| name | market-research |
| description | Conducts market sizing, trend analysis, audience segmentation, and opportunity assessment for business ideas and products. Use when a user is validating a new business idea, entering a new market, preparing a pitch deck, or needs data to support strategic decisions. |
Market Research
When to Use This Skill
- Validating a new business idea before investing time/money
- Preparing market analysis for a business plan or pitch deck
- Entering a new market segment or geography
- Evaluating whether demand exists for a product or service
- Understanding the competitive landscape before launching
Core Principle
MARKET RESEARCH ANSWERS ONE QUESTION: IS THERE A PROFITABLE GAP BETWEEN WHAT PEOPLE WANT AND WHAT'S CURRENTLY AVAILABLE?
Workflow
Step 1: Define the Research Scope
Ask the user:
- What product, service, or business idea are you researching?
- Who do you think your ideal customer is?
- What specific question are you trying to answer? (Is there demand? How big is the market? Who are the competitors? What should I charge?)
- What geography? (US, global, specific region)
Minimum needed: question 1.
Step 2: Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)
Calculate three layers:
- TAM (Total Addressable Market): Everyone who could theoretically buy this
- SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): The segment you can realistically reach with your business model
- SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): What you can realistically capture in year 1-2
Sizing Methods:
- Top-down: Start with industry data, narrow by segment and geography
- Bottom-up: Start with unit economics (price × potential customers)
- Comparable: Use a similar product's market as a proxy
Always use at least two methods and cross-reference.
Step 3: Audience Segmentation
Define 2-3 target segments:
| Segment | Demographics | Pain Points | Willingness to Pay | Where They Hang Out |
|---|
| Primary | | | | |
| Secondary | | | | |
| Tertiary | | | | |
Step 4: Competitive Landscape
Map competitors on two axes: price and specialization.
| Competitor | Price Point | Target Customer | Strengths | Weaknesses | Market Position |
|---|
| | | | | |
Identify the gap — the underserved intersection of audience and price point.
Step 5: Trend Analysis
Identify 3-5 relevant trends:
- Industry growth trajectory
- Consumer behavior shifts
- Technology enablers
- Regulatory changes
- Cultural or demographic trends
Step 6: Opportunity Assessment
Deliver a clear recommendation:
| Factor | Score (1-5) | Notes |
|---|
| Market Size | | |
| Growth Trajectory | | |
| Competition Intensity | | |
| Barrier to Entry | | |
| Your Differentiation | | |
| Overall Opportunity | X/5 | |
Examples
Example 1: Online Bookkeeping Service for E-commerce Sellers
Market Sizing:
- TAM: US small business bookkeeping market = $55B annually. 33.2M small businesses, ~60% outsource some bookkeeping function.
- SAM: E-commerce businesses specifically = ~2.5M active Shopify, Etsy, Amazon, and WooCommerce sellers in the US doing $50K-$2M annual revenue. At $300-500/month for bookkeeping services = $9-15B.
- SOM (Year 1): Targeting Shopify sellers in the $100K-$500K revenue range = ~400,000 sellers. At 0.1% capture rate = 400 clients × $400/mo = $1.92M ARR.
Audience Segments:
| Segment | Profile | Pain Point | WTP |
|---|
| Solo Shopify seller ($100-300K) | One-person operation, handling everything | Hates bookkeeping, does it quarterly in a panic | $200-350/mo |
| Growing e-commerce brand ($300K-1M) | Small team, selling on multiple platforms | Needs inventory tracking, multi-channel reconciliation | $400-600/mo |
| Amazon FBA seller ($200K+) | Relies on FBA, complex fee structure | Amazon fees make P&L confusing, needs FBA-specific expertise | $300-500/mo |
Competitive Landscape:
| Competitor | Price | Target | Strength | Weakness |
|---|
| Bench | $299-499/mo | General small business | Strong brand, tech platform | Not e-commerce specialized |
| A2X | $19-99/mo (software only) | E-commerce | Deep platform integration | Software only, no human support |
| Local bookkeepers | $200-400/mo | Local businesses | Personal relationship | No e-commerce expertise, manual processes |
Gap identified: No dedicated bookkeeping service combines e-commerce platform expertise (like A2X) with human bookkeeping support (like Bench) at a mid-market price. This is the opportunity.
Opportunity Score: 4.2/5 — Large market, growing segment, fragmented competition, clear differentiation possible.
Example 2: Meal Prep Delivery for Remote Workers
Quick Assessment:
- TAM: US meal delivery market = $26.4B (2024), growing 12.5% CAGR
- SAM: Meal prep specifically (not restaurant delivery) for professionals = ~$4.8B
- SOM (Year 1): Single metro area, 500 subscribers × $150/week × 50 weeks = $3.75M
Key Trends Supporting:
- Remote work is permanent for 30%+ of knowledge workers
- Health-conscious eating up 23% post-pandemic
- "Functional food" trend — meals optimized for energy/focus
- Subscription fatigue is real — but food subscriptions have highest retention rates
Competition Intensity: HIGH — Factor, Trifecta, Snap Kitchen, plus 50+ local operators in most metros. Differentiation must be razor-sharp.
Recommendation: Viable only with a hyper-specific niche (e.g., "brain-performance meals for remote tech workers" or "macro-counted meals for CrossFit athletes"). General meal prep is a red ocean.
Recovery & Fallbacks
- No industry data available: Use bottom-up sizing from comparable businesses, social proof (subreddit sizes, Facebook group membership, search volume), and proxy markets.
- User's idea is too niche to size: That's often a good sign. Size the adjacent market and estimate the niche as a percentage.
- Market looks saturated: Saturated markets still have gaps. Look for underserved segments, pricing tiers, or geographic pockets. If truly no gap exists, say so honestly.
- User wants exact numbers: All market sizing is estimation. Present ranges, not false precision. Label sources and assumptions clearly.
Constraints
- ALWAYS state data sources and assumptions — never present estimates as facts
- NEVER guarantee market outcomes — research reduces risk, it doesn't eliminate it
- Present TAM/SAM/SOM as ranges when exact data isn't available
- Distinguish between addressable market and actual demand
- Include at least one contrarian data point or risk factor — don't just confirm what the user wants to hear
