statistical-method-design

name	statistical-method-design
description	Design statistical methods, baselines, diagnostics, variants, and ablations that directly address a formal problem formulation.
metadata	{"category":"domain","trigger-keywords":"method proposal,estimator,algorithm,baseline,ablation,diagnostic,statistical method","applicable-stages":"3,4,5,6,7,8","priority":"1"}

Statistical Method Design

Overview

Use this skill after formal problem formulation. The method should be a response to the formal target and assumptions, not a generic collection of techniques.

Required Method Proposal

For each method:

• Name
• Problem it solves
• Formula or algorithm
• Inputs and outputs
• Tuning parameters
• Required assumptions
• Diagnostics
• Expected failure modes
• Computational cost
• Relation to baselines

Baselines and Ablations

Always define meaningful baselines:

• Classical or standard method
• Naive or unadjusted method
• Oracle or idealized reference when available
• Robust variant
• Ablation removing the key design feature

Method-to-Claim Map

Every method must connect to at least one claim:

method_to_claim_map:
  proposed_method:
    claims: [C1, C2]
    expected_evidence: "lower risk under stress condition"
    theory_target: "consistency under assumptions A1-A3"