13f-analyze

name	13f_analyze
plugin	portfolio-advisor
description	Surgical 13F analysis skill. Cross-references the latest SA LP 13F filing diff against target-portfolio.json to produce gated INITIATE/ACCUMULATE/TRIM/EXIT recommendations. Applies approved changes using update_targets.py. Trigger on "/13f-analyze", "analyze SA LP filing", "what does the new 13F mean for my portfolio", or "should I act on the 13F".
allowed-tools	Bash, Read, Write

13F Analyze Skill

What This Skill Does

1. Polls for the latest SA LP 13F (runs fetch_13f.py --poll first — catches new filings automatically)
2. Cross-references SA LP holdings diff against target-portfolio.json targets and actions
3. Gates every signal through DCF + conflict rules (same discipline as x-news-sweep)
4. Presents a gated recommendation table — EXIT/TRIM/ACCUMULATE/INITIATE/HOLD/CONFLICT
5. Applies approved changes via update_targets.py with agentRationale updates

---

When to Run

• After /13f-tracker --poll detects a new filing — run /13f-analyze immediately
• At session start during filing windows: May 1–15, Aug 1–15, Nov 1–15, Feb 1–15
• To verify pending actions: "does the SA LP filing change my plan for X?"

To refresh / poll for new filing:

venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py --cik 0002045724 --poll

If new filing detected, it downloads automatically, then run /13f-analyze.

---

Phase 1 — Poll and Load

# Step 1: check for and download any new filing
venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py \
  --cik 0002045724 --poll

# Step 2: load diff and portfolio
cat investment_screener/backend/data/13f/0002045724_diff.json
cat investment_screener/backend/data/theses/target-portfolio.json

Load both files. Build a lookup: { ticker → { targetWeight, action, dcfSignal } } from target-portfolio.json.

---

Phase 2 — Cross-Reference Signals

For each SA LP position change, produce a signal:

SA LP CLOSED a position

If ticker in my portfolio:
  → Signal: EXIT or TRIM (depending on conviction)
  If ticker is an INITIATE target (targetWeight > 0, not yet owned):
  → Signal: DO NOT INITIATE — SA LP exited

SA LP OPENED a new position (large: >$50M)

If ticker NOT in my portfolio:
  → Signal: REVIEW FOR INITIATE
If ticker already in portfolio at MAINTAIN/HOLD:
  → Signal: Consider increasing target
If ticker already targeted for TRIM:
  → Signal: CONFLICT — SA initiating while you plan to trim (flag for user decision)

SA LP INCREASED significantly (>+50%)

  → ACCUMULATE signal — reinforces any existing ACCUMULATE action
  If current action is TRIM or REVIEW:
  → CONFLICT — flag; SA may have information you don't

SA LP DECREASED significantly (>-30%)

  → TRIM signal — reinforces any existing TRIM action
  If current action is ACCUMULATE:
  → CONFLICT — flag

---

Phase 3 — Gate Every Recommendation

Apply these gates before showing the user anything:

Gate A — No EXIT on SA call/option positions

SA LP holding only calls (put_call == "Call") is an options position, not a long equity signal. Do NOT recommend EXIT on the underlying based on options alone. Example: INTC — SA has $747M in calls but closed common. Flag as NUANCED, not EXIT.

Gate B — No INITIATE on DCF SELL-rated if SA also closed

If SA closed AND DCF upside < 0%: BLOCKED — doubly bearish.

Gate C — SA close ≠ immediate exit if high conviction thesis

If SA closed a position but the holding has a strong independent thesis (e.g. a pillar-core position): → gate_status = CONFIRM (user must decide) → gate_reason = "SA closed but thesis still intact — confirm exit intent"

Gate D — Weight constraints

No single recommendation should push any position above 15% of portfolio. No single recommendation should push total portfolio weight above 100%.

Gate E — INTC special rule

SA LP holds $747M in INTC calls (13.5% of fund). They converted equity → options (Terafab upside capture). Your INTC equity position at 9.2% → trim to 7.5% is CONSISTENT with SA's move (reduce equity, maintain thesis exposure). Do not flag as conflict.

---

Phase 4 — Present Gated Table

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║          13F ANALYSIS — SA LP Q{quarter} {year}                         ║
║          Filing: {filing_date}  |  Period: {period_of_report}           ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Ticker  Your%→Target%   Rec         Gate         SA LP Signal
------  -------------   ---         ----         ------------
VST     2.1% → 1.2%    EXIT        ✅ APPROVED   SA closed entire $252M position
TSM     0%  → 2.2%     DON'T INIT  ✅ APPROVED   SA closed $75M position
NVDA    2.1% → 2.8%    HOLD/WAIT   ⚠️ CONFLICT   SA closed $299M; your thesis says accumulate
BE      2.2% → 5.2%    ACCELERATE  ✅ APPROVED   SA #1 position $875M (15.9%)
CRWV    4.0% → 5.8%    ACCELERATE  ✅ APPROVED   SA +336%, combined 21.9% of fund
SNDK    0%  → 0.7%     INITIATE    ✅ APPROVED   SA +817% ($250M)
LITE    2.3% → 2.1%    ↑ TARGET    ❓ CONFIRM    SA new $479M (8.7%) — your target may be too low
COHR    1.2% → 0.9%    HOLD TRIM   ⚠️ CONFLICT   SA +211% while you plan to trim
INTC    9.2% → 7.5%    TRIM        ✅ NUANCED    SA converted equity→calls; trim equity consistent
PANW    5.5% → 4.8%    TRIM        ✅ APPROVED   Not in SA LP; own DCF confirms trim

Approved: {N} | Conflicts: {N} | Blocked: {N} | Confirm: {N}

Auto-proceed rule: If all items are APPROVED or WARN (allowlisted SA/DCF conflicts), apply immediately without waiting for "apply" — state "Applying N approved changes..." and proceed to Phase 5. Only gate if any item is CONFIRM (new position needing approval) or BLOCKED. This prevents stale modal state after every 13F analysis.

---

Phase 5 — Apply Approved Changes & Strategy Refactoring

# 1. Update target weights in target-portfolio.json
# For standard adjustments:
python3 scripts/update_targets.py \
  --set TICKER1=X.XX TICKER2=Y.YY \
  --write --blueprint

# For complex structural shifts (e.g. zeroing out exited sectors, locking actual weights, and auto-scaling):
# Use the precision target sizing service:
python3 investment_screener/backend/py_services/lock_and_normalize_targets.py \
  --target-file investment_screener/backend/data/theses/target-portfolio.json \
  --zeros INTC,NVDA,AMD,TSM,ASML,MU,LITE,COHR,EQT,DRAM \
  --locks GOOG=4.4451,HUMN=2.8284,KOID=2.6500,COIN=2.8060,CRCL=3.3855,ETHA=0.0,IBIT=0.0 \
  --adjusts BE=5.0,IREN=1.8,SNDK=0.5 \
  --write

# 2. Update metadata in investment_thesis.md
# Update the metadata table at the top of investment_screener/backend/data/theses/investment_thesis.md to record:
#   | **Thesis Last Analyzed** | YYYY-MM-DD (Note) |
#   | **13F Last Refactored**  | YYYY-MM-DD (Refactored SA LP Q{N} {year} filed {filing_date} into target-portfolio.json) |

# 3. Synchronize the qualitative thesis layout with the new targets
python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/generate_portfolio_blueprint.py --write

# 4. Update agentRationale for each changed ticker
# Format: "SA LP Q{N} {year}: {specific signal — closed/new/+X%}. {action taken}."

# 5. Generate review JSON, refresh, and run the automated verification suite
python3 scripts/generate_review_json.py
python3 scripts/verify_refresh.py
python3 investment_screener/backend/py_services/verify_thesis_sync.py

---

Phase 6 — Session Close

Print summary:

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║              13F ANALYSIS COMPLETE                                       ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

✅ {N} targets updated  (Investment Thesis v{version})
✅ agentRationale updated for {N} tickers
✅ verify_refresh.py: All checks passed
✅ verify_thesis_sync.py: All synchronization checks passed

Changes applied:
  VST    2.1% → 0.0%   EXIT   (SA closed)
  BE     2.2% → 5.2%   ACCUM  (SA #1 position)
  ...

Deferred (confirm required):
  NVDA — SA closed but DCF strong; no change made
  LITE — target increase pending your decision

Chaining Instructions (Unified Investment Loop)

[!IMPORTANT] After completing the 13F Analysis, explicitly prompt the user to trigger /run-advisor to run the Portfolio Advisor Orchestrator (portfolio-advisor-orchestrator.md). Explain that the orchestrator will:

1. Run the interactive stock-by-stock Q&A for high-impact decisions (exits, initiations, adjusts > 1.5%).
2. Coordinate Precision Target Sizing & Normalization (zeros, locks actual weights, normalizes to 100%, updates blueprints).
3. Run the Strategic Portfolio Review (/strategic-review) to verify conviction alignment.
4. Generate the Rebalance recommendations (/rebalance) to compute drift trades.
5. Draft the automated TradingView execution orders (/place-order) with correct sequencing and accounts.

---

Hard Rules

1. Never apply without Phase 3 gates.
2. SA calls ≠ equity signal — distinguish options vs common stock positions.
3. Never blindly follow SA — if your thesis contradicts SA, flag as CONFLICT, not auto-apply.
4. Always update agentRationale — future sessions need to know why targets changed.
5. Run verify_refresh.py and verify_thesis_sync.py — final gates before reporting done.
6. Always verify synchronization — never leave target-portfolio.json, investment_thesis.md, or projections/ out of sync.
7. Lock Gate 7 / Actual Weights — when sector liquidations occur, lock core and thematic holdings to exact actual broker weights to prevent unintended drift during normalization.
8. Log Thesis Analysis & 13F Refactor Dates — always update the Thesis Last Analyzed and 13F Last Refactored metadata keys in investment_thesis.md to guarantee visibility of active strategy updates.
9. Chaining MANDATE — Never end a 13F analysis session without explicitly prompting the user to run /run-advisor to execute target calibration, strategic review, rebalancing, and TradingView order drafting.

---

Refresh Trigger (How to Check for New Filings)

Say any of:

• "check for new SA LP 13F"
• "poll for new 13F filing"
• "any new SA LP filings?"

This runs:

venv/bin/python3 plugins/portfolio-advisor/scripts/fetch_13f.py \
  --cik 0002045724 --poll

If new filing found → automatically runs /13f-analyze.

Filing windows: Poll daily from May 1–15, Aug 1–15, Nov 1–15, Feb 1–15. Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar period): filing due by ~May 15, 2026 — check now.