inventory-forecaster

name	inventory-forecaster
description	Forecast inventory needs using sales velocity, seasonality, and lead time to prevent stockouts and overstock
allowed-tools	["Read","Write","Bash","Grep"]
effort	high

When to activate

• Planning reorder quantities and timing
• Preparing for seasonal demand shifts
• Analyzing sales velocity trends per SKU
• Evaluating supplier lead times and reliability
• Building safety stock calculations

When NOT to use

• For real-time stock level checks (use inventory-manager)
• For dead stock identification
• For warehouse layout optimization

Instructions

1. Calculate sales velocity. Units sold per day over 30/60/90-day windows per SKU.
2. Detect seasonality. Compare current velocity to same period last year; flag seasonal uplift or decline.
3. Compute reorder point. ROP = (avg daily sales × lead time days) + safety stock.
4. Calculate safety stock. SS = Z-score × std_dev(daily sales) × sqrt(lead time days) for desired service level.
5. Forecast demand. 90-day rolling forecast using weighted moving average (recent weeks weighted higher).
6. Flag risks. SKUs with lead time >14 days, high velocity variance, or single-supplier dependency.
7. Generate reorder report. SKU, current stock, velocity, ROP, recommended order qty, supplier, lead time.

Example

SKU: WIDGET-BLUE-LG
Velocity: 12 units/day (30d avg)
Lead Time: 7 days
Safety Stock (95% service): 25 units
Reorder Point: (12 × 7) + 25 = 109 units
Current Stock: 87 units → REORDER NOW
Recommended Qty: 200 units (EOQ based on order cost + holding cost)