⭐→2 | ⭐→0 | no data→4

C. Moat (0–10)

Strong (pricing power + switching costs + gaining share)→9-10 | Moderate→5-8 | Weak→1-4 | None→0

D. Balance Sheet (0–10)

D/E<0.3 + FCF+ + ROE>20%→10 | D/E<0.5 + FCF+→8 | D/E<1 + FCF+→6 | D/E<1 FCF-→4 | D/E>1→2 | D/E>2→0

E. Sector Tailwind (0–10)

Strong govt policy + growing market→9-10 | Moderate→6-8 | Neutral→4-5 | Headwind→1-3 | Structural decline→0

F. Competitive Position (0–10)

Gaining share + pricing power→9-10 | Stable→6-8 | Slightly losing→3-5 | Losing + margin squeeze→1-2 | Disrupted→0

G. Valuation vs History (0–10)

40% below 3Y avg + below peers→9-10 | At/below avg→7-8 | 0-20% above→5-6 | 20-40% above→3-4 | >40% above→0-2 | no data→5

H. Technical Stage (0–30) — FIXED by stage computation

Stage 2B→30 | Stage 2A→25 | Stage 1→15 | Stage 3→8 | Stage 4→0 | Insufficient→15

Total Score → Action

Score	Action
85–100	STRONG ADD
70–84	ADD
55–69	STRONG HOLD
40–54	HOLD
30–39	WATCH
15–29	TRIM
0–14	EXIT

Overrides:

• TRACKING (weight ≤ 0.2%): never EXIT on size alone
• SME (-SM): cap at TRIM regardless of score
• Score 40-54 + Stage 4 + D/E>1 → downgrade to WATCH minimum
• Score 70+ + Stage 4 → ADD/STRONG HOLD with "await Stage 1/2A base" note

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Step 6 — Stock Card Output (per holding)

[SYMBOL] | Stage X | Weight X.X% | Score X/100 → ACTION
Price ₹X,XXX | Avg Buy ₹X,XXX | P&L +X.X%
Business Quality [A+B+C+D]/40 | Macro/Micro [E+F+G]/30 | Stage [H]/30
[Concall AI summary — 13 sections]
[Risk flags]

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Step 7 — Stage Summary Table + Rebalancing Priority List

Stage summary footer: Stage 1: XX% 🔵 | Stage 2: XX% ✅ | Stage 3: XX% ⚠️ | Stage 4: XX% 🔴

Priority list driven by score:

• EXIT/TRIM (score <30)
• WATCH/REDUCE (score 30-54)
• HOLD/STRONG HOLD (score 55-69)
• STRONG ADD (score 70+) — deploy capital freed from exits here

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Step 8 — Write JSON Output

Write or merge into ~/.portfolio/data/portfolio-<YYYY-MM-DD>.json. Token budget: ≤ 2,000 tokens. Atomic write (.tmp → rename).

Populate: meta.modules_run, portfolio.stage*_pct, portfolio.avg_mgmt_stars, portfolio.top_priority_actions, holdings[].technical, holdings[].fundamental_score, holdings[].earnings, holdings[].risk_flags, holdings[].concall, holdings[].action

Schema: ../../docs/portfolio-data-schema.md

After writing, open report:

open "$(dirname "$0")/../../../../report/report.html" 2>/dev/null \
  || echo "Report at ~/.portfolio/data/latest.json — open report/report.html"

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Notes

• Fundamentals drive action, technicals drive timing. Stage 4 + score≥55 = WATCH (not EXIT).
• 52W high proximity is NOT a sell signal if earnings accelerating and score ≥70.
• SME stocks: factor in impact cost. Cap action at TRIM even with low score.
• If fundamental data unavailable: conservative defaults — Earnings=3, Mgmt=4, Moat=4, BS=5, Sector=4, Competitive=4, Valuation=5.