all-in-one-finance-skills

name

all-in-one-finance-skills

description

Use when user mentions ticker symbols, tokens, forex pairs, commodities, portfolio, trade, DCF, valuation, technical analysis, on-chain metrics, risk management, position sizing, financial reports, market sentiment, macro liquidity, earnings, crypto forensics, or any investment analysis query. Also triggers on "should I buy/sell", "analyze this stock", "what's the market doing", "build a hedge", "check my portfolio risk", or financial compliance questions.

All-in-One Finance Agent Skill Suite

Overview

Institutional-grade modular finance intelligence system covering equities, crypto, forex, commodities, fixed income, and derivatives. Enforces evidence tiering, anti-bias checks, and pre-trade risk gates for every actionable output.

Core principle: Every recommendation requires T1/T2 evidence backing. No T3-only signals. No skipping risk gates. No bias unchecked.

When to Use

digraph finance_trigger {
    "User mentions financial asset?" [shape=diamond];
    "Equity query?" [shape=diamond];
    "Crypto query?" [shape=diamond];
    "Forex/Commodity?" [shape=diamond];
    "Portfolio/Risk?" [shape=diamond];
    "Load equity modules" [shape=box];
    "Load crypto modules" [shape=box];
    "Load macro/forex modules" [shape=box];
    "Load risk-guardian" [shape=box];
    
    "User mentions financial asset?" -> "Equity query?" [label="yes"];
    "User mentions financial asset?" -> "Crypto query?" [label="yes"];
    "User mentions financial asset?" -> "Forex/Commodity?" [label="yes"];
    "User mentions financial asset?" -> "Portfolio/Risk?" [label="yes"];
    "Equity query?" -> "Load equity modules" [label="yes"];
    "Crypto query?" -> "Load crypto modules" [label="yes"];
    "Forex/Commodity?" -> "Load macro/forex modules" [label="yes"];
    "Portfolio/Risk?" -> "Load risk-guardian" [label="yes"];
}

Trigger keywords: $TICKER, BTC, ETH, EUR/USD, gold, oil, DCF, P/E, RSI, MACD, MVRV, NUPL, Fed, ECB, BoJ, carry trade, position size, Kelly, stop loss, drawdown, 10-K, earnings, whale, on-chain, sentiment, Fear & Greed, portfolio, hedge, correlation, beta, options, puts, calls, futures, contango, backwardation.

When NOT to use: Personal budgeting, non-market financial advice, tax preparation (use specialized tax skills).

---

Module Registry

Module	Domain	Trigger Keywords	File
fin-equity-fundamental	Equities	DCF, earnings, P/E, ROE, FCF, moat, 10-K, revenue quality	references/equity-fundamental.md
fin-equity-technical	Equities	RSI, MACD, bollinger, support, resistance, breakout, candlestick	references/equity-technical.md
fin-crypto-onchain	Crypto	MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH, STH, exchange flow, whale, HODL	references/crypto-onchain.md
fin-crypto-forensic	Crypto	hack, trace, taint, OSINT, wallet, Chainalysis, sanctions	references/crypto-forensic.md
fin-macro-liquidity	Macro	Fed, SOFR, MOVE, yield curve, QT, QE, yen carry, Dollar Smile	references/macro-liquidity.md
fin-sentiment-engine	Cross-Asset	Fear & Greed, NAAIM, AAII, funding rate, social, alternatives	references/sentiment-engine.md
fin-forex-matrix	Forex	EUR/USD, carry trade, central bank, DXY, interest rate diff	references/forex-matrix.md
fin-commodity-cycle	Commodities	oil, gold, copper, contango, backwardation, inventory, EIA	references/commodity-cycle.md
fin-fixed-income	Fixed Income	bonds, duration, convexity, credit spread, Z-spread, yield	references/fixed-income.md
fin-options-derivatives	Derivatives	options, Greeks, implied vol, put/call, futures, swaps	references/options-derivatives.md
fin-risk-guardian	Risk	position size, Kelly, VaR, CVaR, stop loss, drawdown, correlation	references/risk-guardian.md

---

RED FLAGS — STOP and Verify Evidence

• Recommendation with only T3 (opinion) sources
• Skipping Pre-Trade Risk Gate for "quick trades"
• Conviction >0.8 without T1 evidence
• Ignoring 2+ red flags from Anti-Bias Checklist
• Position size exceeding portfolio risk limits
• Backtesting with <30 samples then claiming edge
• Using "spirit not letter" to bypass evidence tiers
• Correlation >0.7 with existing positions but no reduction

All of these mean: STOP. Re-run gates. Gather T1/T2 evidence.

---

Evidence Standards (Non-Negotiable)

Tier	Type	Weight	Verification	Examples
T1	Primary source	1.0	Direct URL + hash	SEC filings, on-chain data, earnings transcripts, smart contract code, central bank statements
T2	Factual secondary	0.7	Cross-reference 2+ sources	Bloomberg, Reuters, exchange order books, certified audits, blockchain explorers
T3	Opinion/social	0.3	Flag "speculative"	Analyst reports, Twitter/X, Discord, newsletters, YouTube

Rules:

1. No actionable recommendation (buy/sell/hedge) on T3-only evidence
2. Conviction score >0.5 requires ≥50% T1/T2 weighted evidence
3. Every T3 claim must be paired with T1/T2 disconfirming evidence search
4. Always disclose evidence composition in output

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Anti-Bias Checklist (Run Before Every Recommendation)

6 Cognitive Traps

• Confirmation bias — Did I actively seek disconfirming evidence?
• Anchoring — Am I over-weighting first price/number seen?
• Recency bias — Am I ignoring 3+ year historical context?
• Herd mentality — Is consensus baked into my thesis without challenge?
• Sunk cost — Am I defending a prior call to avoid loss?
• Overconfidence — Is my conviction score calibrated to evidence quality?

10 Financial Red Flags (Scan Every Asset)

1. Revenue recognition changes / channel stuffing
2. Related-party transactions >5% revenue
3. Auditor changes or qualified opinions
4. Short interest spikes (>20% float in 30 days)
5. Insider selling clusters (3+ insiders in 90 days)
6. Covenant breaches or debt waivers
7. Whistleblower reports or SEC investigations
8. Off-balance-sheet SPVs or guarantees
9. Related-party leases or management contracts
10. Sudden CFO/audit committee turnover

---

Pre-Trade Risk Gate (5 Gates — All Must Pass)

Gate 1: Liquidity
  → Daily volume ≥ 10× position size?
  → Spread <0.5% (equities) / <0.1% (crypto large-cap)?
  → Market cap check: >$1B FULL | $100M–$1B REDUCED | <$100M SKIP

Gate 2: Correlation
  → 90d rolling correlation vs. portfolio <0.7?
  → Sector concentration <30% at full Kelly?
  → No >20% in single correlated cluster?

Gate 3: Sentiment Alignment
  → Fear & Greed >80 → no full-size longs (REDUCED)
  → Fear & Greed <15 → contrarian longs valid, shorts SKIP
  → Entry aligns with 20-day momentum?

Gate 4: Memory Recall (OWM Query)
  → "Similar macro + sentiment setups in past 2 years?"
  → 3+ negative outcomes → REDUCED
  → Behavioral drift detected → SKIP until review

Gate 5: Regulatory
  → Asset legal in user jurisdiction?
  → US: SEC/CFTC status, not unregistered security
  → EU: MiFID II appropriateness, ESMA limits
  → OFAC SDN list check (crypto wallet screening)

Output: FULL (proceed) | REDUCED (half size) | SKIP (block)

---

Query Classification (Step 1)

Before analysis, classify:

1. Asset Class: Equity / Crypto / Forex / Commodity / Fixed Income / Multi-Asset
2. Analysis Type: Fundamental / Technical / Sentiment / Forensic / Risk / Forecast
3. Complexity: Simple (1 module) / Composite (2–4 modules) / Full Framework (5+ modules)
4. User Profile: Retail (simplified) / Professional (full depth) / Quant (model-ready)

Then load only the relevant reference files identified.

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Composition Workflows (Step 2)

Equity Deep Dive

fin-equity-fundamental → fin-equity-technical → fin-sentiment-engine → fin-risk-guardian

Crypto Cycle Positioning

fin-crypto-onchain + fin-macro-liquidity + fin-sentiment-engine → fin-risk-guardian

Crypto Bottom Signal

fin-crypto-onchain (NUPL <0) + fin-sentiment-engine (Fear <15) → conviction score

Forensic Alert Response

fin-crypto-forensic (drain/hack) → fin-news-aggregator → fin-risk-guardian (hedge)

Multi-Asset Hedge

fin-macro-liquidity + fin-forex-matrix + fin-commodity-cycle + fin-risk-guardian

Fixed Income Relative Value

fin-fixed-income + fin-macro-liquidity → credit spread analysis → fin-risk-guardian

Options Strategy

fin-options-derivatives + fin-equity-technical (timing) → fin-risk-guardian (Greeks check)

---

Structured Output (Step 3)

Every response follows this structure (adapt depth to complexity):

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (3 bullets max)
   → Signal direction, conviction score, key catalyst

2. THESIS & VARIANT VIEW
   → Core bull/bear case
   → What could prove this wrong? (pre-mortem)

3. EVIDENCE MAP (tiered with URLs)
   → T1: [source] — [finding] — [URL]
   → T2: [source] — [finding] — [URL]
   → T3: [source] — [finding] — FLAG speculative

4. VALUATION / SCORE MATRIX
   → Quantified signals from each module
   → Fair value range (bear/base/bull)

5. RISK FACTORS
   → Bull / Base / Bear probabilities
   → Top 3 risks with mitigation

6. ACTION PLAN
   → Entry: $[price] or signal trigger
   → Exit: $[price] or thesis break
   → Stop: $[price] or [X%] drawdown
   → Size: [X%] portfolio (gate result)
   → Horizon: [days/weeks/months]

7. LOGIC CHAIN (for macro/event-driven)
   → Causal transmission diagram
   → Feedback loops and second-order effects

Quick query format (e.g., "what's BTC sentiment?"): Bullets 1 + 4 + 6 only.

---

Composure Under Pressure (Rationalization Defense)

Violating the letter of the rules is violating the spirit of the rules.

Excuse	Reality
"Quick trade, skip gates"	Gates protect from liquid losses. No exceptions.
"T3 source is reliable analyst"	T3 weight is 0.3 regardless of reputation. Get T1/T2.
"I already know this asset"	Memory != evidence. Run current gates.
"Market is moving fast"	Fast markets = more need for gates, not less.
"Small position, low risk"	Small positions compound. Gates apply regardless.
"Spirit not letter"	Spirit violations ARE letter violations. Both forbidden.

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Compliance & Disclaimers

⚠️ All analyses are for educational and research purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Assets may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Options, futures, and crypto carry substantial risk of loss.

Append this disclaimer to ANY output containing:

• Specific buy/sell/hedge recommendations
• Position sizing suggestions
• Portfolio allocation advice
• Options/futures strategies

---

Reference File Loading Strategy

DO NOT load all files at once. Load on-demand:

• Equity analysis: equity-fundamental.md + equity-technical.md
• Crypto analysis: crypto-onchain.md + crypto-forensic.md
• Macro research: macro-liquidity.md + forex-matrix.md + commodity-cycle.md
• Risk assessment: risk-guardian.md + fixed-income.md
• Derivatives: options-derivatives.md + algo-execution.md
• Reporting: report-orchestrator.md + predictor-kronos.md
• Data/News: news-aggregator.md + sentiment-engine.md
• Audit/Review: memory-protocol.md

---

Quick Reference: Asset Class Decision Tree

digraph asset_class {
    "Ticker with $?" [shape=diamond];
    "Crypto keywords?" [shape=diamond];
    "Forex pair format?" [shape=diamond];
    "Commodity name?" [shape=diamond];
    "Bond/fixed income?" [shape=diamond];
    "Equity" [shape=box];
    "Crypto" [shape=box];
    "Forex" [shape=box];
    "Commodity" [shape=box];
    "Fixed Income" [shape=box];
    "Multi-Asset" [shape=box];
    
    "Ticker with $?" -> "Crypto keywords?" [label="no"];
    "Ticker with $?" -> "Equity" [label="yes"];
    "Crypto keywords?" -> "Forex pair format?" [label="no"];
    "Crypto keywords?" -> "Crypto" [label="yes"];
    "Forex pair format?" -> "Commodity name?" [label="no"];
    "Forex pair format?" -> "Forex" [label="yes"];
    "Commodity name?" -> "Bond/fixed income?" [label="no"];
    "Commodity name?" -> "Commodity" [shape=box] [label="yes"];
    "Bond/fixed income?" -> "Multi-Asset" [label="no"];
    "Bond/fixed income?" -> "Fixed Income" [label="yes"];
}