dalio-principles-allweather

name	dalio-principles-allweather
description	Use when evaluating portfolios through Ray Dalio-style economic machine, debt cycles, diversification, risk parity, and all-weather asset allocation.
invest	./invest.md

Dalio Principles All-Weather

Use this skill to apply Ray Dalio-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

• all-weather portfolio design
• macro regime allocation
• risk parity review
• debt-cycle positioning

Trigger phrases include Dalio, All Weather, risk parity, economic machine, debt cycle, diversify.

Do Not Use When

• The setup is outside this model's universe and another investor skill fits better.
• Critical data is missing and the model requires it.
• The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
• The request is only generic market chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

• Asset, portfolio, theme, or market context
• Relevant financial, market, regime, or structural data
• Time horizon and risk constraints
• Current price/valuation or portfolio weights if sizing is requested

Process

1. Map growth and inflation regime.
2. Identify debt-cycle stage and policy constraints.
3. Allocate by risk contribution across equities, bonds, commodities, gold, cash.
4. Rebalance when regime or risk contributions drift.

Output Format

# Dalio Principles All-Weather View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Overweight / Underweight / Hedge / Neutral / Rebalance

## Setup / Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

• Do not force a trade when filters fail.
• Do not ignore risk, liquidity, or regime constraints.
• Do not mix this model with another unless comparison is requested.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.

Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a judgment module for Funds, research workflows, monitoring, and risk-aware decision support.