china-model-update

name	china-model-update
description	Update A-share financial models with new quarterly data, management guidance, or macro changes. Reflects actuals, rolls estimates forward, flags material changes, and updates valuation. Adapted from the original model-update skill for Chinese market conventions and AkShare data. Triggers on "A股模型更新", "模型更新", "plug earnings into model", "update model for [company]", "刷新预测", or "更新财务模型".

china-model-update

Purpose

Update existing A股财务模型 with new data, ensuring all cells are traceable to sources and all changes are documented.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → Q[X] actual results
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → BS update
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → CF update
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → Full year update
get_quote(ticker)                               → Current market data
get_stock_info(ticker)                          → Any company changes

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮资讯 — official filings for exact figures
• 业绩说明会 transcript — management commentary
• 管理层指引 — guidance from earnings calls
• Wind / Choice / 同花顺 — consensus updates

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

Change triggers:

• Quarterly earnings release (季报/年报)
• Management guidance update (管理层指引调整)
• Macro assumption change (rate, tax, policy)
• Model error or refinement
• M&A or restructuring event

Change log template:

Date	Change Type	Item	Old Value	New Value	Reason
	Earnings update	Revenue FY25E	XX亿	XX亿	Q1 actuals beat
	Guidance	Tax rate	25%	25%	No change
	Macro	CapEx %	5%	6%	New plant announced

Step 2: Update Historical Actuals

Quarterly actuals:

[Company] Q[X] 20XX Actuals (from AkShare / 巨潮):
- 营业收入: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- 毛利率: XX% (vs prior: XX%)
- 归母净利润: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- EPS: X.XX元
- 经营现金流: XXX亿

Update sequence:

1. Drop Q[X] actuals into historical columns
2. Verify sum checks (quarterly sum = annual)
3. Update LTM (Last Twelve Months) calculations
4. Check annual-to-quarter relationships

Step 3: Roll Forward Estimates

Revenue projections:

• Update growth rates based on Q[X] performance
• Consider:
  • Order backlog changes
  • New product ramp
  • Market share gains/losses
  • Capacity expansion

Margin projections:

• Update gross margin based on actual trend
• Update opex ratios based on actual leverage
• Flag structural changes (input costs, pricing power)

Balance sheet projections:

• Update working capital assumptions
• Update debt schedule if refinancing occurred
• Update CapEx plans

Step 4: Update Valuation

Market data refresh:

get_quote(ticker)  # Current price, PE, PB

Valuation metrics to update:

• Current stock price and change
• Trading multiple (PE, PB, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA)
• 52-week range position
• Relative to sector median
• Implied growth vs historical

DCF updates (if applicable):

• Roll forward projections by one year
• Update market data inputs (beta, risk-free rate, shares)
• Update terminal growth if outlook changed

Step 5: Flag Material Changes

Change significance assessment:

Change	Threshold	Action
Revenue estimate	±5%	Update model, note driver
Net income estimate	±10%	Update model, revise target price
Margin estimate	±100 bps	Update model, assess sustainability
CapEx estimate	±20%	Update model, check FCF impact
Multiple assumption	±1x	Sensitivity check, document rationale

Red flags to highlight:

• Revenue growth deceleration >500 bps
• Margin compression >300 bps
• Working capital deterioration
• Debt increase >20% vs prior forecast
• Management guidance lower than consensus

Step 6: Document Changes

Model update memo:

[公司名称]（[代码]）模型更新 [Date]

一、更新内容
   [Bullet list of changes made]

二、关键变动
   Revenue FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Net Income FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Driver: [Explanation]

三、估值影响
   新目标价: ¥XX.XX (之前 ¥XX.XX)
   调整幅度: +X% / -X%
   调整逻辑: [Brief rationale]

四、后续关注
   - [Next catalyst]
   - [Key metric to monitor]
   - [Risk factor]

Step 7: QC Checklist

Before finalizing:

• All Q[X] actuals sourced from 巨潮 PDF or AkShare
• Historical data matches reported figures exactly
• All formulas intact (no broken references)
• LTM calculations updated
• Forward estimates reflect new information
• Valuation inputs refreshed (price, shares, multiples)
• Target price recalculated
• Change log complete
• Cell comments added for new inputs
• Model balances correctly

China-Specific Update Considerations

Earnings Season Timing

Report	Deadline	Typical Release Window
Q1季报	Apr 30	Apr 1-30
中报	Aug 31	Aug 1-31
Q3季报	Oct 31	Oct 1-31
年报	Apr 30	Jan-Apr

Model update priority:

• Annual report: Complete overhaul of historicals
• Semi-annual: Major update, adjust full-year estimates
• Quarterly: Incremental update, verify full-year trajectory

业绩预告 Integration

If company issued 业绩预告:

• Use as directional signal before formal report
• Adjust estimates if variance >20% from prior
• Flag for detailed update when formal report arrives

Consensus Management

• Update consensus assumptions based on new information
• If company guidance differs from consensus, flag divergence
• Note if management commentary suggests estimate revision

Regulatory Changes

Monitor for:

• Tax rate changes (高新技术企业 reclassification)
• Accounting standard updates
• Industry-specific regulation impacts on assumptions
• Dividend policy changes (影响 DCF terminal value)

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• All new actuals traceable to source
• Formulas verified (no hardcodes in calculations)
• Estimates logically consistent with new data
• Valuation update reflects current market conditions
• Changes documented in update memo
• Model passes basic QC (balance checks, sum checks)

Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.

• ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailable
• ifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShare
• akshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only