narrative-scenario

name	narrative-scenario
description	What is the story of each future? — Shell method narrative construction for rich qualitative scenario understanding
version	1.0.0
category	experiment-execution
type	strategy
sops	["scenario-driver-identification","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-impact-assessment","robustness-scoring","scenario-synthesis"]
tactics	["cross-consistency-filtering","strategy-robustness-testing"]
dependencies	{"sops":["robustness-scoring","scenario-driver-identification","scenario-impact-assessment","scenario-narrative-construction","scenario-synthesis"],"tactics":["cross-consistency-filtering","strategy-robustness-testing"]}

Strategy: Narrative Scenario

Methodology

Shell Scenario Method (Wack/van der Heijden). Construct rich, internally consistent narratives that illuminate qualitatively different futures. Focus on storytelling that reveals causal mechanisms and decision points rather than exhaustive enumeration.

Key principles:

• Narrative coherence: Each scenario tells a believable story with cause-and-effect logic
• Divergence: Scenarios must be qualitatively different, not variations on a theme
• Decision relevance: Scenarios illuminate choices the research team faces
• Memorable framing: Each scenario gets a vivid name that captures its essence

Execution Flow

1. Identify drivers → spawn scenario-driver-identification

   • Input: research context, planning horizon
   • Output: key uncertainty drivers ranked by impact × uncertainty

2. Select axes → identify the 2 highest-impact, highest-uncertainty drivers as scenario axes

   • Creates a 2×2 matrix of four qualitatively different futures

3. Construct narratives → spawn scenario-narrative-construction (×4)

   • Input: axis position, driver context, research approach
   • Output: rich narrative per quadrant

4. Assess impact → spawn scenario-impact-assessment (×4)

   • Input: scenario narrative, research approach
   • Output: impact analysis per scenario

5. Score robustness → spawn robustness-scoring

   • Input: all impact assessments
   • Output: robustness index

6. Synthesize → spawn scenario-synthesis

   • Input: all scenarios, robustness scores
   • Output: final report with strategic implications

Budget Gate

Step	Token Budget	Notes
Driver identification	8K	PESTEL scan
Axis selection	4K	Ranking and selection