sector-rotation

name

sector-rotation

description

Read what's moving across the whole market right now — which sectors are surging vs crashing, and where capital is rotating between them, across long / medium / short timeframes. The right-side, top-of-funnel "what is the market actually doing" read. Use when the user has no specific target and wants the lay of the land: "what's hot right now", "what sectors are surging / crashing", "where is money rotating", "what's leading and lagging", "is this risk-on or risk-off", "what should I be looking at this week", "show me the rotation map". Hands the standout movers off to a value-chain scan to dig into.

Sector rotation — what's moving and where money is going

Rotation between sectors is often a clearer trend than anything inside a single value chain. This is the right-side read most real (medium/short-term) trading runs on — and the thing you'll open most often. The point is not a gainers list; it's "where is money rotating, on what timeframe, and does it hold together."

Procedure (don't answer from memory — go to the data)

The data is on your CLIs: traderhub board / traderhub etf for sector & theme performance, alice analysis quant for momentum across timeframes and breadth, alice rss grep for the news narrative. (See the traderhub, alice-analysis skills.)

1. Rank the field across timeframes. Look at sector/theme performance and momentum over long, medium, and short windows. The signal isn't any single window — it's how they line up:
   • long up + short up → established uptrend (real, but maybe late)
   • long up + short down → pullback in an uptrend (buy-the-dip, not a top)
   • long down + short up → a bounce or early rotation-in — decide which
   • long down + short down → downtrend (avoid, or watch for capitulation)
2. Map the rotation, not just the levels. Rotation is a FROM → TO: money leaving sectors that were strong and are now breaking, going into ones turning up. Name both ends. A one-day pop with nothing behind it is noise, not rotation.
3. Confirm or doubt it. A rotation is trustworthy when timeframes, market breadth (what's leading vs lagging beneath the index), and the news narrative point the same way. When only the shortest timeframe moves, distrust it.
4. Overlay the macro regime. Rotations make sense inside a regime — risk-on vs risk-off, rates up vs down, early vs late cycle. Tie what you see to the macro picture: does the rotation fit a coherent story, or is it noise? A rotation that contradicts the regime is either early (valuable) or wrong.
5. Hand off the standouts. For each surging/crashing sector worth a look, give a one-line read and the next move — usually "decompose this one" (the scan-value-chain skill) to find the names carrying the move.

Output — persist a dated snapshot

Rotation is about change over time, so write a dated snapshot (rotation/<date>.md, or whatever layout the user agrees) rather than overwriting one file. The latest snapshot is the current read; the series is the rotation itself — next session diffs against the last one ("what changed since Tuesday"). Don't impose a layout; settle it with the user, then CRUD the series.

Worked example (schematic — illustrates the read, NOT the current tape)

Run this live; the tape moves daily. The shape to produce:

sector	long	mid	short	read
A	strong	strong	pulling back	buy-the-dip in an uptrend — not a top
B	weak	turning up	surging	early rotation-in if breadth + news confirm; else a dead-cat bounce
C	strong	rolling over	down	distribution — money leaving; a FROM end
D	weak	weak	down	downtrend, no read

Rotation call: money rotating C → B (out of the rolling-over leader into the turning-up laggard). Confirm: is B's strength broad (many names) or one ticker? does the news support a reason? Regime fit: does C → B match the macro regime (e.g. a rates move favoring B's profile), or is it a head-fake? Hand off: B looks like the live thread → decompose B's value chain next to find which names carry it.