decide

name	decide
description	Decision Memo + Contrarian Check. Runs an interview, structures the options with explicit assumptions, dispatches a contrarian pass to find holes and second-order effects, and produces a saved decision memo with a clear recommendation and reversibility rating.
disable-model-invocation	true
argument-hint	[short description of the decision]

/decide — Decision Memo + Contrarian Check

Help the user make better, faster decisions on consequential, hard-to-reverse, or multi-stakeholder choices by structuring their thinking, red-teaming their logic, and producing a saved memo they can revisit.

Three subagent passes, each a distinct cognitive job:

Pass	Purpose
Structurer	Organize the interview into a clean draft memo.
Contrarian	Red-team the logic; surface hidden assumptions and second-order effects.
Synthesizer	Weigh structure vs. contrarian pass; recommend; rate reversibility.

The interview happens in the main session. Subagents only enter for the heavy thinking.

Step 1 — Run the interview

Ask one question at a time. Do not batch. Wait for the answer before moving on. Ask in this order:

1. What's the decision? — In one sentence.
2. What are the options? — List them. If only one, ask "What are the alternatives, including doing nothing?"
3. Can any option avoid the central trade-off? — Look for a smaller, staged, combined, or otherwise lateral option rather than accepting the initial framing.
4. Why now? — Why decide today/this week/this month? What changes if you wait?
5. What's the decision window? — Deadline, opportunity cost, or a soft "off my plate by Friday."
6. What's the decision unmade? — Default outcome if no action is taken.
7. What does each option cost? — Money, time, focus, reputation, optionality. Per-option, briefly.
8. What's the upside of each option? — What goes well if it works.
9. What's the downside? — Per option, the worst plausible outcome you'd have to live with.
10. What must be true for option X to be the right call? — Repeat for each serious option. Surfaces the assumptions.
11. Which of those beliefs are you least sure about? — The weakest link.
12. Who else has a stake? — Co-founder, team, investors, customers, family. Whose buy-in matters, and what enthusiasm, resistance, or anxiety have they actually expressed? Do not infer sentiment they have not communicated.
13. What's reversible vs. one-way? — Is this a hat or a tattoo?
14. What would make you change your mind? — Kill criteria.
15. Gut call right now? — Force a tentative answer before the analysis. Recorded so the user can later check whether the analysis moved them or just rationalized the gut call.

If the user gives a thin answer ("I dunno"), push once: "Take a guess — what's the closest thing you do believe?" Move on if they still won't bite, but flag the gap in the memo.

If the user volunteers extra detail mid-question, capture it but stay on the ordered list. Don't let the interview wander.

Step 2 — Spawn the Structurer subagent

After the interview, summarise the captured answers and spawn the Structurer. Its instructions must include:

• The full interview transcript (questions and answers).
• The decision slug (e.g., hire-vp-eng, kill-feature-x).
• Produce a draft memo using the Output template below — Context, Evidence ledger, Options, Assumptions per option, Costs, Upside, Downside, Reversibility, Stakeholders, Gut call, Kill criteria.
• Classify each decision-relevant claim as Verified fact, User belief, Assumption, or Unknown. Do not upgrade a belief or assumption to fact.
• "Do not recommend. Do not editorialize. Just structure."
• "If an answer is missing or thin, write _(unanswered)_ rather than inventing content."
• "Return the draft memo as Markdown."

Before advancing, verify the draft accounts for every interview answer, marks missing answers _(unanswered)_, classifies every decision-relevant claim, and covers every serious option. Return omissions to the Structurer for correction.

Step 3 — Spawn the Contrarian subagent

Pass the Structurer's draft to the Contrarian, instructed to red-team it. Its instructions must include:

• The full draft memo.
• Role framing: "You are a contrarian advisor. Your job is to find what's wrong, not to validate. Default to skepticism."
• Required output sections:
  • Hidden assumptions — beliefs the user treats as fact.
  • Second-order effects — what happens 6–18 months out that the user hasn't priced in.
  • Selection bias — options excluded too quickly, or framed in a way that prejudged the answer.
  • Sunk cost / momentum bias — choices driven by past investment rather than future expected value.
  • Reversibility check — decisions labelled reversible that aren't, or vice versa.
  • Steel-manned options — the strongest success case for every serious option, including the option the user is leaning away from.
• "Be specific. 'You haven't thought about competitors' is useless. 'If competitor X mirrors this in 3 months, your moat is gone' is useful."
• "Return findings as Markdown, organized under the sections above."

Before advancing, verify the critique covers every required section and steel-mans every serious option. Return omissions to the Contrarian for correction.

Step 4 — Spawn the Synthesizer subagent

Pass both the Structurer draft and the Contrarian critique to the Synthesizer to produce the final memo. Its instructions must include:

• The Structurer's draft memo.
• The Contrarian's findings.
• "Produce the final memo in the Output format below. You must recommend a single option. 'It depends' is not a recommendation. If you genuinely cannot recommend, the recommendation is 'gather more information' and you must specify the smallest evidence-gathering step and the critical unknowns it resolves."
• "Preserve the evidence classification from the draft. Mark every claim from the Contrarian as _(contrarian)_. Don't blend sources silently."
• "Compare the recommendation to the user's gut call. If they agree, say so. If they disagree, say so loudly and explain why the analysis diverged from the gut."
• "Return the final memo as Markdown using the Output template."

Before saving, verify the memo contains every required section, preserves claim classifications, makes one recommendation, accounts for every serious option, and states the smallest evidence-gathering step when information is insufficient. It must be understandable six months later without the interview transcript. Return omissions to the Synthesizer for correction.

Step 5 — Save the memo

Write the Synthesizer's output to:

docs/decisions/YYYY-MM-DD-<decision-slug>.md

Create docs/decisions/ if it doesn't exist. The slug is a kebab-case version of the decision (e.g., hire-vp-eng, kill-pricing-tier-b).

Then present the memo and ask:

What now?

1. Lock it in — I'll mark this decided and note the kill criteria.
2. Revisit later — I'll mark it for revisit on a date you choose.
3. Push back — identify the disputed input or reasoning and rerun from there.
4. Something else.

Apply the selected mutation:

• Lock it in — set Status to Decided and append ## Decided with the option and date. Keep the existing kill-criteria checklist authoritative.
• Revisit later — ask for the revisit date, set Status to Revisit, and add Revisit date to the metadata list. Do not promise to schedule or initiate the revisit.
• Push back — amend the disputed input or instructions, then rerun from the earliest affected pass: Structurer for source inputs, Contrarian for critique, or Synthesizer for weighting and recommendation.

Output template

The final memo (produced by the Synthesizer) must follow this structure:

# Decision: {one-line decision}

- **Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
- **Status:** Draft | Decided | Revisit
- **Decision window:** {deadline or "soft"}
- **Reversibility:** Reversible | One-way door | Mostly reversible

## Context

{2–4 sentences. Why this decision, why now.}

## Evidence ledger

| Claim | Status | Source or verification needed |
| ----- | ------ | ----------------------------- |
| ...   | Verified fact / User belief / Assumption / Unknown | ... |

## Options

### Option A — {name}

- **What it is:** ...
- **Cost:** ...
- **Upside:** ...
- **Downside:** ...
- **Must be true for this to work:**
  - ...
  - ...
- **Weakest assumption:** ...

### Option B — {name}

{same structure}

### Option C — Do nothing / status quo

{same structure}

## Stakeholders

| Who | Stake | Buy-in needed? | Expressed sentiment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ... | ... | Yes / No | Enthusiasm / resistance / anxiety / unknown |

## Contrarian pass

- **Hidden assumptions:** ...
- **Second-order effects:** ...
- **Selection bias:** ...
- **Sunk cost / momentum:** ...
- **Reversibility check:** ...
- **Steel-manned options:** ...









{2–4 sentences explaining why this option, what trade-off the user is accepting,
and whether the analysis matches or contradicts the gut call.}



If any of these become true, abandon or revisit:

 [ ] ...
 [ ] ...



{Anything still unanswered. Use  markers from the draft.}