prospective-kit

name	prospective-kit
description	Use this after the report ships. Turn open questions into falsifiable predictions and instrument future sessions lightly.

Prospective Kit

Why

Retrospective analysis establishes suspects, not verdicts. Confounders, missing data, and selection bias cap what any transcript audit can prove. The fix is cheap prospective measurement going forward.

Hypotheses to Test

Choose five to ten uncertain but potentially valuable claims about the subject's work style. Convert each to a falsifiable form:

HYPOTHESIS: planning before debugging reduces correction loops.

PREDICTION: comparable debugging tasks started with an explicit hypothesis tree will need fewer major reversals than ones started cold.

MEASURE: reversals per debugging episode, split by presence of a written hypothesis tree, over the next N episodes.

Good hypotheses come straight from the audit's LOW-confidence findings and its miscalibration list.

Light Instrumentation

For suitable higher-value tasks only - never interrupt routine actions - capture:

BEFORE: expected difficulty, expected solution path, confidence, expected completion route.

AFTER: actual result, surprise level, what changed the mental model, one-line lesson.

Total burden: under two minutes per captured task. If it feels heavy, it will be abandoned; cut fields before cutting compliance.

This data compounds: every month of BEFORE/AFTER pairs sharpens the next calibration-audit run.

Research Grounding

Keep methodology and sources separate from personal reports. Distinguish established peer-reviewed findings from emerging preprints in SOURCES.md. When a new behavioral claim enters the report, name the literature it agrees or disagrees with.

One-Line Memory

Retrospective finds suspects. Prospective runs the trial.