| name | china-thesis-tracker |
| description | Maintain and update investment theses for A-share portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, milestones, and thesis validity over time. Adapted from the original thesis-tracker skill for Chinese market conventions. Triggers on "A股持仓逻辑跟踪", "投资逻辑更新", "thesis check China", "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", or "A股持仓复盘". |
china-thesis-tracker
Purpose
Track and maintain A股投资逻辑/thesis for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.
Data Sources
Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)
get_quote(ticker) → Current price, valuation
get_historical_data(ticker) → Price trajectory
get_financials(ticker, "income") → Financial performance
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}") → News affecting thesis
get_industry_stocks(industry="...") → Peer context
Secondary Sources
- 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
- 业绩说明会 — management commentary
- 券商研报 — analyst updates
- Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data
Workflow
Step 1: Define / Load Thesis
Thesis statement template:
公司：[Company]（[Ticker]）
行业：[Industry]
方向：[Long / Short / Watch]
核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]
目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
时间 horizon：[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
置信度：[High / Medium / Low]
Thesis components:
| Component | Description | Example |
|---|
| 核心逻辑 (Core thesis) | Why will the stock move? | 批价上行驱动盈利超预期 |
| 关键假设 (Key assumptions) | What must be true? | 批价 >1000元, 动销增速 >15% |
| 催化剂 (Catalysts) | What triggers re-rating? | Q1业绩, 批价数据, 政策变化 |
| 风险因素 (Risks) | What could break the thesis? | 批价下行, 竞品放量, 政策风险 |
| 目标价 (Target) | Fair value estimate | ¥2000 (基于25x PE) |
| 止损位 (Stop loss) | Downside risk limit | ¥1500 (对应20x PE) |
Step 2: Track Key Data Points
Company-specific KPIs:
| KPI | Frequency | Source | Trend |
|---|
| e.g., 批价 | Weekly | 渠道调研, 新闻 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
| e.g., 动销增速 | Monthly | 经销商反馈 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
| e.g., 产能利用率 | Quarterly | 年报/中报 | ↑ / → / ↓ |
Financial metrics to track:
| Metric | Last Reported | Trend | Thesis Impact |
|---|
| Revenue growth | | | |
| Gross margin | | | |
| Net margin | | | |
| ROE | | | |
| Net debt/EBITDA | | | |
Market metrics:
| Metric | Current | 52W High | 52W Low | Thesis Relevance |
|---|
| Stock price | | | | |
| Market cap | | | | |
| PE (TTM) | | | | |
| PB | | | | |
| YTD return | | | | |
Step 3: Monitor Catalysts
Catalyst checklist:
| Catalyst | Expected Date | Status | Outcome | Thesis Impact |
|---|
| Q1 季报 | Apr 25 | Pending | | |
| 批价数据 | Weekly | Ongoing | 稳定在980元 | Positive |
| 股东大会 | May 15 | Scheduled | | |
Catalyst outcome assessment:
- Confirming: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
- Neutral: Result as expected → maintain position
- Breaking: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position
Step 4: Thesis Validity Check
Regular review questions:
-
Has the thesis changed?
- Core drivers still intact?
- New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?
-
Are assumptions still valid?
- Key assumptions: still on track?
- Any material change to underlying business?
-
Is the timing right?
- Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
- Market pricing in the thesis?
-
Is the risk/reward still favorable?
- Upside/downside ratio updated?
- Entry price still reasonable?
-
Should thesis be adjusted?
- Target price update
- Risk factors added/removed
- Time horizon extended/contracted
Step 5: Thesis Status
Status categories:
| Status | Definition | Action |
|---|
| Intact (逻辑 intact) | All assumptions hold, catalysts on track | Maintain / add on weakness |
| Under pressure (承压) | Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken | Monitor closely, define exit criteria |
| Broken (逻辑破) | Core thesis invalidated | Exit position, document lessons |
| Evolving (演进中) | Thesis needs update based on new info | Update thesis statement, re-evaluate |
Step 6: Update Documentation
Thesis update log:
[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]
一、当前状态：[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]
二、本期间重要变化：
- [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
- [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]
三、数据追踪：
[Key metrics updated]
四、催化剂进展：
[Catalyst status update]
五、决策：
- [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
- [Rationale]
六、后续关注：
- [Next check-in date]
- [Key metrics to watch]
Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review
Aggregate view:
| Position | Thesis Status | Conviction | Days Held | P&L | Next Catalyst | Action |
|---|
| | | | | | |
Portfolio-level insights:
- Which theses are working? Common factors?
- Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
- Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
- Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)
China-Specific Thesis Considerations
Common A-share Thesis Types
| Thesis Type | Description | Key Metrics |
|---|
| 批价上行 | Liquor sector price appreciation | 批价, 库存, 动销 |
| 国产替代 | Import substitution | 市场份额, 认证进展 |
| 产能出清 | Industry capacity rationalization | 产能利用率, 价格 |
| 政策利好 | Policy tailwind | 政策落地, 补贴 |
| 困境反转 | Distressed turnaround | 债务重组, 新管理层 |
| 行业整合 | M&A consolidation | 集中度, 并购活动 |
| 技术突破 | Technology breakthrough | 专利, 订单 |
| 消费升级 | Premiumization | ASP, 产品结构 |
A-share Market Risks to Track
| Risk Type | Indicator | Mitigation |
|---|
| 政策风险 (Policy) | Regulatory announcements | Diversify across sectors |
| 系统性风险 (Systemic) | 上证指数 drawdown | Hedging, cash position |
| 流动性风险 (Liquidity) | Margin balances, turnover | Avoid illiquid names |
| 解禁风险 (Lock-up) | Unlocking calendar | Avoid near-term unlocks |
| 质押风险 (Pledging) | Shareholder pledge ratio | Check F10 data |
| 商誉风险 (Goodwill) | Goodwill/equity ratio | Flag high goodwill names |
Typical A-share Thesis Lifecycle
Week 1-2: Initial idea, data gathering
Week 3-4: Thesis formation, model build
Week 5-8: Position establishment, catalyst tracking
Week 9-16: Thesis validation / adjustment
Week 17+: Outcome assessment, exit decision
Quality Checks
Before delivering thesis update:
Data Source Mode Switch: Set env var IFIND_DATA_SOURCE_MODE to control data source preference.
ifind-only (strict): Use iFind only, error if unavailableifind-fallback (default): iFind preferred, fallback to AkShareakshare-only: Skip iFind, use AkShare only
