polymarket-sports-edge

name	polymarket-sports-edge
description	Find odds divergence between sportsbook consensus and Polymarket sports markets, then trade the gap.
metadata	{"author":"jim.sexton","version":"1.0.0","displayName":"Polymarket Sports Edge","difficulty":"intermediate"}

Polymarket Sports Edge

This is a template. The default signal compares sportsbook consensus odds against Polymarket prices and trades when divergence exceeds a threshold. Remix it — adjust the sports, threshold, sizing, or add your own filters (e.g., only trade NBA, require minimum volume, weight by recency).

What It Does

Scans active Polymarket sports markets and compares prices against the sportsbook consensus from The Odds API. When a market is mispriced relative to sharp bookmaker lines, it buys the underpriced side.

The edge: Sportsbook lines are set by professional oddsmakers with billions in handle — they're extremely well-calibrated. Polymarket sports markets are thinner and less efficient. When they disagree, the books are usually right.

How It Works

1. Fetch active sports markets from Simmer (GET /api/sdk/markets?q=<sport>)
2. Fetch current odds from The Odds API for the same sports
3. Match markets to games by comparing team names and dates
4. Calculate implied probability from the sportsbook consensus (average across all bookmakers)
5. Compare against the Polymarket price — if divergence exceeds the threshold, trade
6. Buy the underpriced side with reasoning logged

Setup

Environment Variables

Variable	Required	Description
SIMMER_API_KEY	Yes	Your Simmer API key
THE_ODDS_API_KEY	Yes	Free key from the-odds-api.com (500 req/month free)
MIN_DIVERGENCE	No	Minimum probability gap to trade (default: 0.08 = 8%)
TRADE_AMOUNT	No	Amount per trade in venue currency (default: 10.0)
SPORTS	No	Comma-separated Odds API sport keys (default: NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, MMA, EPL, MLS)
LIVE	No	Set to true for real trades. Default is dry-run.

Get a Free Odds API Key

1. Go to the-odds-api.com
2. Sign up for the free tier (500 requests/month)
3. Copy your API key
4. Set it: export THE_ODDS_API_KEY=your_key_here

Running

# Dry run (default) — logs what it would trade
python sports_edge.py

# Live trading
LIVE=true python sports_edge.py

Example Output

[Sports Edge] Scanning 3 sports...
[Sports Edge] NBA: Found 6 games with odds
[Sports Edge] Matched: "Will the Celtics win vs Pacers?" → Celtics vs Pacers (2026-03-05)
[Sports Edge] Polymarket YES: 0.58 | Sportsbook consensus: 0.69 | Divergence: +0.11
[Sports Edge] TRADE: Buying YES at 0.58 (edge: 11%) — 10.00 $SIM
[Sports Edge] NHL: Found 4 games with odds
[Sports Edge] No divergence above threshold.
[Sports Edge] Done. 1 trade executed, 0 skipped.