market-context

name	market-context
type	workflow
family	workflow
rigor	full
description	Use when validating market timing, structural forces, or distribution moats before committing strategic resources—focuses on macro context, not individual competitor teardowns.
keywords	market-research, strategy, competitive-landscape, go-to-market, positioning, dynamics, timing, structural-forces, distribution-moats, aggregation-theory
compatibility	Claude Code and compatible agent products
requires	["problem-framing"]
enhances	["strategy-clarity","competitive-analysis","business-case"]
sources_pdf	["Zero to One (Thiel)","High Growth Handbook (Gil)","Playing to Win (Lafley)"]
sources_web	["Stratechery: Aggregation Theory","Stratechery: The Great Unbundling","Stratechery: Smiling Curve"]

Overview

Market context is the forensic analysis of structural forces—timing, distribution moats, and demand aggregation—that determine whether a product can capture long-term value. This skill prevents "Strategy Blindness" by forcing an audit of the "Where to Play" domains before any resources are allocated.

Iron Law

NO STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT VALIDATED MARKET CONTEXT

Assumed market dynamics are the primary cause of high-growth failures. Every claim must be validated against current structural shifts (e.g., Aggregation Theory or Unbundling).

State Machine

digraph market_context_flow {
    "Start" [shape=doublecircle];
    "Step 1: Structural Audit" [shape=box];
    "Step 2: 0-to-1 Timing Check" [shape=diamond];
    "Step 3: Distribution Audit" [shape=box];
    "Step 4: Context Validation" [shape=diamond];
    "Done" [shape=doublecircle];

    "Start" -> "Step 1: Structural Audit";
    "Step 1: Structural Audit" -> "Step 2: 0-to-1 Timing Check";
    "Step 2: 0-to-1 Timing Check" -> "Step 3: Distribution Audit" [label="timing right"];
    "Step 2: 0-to-1 Timing Check" -> "Step 1: Structural Audit" [label="too early/late"];
    "Step 3: Distribution Audit" -> "Step 4: Context Validation";
    "Step 4: Context Validation" -> "Done" [label="context validated"];
    "Step 4: Context Validation" -> "Step 1: Structural Audit" [label="gaps in logic"];
}

When to Use This Skill

• When drafting a "Winning Aspiration" for a new category.
• When an existing market is being "unbundled" by modular competitors.
• When evaluating a high-growth "Scaling Signal" or inflection point.
• Before committing to a specific "Where to Play" geography or segment.

When NOT to Use This Skill

• For narrow internal operational improvements.
• For pure 1-to-n incremental feature releases within a stable context.

Core Process

Step 1: Perform the Structural Audit

Evaluate if the industry is structurally attractive. (Source: Lafley, Playing to Win, Ch. 3)

1. Analyze Five Forces: Are barriers to entry high? Is supplier/buyer power concentrated?
2. Identify Value Migration: Is value moving to the ends of the "Smiling Curve" (Creation/Customer) or toward the center (Manufacturing)? (Source: Stratechery)
3. Map the Aggregation Dynamic: Is the market shifting from supply control to demand aggregation? (Source: Stratechery, "Aggregation Theory")

Step 2: The Seven Questions Test

Validate the context against Thiel's fundamental laws. (Source: Thiel, Zero to One, Ch. 13)

1. Can we create 10x tech, or just incremental?