ideas-forecasting

name	ideas-forecasting
description	Build a 90-day startup forecast and proposed goals from a business idea and product specs using web research (competitor analysis, price bands, channel benchmarks, demand signals). Use when a user provides idea/product inputs and wants the agent to set most targets, assumptions, risks, and validation metrics before SFS-00 or ideas-go-faster.

Ideas Forecasting

Use this skill to invert planning: user provides the business idea and products, then the agent proposes practical 90-day targets from external evidence.

Invocation

/ideas-forecasting
/ideas-forecasting --biz=HEAD
/ideas-forecasting --biz=PET --country=IT --horizon-days=90
/ideas-forecasting --biz=PET --launch-surface=pre-website

Defaults:

• horizon-days=90
• country=IT if not provided
• launch-surface=website-live unless user states no site is ready
• focus: speed to first sales for startup businesses

Inputs

Minimum required:

• Business code: e.g. HEAD, PET
• Business idea: one-paragraph concept
• Products: list of products with short specs

Strongly recommended:

• Price intent (if known): target price or range
• Channels: DTC site, marketplaces, social commerce, retail, etc.
• Budget guardrails: launch budget cap and ad budget guardrail
• Stock timeline: date first sellable stock is available
• Launch surface: website-live or pre-website
• Constraints: legal, ops, brand, geography, supply chain

Launch Surface Modes

website-live

Use standard ecommerce funnel forecasting.

Core forecast metrics:

• sessions
• conversion rate
• AOV
• orders
• gross revenue
• gross margin
• CAC

pre-website

Use this when no production website is ready. Forecast around early sales validation channels and assisted commerce.

Core forecast metrics:

• qualified leads
• assisted order attempts
• assisted order conversion rate
• pre-order/deposit count (if used)
• average order value proxy
• gross revenue
• gross margin
• blended acquisition cost proxy

Channel focus for research and recommendations:

• lightweight landing + form capture
• social DM/WhatsApp assisted sales
• marketplace trial listing (if appropriate)
• community/partner channels

Operating Rules

1. Separate observed vs inferred in every numeric section.
2. Use scenario ranges (P10, P50, P90), never single-point certainty.
3. Prefer region-relevant recent sources; attach URL + access date.
4. Do not invent competitor metrics when not available.
5. Optimize recommendations for startup speed-to-revenue, not infrastructure perfection.
6. Treat outputs as forecast proposals requiring operator approval.

Workflow

Stage 1: Intake and Clarify

1. Capture required inputs.
2. Ask up to 3 high-impact clarification questions if blockers remain.
3. Freeze an intake packet for this run.

Stage 2: Build Research Prompt

1. Load references/deep-research-prompt-template.md.
2. Fill placeholders from intake packet.
3. Set launch-surface explicitly and enforce mode-specific metric guidance.
4. Keep expected outputs contract intact.

Stage 3: Run Research

1. Run Deep Research using the filled prompt (preferred).
2. If Deep Research is unavailable, run equivalent manual web research with citation discipline.
3. Collect evidence in a source table before forecasting.

Stage 4: Forecast and Goal Proposal

Produce:

1. 90-day scenario forecast (P10/P50/P90) using mode-appropriate metrics:
   • if website-live: sessions, conversion rate, AOV, orders, gross revenue, gross margin, CAC, payback proxy
   • if pre-website: qualified leads, assisted order attempts, assisted conversion, pre-orders/deposits (if used), AOV proxy, gross revenue, gross margin, acquisition cost proxy
2. competitor benchmark table (pricing, offer structure, channel posture)
3. proposed targets for first 90 days and first 4 weeks
4. assumption register with confidence tags (high/medium/low)
5. risk register with mitigation actions
6. week-1/week-2 validation checklist to recalibrate forecast quickly

Stage 5: Persist Outputs

Write:

• docs/business-os/forecasts/<YYYY-MM-DD>-<BIZ>-forecast.user.md

If this run is intended to seed SFS-00, also write:

• docs/business-os/startup-baselines/<BIZ>-forecast-seed.user.md

Output Contract

<YYYY-MM-DD>-<BIZ>-forecast.user.md must include:

1. Executive Summary (<=12 bullets)
2. Input Packet (what user provided)
3. Launch Surface Mode (website-live or pre-website) and chosen metric set
4. Competitor Benchmark Table (with source links)
5. 90-Day Forecast Table (P10/P50/P90)
6. Proposed Outcome Statement
7. Proposed Targets
8. Assumptions Register
9. Risk Register
10. First-14-Day Validation Plan
11. Source List (URL + access date)
12. Confidence and Caveats

Definition of Expected Outcomes

An expected outcome in this skill means a measurable 90-day business result with:

• Outcome statement: plain-language result
• Baseline: starting point now
• Target: expected value or range by deadline
• Deadline: exact date
• Leading indicators: weekly signals proving progress
• Decision link: what decision this outcome unlocks

Use forecast evidence to propose these fields; do not leave them blank.

Integration with Existing Flow

1. Forecasting runs before idea prioritization when startup context is sparse.
2. Approved forecast outcomes seed SFS-00 business intent baseline.
3. ideas-go-faster should use approved forecast outcomes as steering constraints.
4. fact-find / plan-feature / build-feature remain the delivery path for selected go items.

Red Flags (invalid output)

1. Missing competitor citations for numeric claims.
2. Single-point target claims without scenario ranges.
3. No distinction between observed data and inferred estimates.
4. No first-14-day validation plan.
5. Proposed goals that ignore user budget/stock constraints.
6. Uses website-only metrics in pre-website mode without conversion mapping.