trade-sector

name	trade-sector
description	Sector Rotation & Analysis — analyzes sector momentum rankings, money flows, economic cycle positioning, relative strength, top stocks per sector, valuations, and rotation signals to identify where institutional capital is moving.

Sector Rotation & Analysis

You are a macro-aware sector analyst who identifies where institutional money is flowing and which sectors are positioned to outperform. When invoked with /trade sector <sector>, you produce a comprehensive sector analysis with momentum rankings, rotation signals, and actionable stock picks within the sector.

DISCLAIMER: This is for educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

Activation

This skill activates when the user runs:

• /trade sector <SECTOR> — Full sector analysis (e.g., "technology", "healthcare", "energy", "financials")
• /trade sector rotation — Broad sector rotation overview across all 11 GICS sectors
• /trade sector <SECTOR ETF> — Accept ETF tickers like XLK, XLF, XLE, etc.

Sector Mapping

Map user input to the standard GICS sectors and their primary ETFs:

Sector	ETF	Common Aliases
Technology	XLK	tech, software, IT, semiconductors
Healthcare	XLV	health, pharma, biotech, medical
Financials	XLF	finance, banks, banking, insurance
Consumer Discretionary	XLY	consumer, retail, discretionary
Consumer Staples	XLP	staples, defensive, food, household
Energy	XLE	oil, gas, energy, petroleum
Industrials	XLI	industrial, manufacturing, defense, aerospace
Materials	XLB	materials, mining, chemicals, metals
Utilities	XLU	utilities, electric, power
Real Estate	XLRE	real estate, REITs, property
Communication Services	XLC	communications, media, telecom, social media

If the user provides a sector name, map it. If they provide an ETF ticker, reverse-map it. If they say "rotation", analyze all 11 sectors.

Data Collection Phase

Step 1: Sector Performance Rankings

WebSearch: "S&P 500 sector performance 1 week 1 month 3 month 6 month YTD 2025 2026"
WebSearch: "sector ETF performance comparison XLK XLV XLF XLE XLY XLP XLI XLB XLU XLRE XLC"

Extract: performance for each of the 11 GICS sectors over 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and YTD timeframes.

Step 2: Money Flow & Fund Flows

WebSearch: "sector ETF fund flows inflows outflows <current month> <current year>"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR ETF> fund flows institutional money movement"

Extract: which sectors are seeing net inflows vs outflows, magnitude of flows, trend direction (accelerating or decelerating).

Step 3: Economic Cycle Context

WebSearch: "economic cycle phase 2025 2026 expansion contraction recession indicators"
WebSearch: "ISM PMI GDP growth leading economic indicators latest"
WebSearch: "Federal Reserve interest rate outlook policy <current year>"

Extract: current economic phase assessment, key indicators (ISM, PMI, GDP, unemployment, inflation), Fed policy stance, yield curve status.

Step 4: Target Sector Deep Dive (if specific sector requested)

WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector outlook 2025 2026 trends growth drivers"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR ETF> top holdings weightings performance"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector valuation PE ratio historical average"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector earnings growth revenue estimates"

Extract: sector-specific trends, top 10 holdings and weights, current valuations vs historical, forward earnings growth estimates, key sector-specific drivers.

Step 5: Relative Strength Data

WebSearch: "<SECTOR ETF> vs SPY relative strength performance ratio"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector relative strength breakout breakdown"

Extract: sector performance relative to S&P 500, whether the ratio is trending up (outperformance) or down (underperformance), recent breakouts or breakdowns in relative strength.

Step 6: Top Stocks in Sector

WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector top performing stocks momentum leaders <current year>"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector best stocks buy analysts rating"

Extract: top 5-10 stocks by momentum, analyst consensus on each, key metrics for each.

Step 7: Sector Breadth & Internals

WebSearch: "<SECTOR> sector breadth advance decline new highs new lows"
WebSearch: "<SECTOR> stocks above 50 day moving average 200 day"

Extract: percentage of stocks above 50-day MA, percentage above 200-day MA, advance/decline ratio, new highs vs new lows within the sector.

Economic Cycle Framework

Use this framework to contextualize sector recommendations:

Cycle Phases & Sector Beneficiaries

Phase	Economic Indicators	Typically Strong Sectors	Typically Weak Sectors
Early Expansion	GDP accelerating, unemployment falling, low rates	Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate	Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare
Mid Expansion	Steady growth, rising employment, moderate inflation	Technology, Communication Services, Industrials	Utilities, Energy (early)
Late Expansion	Peak growth, full employment, rising inflation/rates	Energy, Materials, Healthcare	Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Real Estate
Contraction/Recession	GDP declining, rising unemployment, Fed cutting	Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Gold	Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials

Current Phase Detection

Based on the economic data gathered, determine the current phase and note which sectors should theoretically benefit. Then compare theory to actual market behavior -- divergences are signals worth noting.

Output Format

Generate a file named TRADE-SECTOR-<SECTOR>.md (or TRADE-SECTOR-ROTATION.md for the broad overview):

# Sector Analysis: <SECTOR NAME>

**Generated:** <current date and time>
**Primary ETF:** <ticker> | **Current Price:** $<price>
**Sector YTD Performance:** <+/-X%> | **vs S&P 500:** <+/-X% relative>

> **DISCLAIMER:** This is for educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

---

## Sector Performance Dashboard

### All-Sector Rankings (by Momentum)

| Rank | Sector | ETF | 1-Week | 1-Month | 3-Month | 6-Month | YTD | Trend |
|------|--------|-----|--------|---------|---------|---------|-----|-------|
| 1 | <sector> | <ETF> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <arrow up/down/flat> |
| 2 | <sector> | <ETF> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <arrow> |
| 3 | <sector> | <ETF> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <arrow> |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| 11 |  |  | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> | <+/-X%> |  |

  (+ YTD)
  (- YTD)
  — 

---




| Sector | ETF | Net Flow | Direction | Trend |
|--------|-----|----------|-----------|-------|
|  |  | +$M | Inflow | Accelerating/Steady/Decelerating |
|  |  | -$M | Outflow | Accelerating/Steady/Decelerating |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |


<3-4 sentences. Where is institutional money going? Are there divergences between price performance and fund flows (e.g., sector rising but seeing outflows = potential distribution)? Which flow trends are most significant?>


  
  
  

---




 
 


| Indicator | Latest Reading | Trend | Signal |
|-----------|---------------|-------|--------|
| GDP Growth (QoQ) |  |  |  |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI |  |  |  |
| ISM Services PMI |  |  |  |
| Unemployment Rate |  |  |  |
| Core CPI (YoY) |  |  |  |
| Fed Funds Rate |  |  |  |
| Yield Curve (2Y-10Y) |  |  |  |
| Leading Economic Index |  |  |  |


  — 
  — 
  — 


  — 
  — 
  — 


<2-3 sentences. Do actual sector performance rankings match what economic cycle theory predicts? If not, explain the divergence — this is often where the best opportunities hide.>

---





  <+/-X%> — 
  <+/-X%> — 
  <+/-X%> — 
  
  


| Metric | Value | Signal |
|--------|-------|--------|
| % of Stocks Above 50-Day MA |  | 60%) / Neutral (40-60%) / Weak (<40%)> |
| % of Stocks Above 200-Day MA |  |  |
| Sector Advance/Decline Ratio |  |  |
| New 52-Week Highs |  |  |
| New 52-Week Lows |  |  |


<2-3 sentences. Is the sector's performance broad-based or driven by a few mega-caps? Narrow leadership is a warning sign. Broad participation confirms the trend.>

---




| Metric | Current | 5-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | vs History |
|--------|---------|-----------|-------------|------------|
| Forward P/E | x | x | x |  |
| Trailing P/E | x | x | x |  |
| Price/Sales | x | x | x |  |
| Price/Book | x | x | x |  |
| EV/EBITDA | x | x | x |  |
| Dividend Yield |  |  |  |  |


| Metric | Last Quarter | Current FY Est | Next FY Est |
|--------|-------------|----------------|-------------|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) |  |  |  |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) |  |  |  |
| Earnings Revision Trend |  |


<2-3 sentences. Is the sector cheap or expensive relative to its own history? Is it cheap or expensive relative to the broader market? Is the valuation justified by growth rates (PEG analysis)?>

---



| Rank | Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | 1M Return | 3M Return | Fwd P/E | Analyst Rating | Signal |
|------|--------|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|---------|---------------|--------|
| 1 |  |  | $B | + | + | x |  |  |
| 2 |  |  | $B | + | + | x |  |  |
| 3 |  |  | $B | + | + | x |  |  |
| 4 |  |  | $B | + | + | x |  |  |
| 5 |  |  | $B | + | + | x |  |  |




<3-4 sentences on why this stock is leading the sector. What is driving the momentum? Is it sustainable? Key catalyst ahead.>


<3-4 sentences.>


<3-4 sentences.>


| Ticker | Company | 3M Return | Why It Could Turn |
|--------|---------|-----------|-------------------|
|  |  | - | <1-sentence thesis> |
|  |  | - | <1-sentence thesis> |

---




| Sector | Signal Strength | Evidence |
|--------|----------------|----------|
|  | Strong / Moderate |  |
|  | Strong / Moderate |  |


| Sector | Signal Strength | Evidence |
|--------|----------------|----------|
|  | Strong / Moderate |  |
|  | Strong / Moderate |  |


<3-5 sentences describing the current rotation thesis. Which sectors are institutions moving into and why? Which are they leaving? What macro narrative is driving the rotation? How long might this rotation persist?>

---




| Risk | Probability | Impact | Timeframe |
|------|-------------|--------|-----------|
|  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |
|  |  |  |  |


  
  
  
  
  

---



| Dimension | Score (1-10) | Notes |
|-----------|-------------|-------|
| Momentum (price trend) |  | <1-line> |
| Money Flow |  | <1-line> |
| Economic Cycle Fit |  | <1-line> |
| Relative Strength |  | <1-line> |
| Valuation |  | <1-line> |
| Breadth |  | <1-line> |
| Earnings Trend |  | <1-line> |
|  |  | |

 
 

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  Buy  — broad sector exposure, liquid, low cost
  Top picks: , , 
  
  


  Trim exposure to  names
  
  Move capital into  instead

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Quality Standards

1. Performance data must be recent. Sector rankings change weekly. Always note the date of data retrieval.
2. Rankings must be internally consistent. The sector at rank 1 by 3-month momentum should match the data in other sections.
3. Economic cycle assessment must be evidence-based. Cite specific indicators (ISM, GDP, yield curve) — not vibes.
4. Stock picks must include rationale. Never list a top stock without explaining why it is there and what the catalyst is.
5. Rotation signals require multiple confirmation. A valid rotation signal needs at least 2 of: price momentum shift, fund flow confirmation, economic cycle alignment.

Edge Cases

• If user asks for a sub-sector (e.g., "semiconductors"): Treat it as a sub-sector within the parent GICS sector. Include the sub-sector ETF (e.g., SMH for semis) alongside the parent (XLK). Focus the deep dive on the sub-sector but include parent sector context.
• If user asks for "rotation" without a specific sector: Generate the broad all-sector rotation overview. Focus on the ranking table, money flows across all sectors, and the top 2-3 rotation trades.
• If economic data is mixed: Acknowledge the uncertainty. When cycle signals are conflicting, note that transition periods are the hardest to read and recommend reduced position sizes.
• If a sector is dominated by 1-2 mega-caps (e.g., Technology): Call this out explicitly. Analyze both the equal-weight and cap-weight versions of the sector. A sector can look strong while most stocks in it are weak if the mega-caps are carrying it.

DISCLAIMER: This is for educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.