think-futures-wheel

name	think-futures-wheel
description	Produces a consequence map by tracing the first, second, and third order effects of a change or decision radiating outward from the center, surfacing ripples beyond the obvious and flagging the high-impact branches. Use when a decision has knock-on effects over time, or when first-order thinking is missing downstream risks and opportunities.
license	Apache-2.0
metadata	{"id":"thinking-framework-skills.futures-wheel","family":"systems-and-consequences","evidence-tier":"P","version":"0.1.0","standard":"0.8"}

Futures Wheel

Most analysis stops at first-order consequences: the immediate, obvious results. A futures wheel pushes past that. The change goes at the center; first-order consequences radiate around it; each of those spawns second-order consequences ("and then what?"); then third-order. The structure forces attention onto the downstream and cross-domain ripples that linear thinking skips, and flags the branches worth a response. The output is a consequence map. For a quick pass, a lightweight "second-order effects" mode runs only the first-to-second step.

When to Use

• A decision or change has knock-on effects that play out over time.
• First-order analysis is missing downstream risks or opportunities.
• Scanning the systemic side effects of a new idea before committing.

When NOT to Use

• Simple, linear situations with no meaningful higher-order effects.
• When you need to decide, not explore (hand the map to a decision skill).
• When the result would be branches to irrelevance rather than a focused map.

Instructions

When asked to build a futures wheel, follow these steps:

1. Center it. State the change or decision at the middle, in one line.
2. First order. List the immediate, direct consequences. Span domains (technical, financial, customer, team, competitive), not just the obvious one.
3. Second order. For each meaningful first-order effect, ask "and then what happens?" and add its consequences.
4. Third order. For the branches that still matter, extend one more step. Stop a branch when it goes trivial.
5. Flag the branches that matter. Mark the high-impact or non-obvious consequences, and add a one-line "watch or do about it" for each.
6. Emit the consequence map per references/TEMPLATE.md.

Output Format

Use the template in references/TEMPLATE.md. The deliverable is the nested consequence map with flagged branches, not prose.

Quality Checklist

Before finalizing, verify:

• The map reaches at least second order; it does not stop at first-order.
• First-order effects span multiple domains, not just the obvious one.
• Branches that go trivial are pruned, not padded.
• The high-impact or non-obvious branches are flagged with a response note.
• Branches are presented as possible ripples to watch, not predictions.
• The output is the consequence map artifact, not prose.

Evidence

Tier P. The futures wheel is an established foresight method (Glenn, 1971; used in foresight practice and documented in primers such as UNICEF's 2025 guidance), valued for pushing analysis beyond first-order consequences. Its validation is qualitative; it does not predict the future, so branches are structured speculation, not probabilities. Evidence is transferred from human foresight practice, not AI-validated. Full grading: evidence/dossier.md.

Examples

See references/EXAMPLE.md for a completed consequence map.