scenario-war-room

name	scenario-war-room
description	Manage — Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simu
license	MIT
metadata	{"version":"1.0.0","author":"Alireza Rezvani","category":"c-level","domain":"strategic-planning","updated":"2026-03-05T00:00:00.000Z","python-tools":"scenario_modeler.py","frameworks":"scenario-planning"}
executor	HYBRID
skill_id	business.c-level-advisor.scenario-war-room
status	ADOPTED
security	{"level":"standard","pii":false,"approval_required":false}
anchors	["business","testing","ai_ml"]
tier	2
input_schema	[{"name":"code_or_task","type":"string","description":"Code snippet, script, or task description to process","required":true}]
output_schema	[{"name":"plan","type":"string","description":"Strategic plan or design document"},{"name":"next_steps","type":"array","description":"List of recommended next steps"}]

Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

Keywords

scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

Quick Start

python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling

Or describe the scenario:

/war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?"
/war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?"
/war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

What This Is Not

• Not a single-assumption stress test (that's /em:stress-test)
• Not financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
• Not worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
• Not paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)

State each variable with:

• What changes — specific, quantified if possible
• Probability — your best estimate
• Timeline — when it hits

Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown

Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

Domain	Owner	Models
Cash & runway	CFO	Burn impact, runway change, bridge options
Revenue	CRO	ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline
Product	CPO	Roadmap impact, PMF risk
Engineering	CTO	Velocity impact, key person risk
People