| name | business-model |
| description | Fills a complete Lean Canvas (or Business Model Canvas) across every block — problem, customer segments, unique value proposition, solution, channels, revenue, cost, key metrics, and unfair advantage — then flags the single riskiest block to validate first. Use when you say "map our business model," "fill a lean canvas," "what's our UVP," "how do we make money," "where's the riskiest assumption," or "pressure-test this idea before we build." |
| tier | guided |
| time | 45-90 min |
| inputs | who pays, for what, and what it costs you to serve |
| outputs | strategy/business-model.md |
Business Model
Captures an entire business or product bet on one page using Ash Maurya's Lean Canvas (the startup-oriented variant of Osterwalder's Business Model Canvas), then ranks blocks by risk so you validate the assumption most likely to kill the business — before you spend a quarter building.
Grounded in: Running Lean — Ash Maurya: the Lean Canvas and finding the riskiest block to validate first.
Go deeper (The Product Channel): Product Led Growth
When to use this
- A new product, feature line, or 0-to-1 bet needs a one-page model before it goes to leadership or a build team.
- You have a deck full of vision but can't crisply say who pays, for what, and why you instead of an incumbent.
- An existing product's economics feel off and you need to see the whole revenue/cost/segment picture at once.
- You're prepping a stage-gate, investment ask, or kill/continue decision and need the riskiest assumption named explicitly.
- A founder or stakeholder keeps debating the solution before anyone agreed on the problem or the customer.
Before you start (gather these)
- Customer segment(s) — who specifically has the problem, and who's the early adopter (not "everyone").
- Top 1–3 problems — the actual pains, and what they do today as a workaround.
- How money moves — pricing idea, who pays, and rough cost structure (even ballpark).
- Why you — any unfair advantage, traction, or asset a competitor can't copy.
If two or more of these are missing or vague, ASK 2–4 sharp clarifying questions before filling the canvas — e.g. "Who's the single early-adopter segment, not the eventual market?", "What does this person do today instead?", "Who actually pays, and roughly how much?", "What can't a well-funded competitor copy in 6 months?" If the inputs are already provided, proceed and state any assumptions inline as [ASSUMPTION: ...] so they're visible and testable.
Existing-business mode. If this is a running business (has ARR, paying users, or live traffic) rather than a 0-to-1 bet, the problem and segment are already validated by the fact that people pay — don't re-litigate them as interview assumptions. Instead:
- Pull segment, problem, and unit-economics from data, not interviews. Read who actually pays and churns from billing/analytics, which problem retains them from usage and support tickets, and CAC/LTV/margin from real revenue and cost numbers. Treat these blocks as measured, not assumed (Uncertainty drops accordingly).
- Default the risk lens to Solution + Key Metrics — the assumptions most likely to still be unproven once problem/segment are settled (does the solution actually move the metric that compounds the model?).
- Look for the unfair advantage in what you already own — proprietary data, an installed user base, or distribution a new entrant can't buy is usually the real moat for an operating business.
Process
- Lock the segment first. Fill the customer segment and name an early adopter sub-segment. Everything else inherits from who. If the segment is "everyone," it's wrong — narrow it.
- Problem before solution. Write the top 1–3 problems and the existing alternatives (what they hack together today). Resist writing solutions here.
- Draft the UVP as a single, specific sentence. "We help [segment] achieve [outcome] without [pain of the old way]." Add a high-level concept ("X for Y") if it sharpens it. Make it a claim, not a feature list.
- Map solution to problems 1:1. Each top problem gets exactly one solution bullet. If a solution doesn't trace to a problem, cut it.
- Channels — path to customers. List how you reach the segment (inbound, outbound, partnerships, communities). Flag which are unproven.
- Revenue & cost on the same pass. Revenue streams + pricing model; cost structure (CAC, COGS, fixed). Do a back-of-envelope unit-economics sanity check — does a customer net positive?
- Key metrics — the one number. Pick the 1–3 numbers that tell you the model works (activation, retention, paid conversion). Name the single "North Star."
- Unfair advantage — be honest. Only list things that can't be easily copied or bought (insider info, network effects, community, exclusive partnerships). "Great team" and "first mover" don't count.
- Rank risk and pick ONE. Score all nine blocks on the two axes that matter: Uncertainty (1–5, how unproven the assumption is) and Fatal (1–5, how badly the business dies if it's wrong). Risk = Uncertainty × Fatal (range 1–25). Break ties by the higher Fatal score. The highest-Risk block is what you validate next — name it and propose the cheapest experiment to test it.
Output template
# Business Model — [Product / Venture Name]
Framework: Lean Canvas · Date: [YYYY-MM-DD] · Owner: [name]
## The Canvas
| Block | Contents |
|---|---|
| **1. Problem** | 1. [top problem] · 2. [problem] · 3. [problem]<br>**Existing alternatives:** [what they do today] |
| **2. Customer Segments** | [target segment]<br>**Early adopter:** [specific beachhead — who feels the pain most] |
| **3. Unique Value Proposition** | "[We help [segment] achieve [outcome] without [old-way pain].]"<br>**High-level concept:** [X for Y] |
| **4. Solution** | P1 → [solution] · P2 → [solution] · P3 → [solution] |
| **5. Channels** | [channel] · [channel] · [channel] ([proven] / [unproven]) |
| **6. Revenue Streams** | [model: subscription/usage/one-time] · Price: [$] · Who pays: [payer] |
| **7. Cost Structure** | [CAC] · [COGS / unit cost] · [fixed costs]<br>**Unit-economics check:** [LTV vs CAC, gross margin — does a customer net positive?] |
| **8. Key Metrics** | [metric] · [metric]<br>**North Star:** [the one number] |
| **9. Unfair Advantage** | [thing competitors can't copy or buy] |
## Riskiest Block to Validate First
Risk = Uncertainty × Fatal (1–25). Score **all nine blocks**; break ties by the higher Fatal score.
| Block | Uncertainty (1–5) | Fatal if wrong? (1–5) | Risk (U × F) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Problem | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Customer Segments | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| UVP | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Solution | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Channels | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Revenue Streams | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Cost Structure | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Key Metrics | [n] | [n] | [n] |
| Unfair Advantage | [n] | [n] | [n] |
**Riskiest block: [name]** — [one sentence: why this assumption, if false, sinks the model].
[the smallest experiment — e.g. 5 problem interviews, a fake-door landing page, a pre-sale of 10 units, a smoke-test ad] · [the specific result that confirms or kills it] · [days/weeks].
[ASSUMPTION: ...] — [how we'll resolve it]
Avoid (anti-patterns)
- Solutions hiding in the Problem block. "They need a dashboard" is a solution; the problem is "they can't see X without manual spreadsheet work." Keep them separate.
- "Everyone" as a segment. A canvas with a broad market and no named early adopter can't be validated; it just feels safe.
- A UVP that's a feature list. "Fast, secure, AI-powered" is not a value proposition. It must name the outcome and the pain it removes.
- Fake unfair advantage. Listing "passion," "first mover," or "great team" — all copyable or buyable. If a competitor with money could replicate it this quarter, it's not unfair.
- Skipping the risk ranking. A filled canvas with no riskiest-block call is a poster, not a decision tool. The whole point is choosing what to test first.
Tips
- Fill the canvas in problem-driven order (segment → problem → UVP → solution), not left-to-right. The right side (revenue, cost) only makes sense once the left side is real.
- Pressure-test revenue against cost on the same pass — a beautiful UVP with LTV < CAC is a charity, not a business.
- For the riskiest block, default to the cheapest test that can return a no. You're hunting for disconfirmation, not validation theater.
- Re-run this monthly on live bets. The riskiest block changes as you de-risk; last month's scariest assumption is often this month's known fact.
