occurrence-scoring

name	occurrence-scoring
description	Rate failure mode occurrence probability 1-10. Estimates how likely each failure mode is to manifest during research execution.
execution	subagent
prompt	./prompt.md
input	failure_modes (string), chains (string)
dependencies	{"sops":["spawn-agent"]}

Occurrence Scoring

Rates each failure mode's occurrence probability on a 1-10 scale.

Execution

Subagent — spawned via subagent-spawning/spawn-agent.

Why Subagent

Occurrence estimation requires probabilistic reasoning isolated from severity and detection considerations. Prevents halo effects.

Input

• failure_modes: Failure mode catalog
• chains: Cause chains (for root cause probability assessment)

Output

• scores: List of (failure_mode_id, occurrence_score, justification)
• uncertainty_flags: Modes where occurrence is highly uncertain

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

SOP	When to use
spawn-agent	Spawn a customized CC subagent with full MCP tool access. Used by SOPs that declare execution: subagent.