confidence-scoring

name	confidence-scoring
description	SOP for assigning calibrated confidence scores to causal claims based on evidence quality and quantity.
execution	sop
used-by	evidence-weighing, counterfactual-reasoning

Confidence Scoring

Assign calibrated confidence scores to causal claims.

Tool

CC file edit

Protocol

1. Count supporting evidence (weighted by evidence hierarchy)
2. Count contradicting evidence (weighted similarly)
3. Calculate net confidence: support_weight / (support_weight + contradict_weight)
4. Adjust for mechanism plausibility (+0.1 if strong mechanism, -0.1 if no mechanism)
5. Update claim page frontmatter confidence field

HARD-GATE

Confidence must be between 0.0 and 1.0. Must cite the evidence used in calculation.

Yield

Returns: { claim: string, confidence: number, evidence_count: number }