longbridge-tech-hype

name	longbridge-tech-hype
description	Tech hype vs. fundamentals analysis via Longbridge — identifies valuation bubbles and fundamental disconnects in A-share / HK tech stocks. Compares PE / PS / EV-EBITDA historical percentile against actual revenue / profit growth. Analyses which AI / EV / semiconductor theme plays have fundamental support vs. pure sentiment-driven momentum. Triggers: "科技炒作", "AI泡沫", "估值泡沫", "科技估值", "概念股", "主题炒作", "基本面背离", "炒作识别", "科技泡沫", "科技炒作", "AI泡沫", "估值泡沫", "科技估值", "概念股", "主題炒作", "基本面背離", "tech hype", "AI bubble", "valuation bubble", "tech valuation", "theme stocks", "hype vs fundamentals", "concept stocks", "narrative vs reality", "AI concept", "semiconductor bubble".
license	MIT
metadata	{"author":"longbridge","version":"1.0.0","risk_level":"read_only","requires_login":false,"default_install":true,"requires_mcp":false,"tier":"read"}

longbridge-tech-hype

Tech hype versus fundamentals — detect valuation bubbles and identify which theme-driven rallies have fundamental backing.

Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.

When to use

Trigger on prompts asking for:

• Bubble or hype detection — "这只 AI 概念股是不是泡沫", "AI bubble check", "估值泡沫"
• Theme vs. fundamentals — "主题炒作还是有基本面", "hype vs fundamentals", "narrative vs reality"
• Tech sector valuation check — "科技股估值贵不贵", "半导体概念股", "新能源估值"

For pure valuation percentile defer to longbridge-valuation. For sector-wide ranking defer to longbridge-constituent.

Workflow

1. Extract and normalise the symbol(s).
2. Fetch in parallel:
   • Valuation multiples and historical percentile (PE, PS, EV/EBITDA)
   • Industry median valuation for peer context
   • Last 2–3 years income statement (revenue growth, net income growth, gross margin trend)
   • Recent news and narrative themes
3. Compute the Hype Score:
   • Valuation percentile (0–100) vs. revenue growth rate
   • Gap = valuation_percentile − revenue_growth_rank (positive = hype-heavy)
4. Classify the stock:
   • Fundamentally Justified — growth supports valuation
   • Partially Justified — moderate gap, watch closely
   • Hype-Driven — large gap, sentiment outpacing fundamentals
   • Detached Bubble — extreme valuation with decelerating growth
5. Summarise key narrative themes from news and flag whether each has financial backing.

If unsure of exact flag names, run longbridge <subcommand> --help before proceeding.

CLI

# Valuation multiples and historical percentile
longbridge valuation <SYMBOL> --format json

# Industry median valuation
longbridge industry-valuation <SYMBOL> --format json

# Income statement — revenue, net income, margins
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --format json

# Recent news — theme keywords
longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json

Output structure

TECH HYPE ANALYSIS — <SYMBOL>  <Date>

VERDICT: [Fundamentally Justified | Partially Justified | Hype-Driven | Detached Bubble]
Hype Score: xx/100  (higher = more hype-heavy)

VALUATION SNAPSHOT
PE:  xx.x×  (xx-th percentile, 3Y)   Industry median: xx.x×
PS:  x.x×   (xx-th percentile, 3Y)
EV/EBITDA: xx.x×  (xx-th percentile, 3Y)

FUNDAMENTAL CHECK
Revenue Growth (YoY):  +xx%  →  +xx%  →  +xx%
Net Income Growth:     +xx%  →  +xx%  →  +xx%
Gross Margin:          xx%   →  xx%   →  xx%

NARRATIVE THEMES (from news)
Theme               Has Backing?   Evidence
AI / LLM            ✓ Partial      Revenue up xx%, but margin flat
Semiconductor cycle ✗ No data      Mostly sentiment-driven
...

CONCLUSION
<2–3 sentence synthesis of hype vs. fundamental alignment>

Error handling

Situation	简体回复	繁體回復	English reply
Symbol not found	未找到该代码，请确认市场和格式。	找不到該代碼，請確認市場和格式。	Symbol not found — verify exchange and ticker.
Valuation history unavailable	历史估值分位数据不足，结果仅供参考。	歷史估值分位數據不足，結果僅供參考。	Insufficient valuation history — results are approximate.
command not found: longbridge	请安装 longbridge-terminal 或通过 MCP 连接。	請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或透過 MCP 連線。	Install longbridge-terminal or connect via MCP.
not logged in	请运行 longbridge auth login。	請執行 longbridge auth login。	Run longbridge auth login.

MCP fallback

When the CLI is unavailable, fall back to the MCP server. Discover available tools from the MCP server's tool list at runtime.

Related skills

• longbridge-valuation — valuation percentile and industry comparison
• longbridge-fundamental — deep financial KPI analysis
• longbridge-news — news and sentiment signals
• longbridge-peer-comparison — cross-symbol valuation matrix

File layout

skills/longbridge-tech-hype/
└── SKILL.md